Reading host Middlesbrough in the Saturday lunchtime Sky Bet Championship game and Michael Beardmore has a preview and two best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
2pts Both teams to score at 10/11 (Mansion Bet)
1pt John Swift to score anytime at 14/5 (Unibet)
Points deductions are strange things – it’s amazing how they can galvanise a team.
Derby responded to entering administration by unexpectedly beating Stoke. Two seasons ago, Wigan went on a storming run after having 12 points taken off them, even if it was not quite enough to survive.
Reading are the latest side with the spectre of a deduction hanging over them – yet they have won two and drawn one of their past three, including a superb victory at promotion favourites Fulham.
Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Reading 15/8 | Draw 23/10 | Middlesbrough 29/20
Whether they can keep that form going is a different matter, although I’m surprised to see them second favourites at home to middling Middlesbrough.
Both sides – 14th and 16th in the Championship respectively – are a bit too up-and-down to back with any certainty however, even if the 15/8 Sky Bet offer on the Royals is tempting.
That must be balanced out by the fact that only once in eight games this season have Reading won the Expected Goals battle – indeed, they are 23rd in the Infogol table using such metrics, and surely cannot keep overachieving.
Playing it safer, we can head to the goals markets, with Reading currently the goal kings – for and against – in the second tier.
Their matches have averaged 4.13 goals per game this term and seven of their eight encounters have seen both teams score – entertainment is certainly not in short supply. Only two teams have scored more than the Royals but none have let in more.
Middlesbrough are short at the back with injuries while Reading are hot going forward but have not kept a clean sheet all season and are conceding more than two goals per game.
All of that combined makes BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE look very appealing at 10/11 with Mansion Bet.
I also can’t ignore Royals midfielder John Swift’s amazing scoring record this season, seven goals in his opening eight games.
Injuries to forwards Lucas Joao, Yakou Meite and Femi Azeez have left Reading looking to other sources for goals – and Swift has not let them down.
He’s a triple threat – he takes penalties, takes free-kicks and scores from open play – which is why I was surprised to see him 8/1 to open the scoring here with Bet365.
That’s a nice play but I’m going to go slightly safer with the 14/5 Unibet offer on SWIFT TO SCORE ANYTIME – he’s almost half that price elsewhere and Infogol's model calculates he has a 33% chance of netting, implied odds of 2/1, so 14/5 is value.
Reading v Middlesbrough score prediction and best bets
- 2pts Both teams to score at 10/11 (Mansion Bet)
- 1pt John Swift to score anytime at 14/5 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Reading 2-2 Middlesbrough (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct 1300 BST (22/09/21)
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