German football expert Tom Carnduff previews Bayern Munich's trip to Leipzig, picking out three best bets, including an 8/1 shot.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
1.5pts Bayern Munich to beat RB Leipzig at 6/5 (General)
1pt Leon Goretzka to score anytime at 8/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
1pt Leon Goretzka to assist 1+ goals at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
The current champions travel to face one of their main challengers in the weekend’s headline fixture as Leipzig welcome Bayern on Saturday night. It’s one of the rare occasions that you can get the Bavarians at an odds-against price.
This game has added interest following Julian Naglesmann’s switch of club in the summer and he’ll largely be pleased with what he’s seen from his Bayern side so far - although they haven’t fully understood the system yet.
While they sit 10th, Leipzig can consider themselves unlucky not to have more than the one win on their tally - Infogol’s model based on performance has them sat in 2nd. That same metric puts Bayern first.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
RB Leipzig 2/1 | Draw 11/4 | Bayern Munich 11/10
On the whole, meetings between these two have been fairly low-scoring if we ignore the 3-3 draw from last season. It’s also a contest that Leipzig have won just once - current Premier League duo Naby Keita and Timo Werner were on target in a 2-1 victory in March 2018.
The outright result is often best avoided in Bayern games because the odds are always in their favour. However, with 6/5 available across the board, there’s rare value in BAYERN MUNICH TO WIN.
Leipzig will come good this season and I remain confident in their ability to be the best of the rest, but you have to take Bayern whenever odds of above even money are available with virtually every bookmaker.
Of course, it wouldn’t be a Sporting Life Bayern preview without a mention of Leon Goretzka, but he is too good to ignore based on his showings during the international break.
In three games for Germany, Goretzka returned four assists and saw VAR deny him a goal. He doesn’t have an assist in the Bundesliga yet but that international form provides confidence that one can come here.
Due to the difficulty of the game, the huge 11/2 on GORETZKA TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS is worth taking alongside the Bayern win.
The midfielder registered five league assists last season - and while we can debate if he’s more suited to a Hansi Flick following those recent performances for Die Mannschaft - it underlines his attacking threat.
Ten shots in three Bundesliga outings during 2021/22 has brought 0.75 xG and I’m amazed by the 8/1 on GORETZKA TO SCORE ANYTIME.
A tip that is often looked at in Bayern games but one that has delivered and one that continues to amaze me in terms of how generous the odds are - he scored five from 3.79 xG in the league last season.
RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Bayern Munich to beat RB Leipzig at 6/5 (General)
- 1pt Leon Goretzka to score anytime at 8/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
- 1pt Leon Goretzka to assist 1+ goals at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Leipzig 0-2 Bayern (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
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