Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt PSV to win at 31/20 (bet365, Betfair)
It’s a dead-rubber at the Philips Stadion.
Arsenal head to the Netherlands, top spot in Group B already secured and PSV Eindhoven will finish in second due to their superior head-to-head record, regardless of what happens between Lens and Sevilla.
PSV booked their place in the knockout stages in spectacular fashion, coming from two goals down to win in Seville. Ricardo Pepi bagged a stoppage-time winner in a five-goal thriller that also saw two red cards.
Last round, the Gunners recorded their largest win in the Champions League since 2007/08 by beating Lens 6-0. It has afforded Mikel Arteta the luxury of resting and rotating here, with most of his big hitters rumoured to be sitting out this trip.
What are the best bets?
Brighton and Liverpool loom, so Arteta is expected to shuffle his deck. Combined with PSV’s imperious form, backing the hosts TO WIN appeals.
PSV's defeat in the reverse fixture is their only loss in 25 games in all competitions this season and they are yet to drop a single point in the Eredivisie, taking 45 points from a possible 45.
Having won their last eight matches, maintaining momentum will be a priority for Peter Bosz despite the outcome being technically meaningless.
- PSV to win
- Both teams to score
- Jorginho to be carded
- Luuk de Jong to score anytime
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PSV striker LUUK DE JONG has scored 17 goals in 24 Eredivisie and Champions League appearances this season and is the man most likely to fire them to victory against an Arsenal team likely to rotate, which should mean JORGINHO - booked in the Gunners' trip to Sevilla - comes into midfield.
Team news
PSV's Hirving Lozano will serve a one-match suspension here, even though the winger is unavailable with an injury anyway. Noa Lang, Armel Bella-Kotchap and Jordan Teze all missed out at the weekend due to injuries and remain doubtful.
Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli did not train on Monday, so it is unlikely either will feature. Leandro Trossard and Reiss Nelson will likely flank Eddie Nketiah in attack.
Predicted line-ups
PSV: Benitez; Dest, Ramalho, Boscagli, Van Aanholt; Saibari, Veerman, Til; Bakayoko, De Jong, Pepi.
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Kiwior, Zinchenko; Odegaard, Jorginho, Rice; Nelson, Nketiah, Trossard.
Match facts
- PSV have won just two of their nine UEFA European games against Arsenal (D3 L4), losing 4-0 earlier this season in the Champions League. Both wins, however, have come in their last two home games: 1-0 in the 2006-07 Champions League and 2-0 in last season’s Europa League.
- Arsenal are winless in their last three major European visits to the Netherlands (D1 L2) since a 2-1 win at Ajax in September 2005 in the UEFA Champions League.
- PSV are unbeaten on home soil in the UEFA Champions League this season (W1 D1), last going a full group stage undefeated at home in 2015-16 under Phillip Cocu, when they won all three games.
- Arsenal have already won their UEFA Champions League group, winning four of their five matches so far. Only once have they won five of their group stage games in a single campaign, doing so in 2005-06 when they reached the final for the first and only time.
- PSV have won their last two UEFA Champions League matches, as many as they had in their previous 22 (D9 L11). They last won three in a row in the 2006-07 group stages, in a campaign they would eventually reach the quarter-final after eliminating Arsenal.
- Arsenal have scored in each of their last 22 UEFA Champions League group stage matches, since a 2-0 loss against Borussia Dortmund in September 2014. No side has netted more goals than the Gunners this season, while only twice have they scored more in a single group stage than their 15 this term (18 in both 2010-11 and 2016-17).
- PSV’s Noa Lang has been involved in 13 shots following a ball carry in the UEFA Champions League this season (9 shots, 4 chances created), second only to Rodrygo (15 – 10 shots, 5 chances created).
- Luuk de Jong has scored in each of his last six home UEFA European matches for PSV (six goals), a run that spans four matches in the UEFA Champions League and two in the Europa League, the longest ever home scoring run by a PSV player in their major European history.
- With three goals and four assists, Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka has been involved in more UEFA Champions League goals than any other player this season. His seven goal involvements is also already the most by an Arsenal player in their debut campaign in the competition.
- Gabriel Jesus has scored in all four of his UEFA Champions League games for Arsenal, and could become the first Gunner ever to score in five in a row in the competition. He has six goal involvements this term (4 goals, 2 assists), only managing more in a single campaign in 2019-20 (9).
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (11/12/23)
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