Real Madrid take on Barcelona in a two-legged El Clásico semi-final of the Copa del Rey. Liam Kelly provides a best bet for the opener.
Football betting tips: Copa del Rey
1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Betfred)
Semi-finals are always a better spectacle, no?
If you think the same, you'll be more than happy with the draw for the Copa del Rey last four — a two-legged El Clásico bout to decide who reaches the Spanish cup final.
Barcelona, the away side in this opener, will be relieved that the second leg is over a month after this game given their current situation.
Already hit by crucial injuries to Pedri and Ousmane Dembélé, Barca will now be without star striker Robert Lewandowski after he picked up an injury in the desperately disappointing 1-0 defeat to Almería at the weekend (xG: ALM 1.22 - 1.91 FCB).
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
TV Channel: BT Sport 1
Real Madrid 10/11 | Draw 5/2 | Barcelona 29/10
Granted, Real Madrid are dealing with injuries themselves, but they've dealt with absences far better than their old rivals recently.
It does give me pause as to picking Real to win this match-up at the Bernabéu, however, especially at odds-on. Games between these two are difficult to predict at the best of times.
Instead, UNDER 2.5 GOALS makes appeal at a best-priced 11/10 with Betfred.
Barcelona's defence has been assured this season, despite the odd lapse, conceding just eight goals total in La Liga and holding opponents to an average of 0.94 expected goals against (xGA).
Real are undoubtedly Barca's stiffest task when it comes to keeping an opponent quiet, but the carrot of a second leg at the Camp Nou under better circumstances should be enough to eliminate simple mistakes that have cost them at the back recently.
Carlo Ancelotti's side may well have been created chances at an excellent rate recently, but a soft La Liga schedule alongside the ease of playing Liverpool of late suggest those numbers are inflated.
They're also a fairly stout defensive side, allowing just 18 goals and an average of 1.03 xGA per game across 23 league games.
Although it's not good news for the neutral, unders looks the value play in a tough tie to call.
Real Madrid v Barcelona best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Betfred)
Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-0 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1000 GMT (01/03/23)
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