Sky Bet Championship side Preston host Tottenham on Saturday night, and Tom Carnduff has found value in the stats markets.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1.5pts Preston to have 9+ total shots at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
A potentially tricky tie for Spurs on Saturday evening, with the inconsistent Preston standing in their way and the fifth round of the FA Cup.
Ryan Lowe's side sit 11th in the Sky Bet Championship table but remain well in the mix for a play-off position - that's despite a recent inability to put together a winning run.
The talk around Tottenham will be on potential incomings with reinforcements needed in the days before the deadline passes. This could well be a contest that underlines the need for new faces.
I'm not going to touch on the result too much in this preview as it's included in the fourth round shocks piece - WHICH YOU CAN READ HERE.
Basically, I don't like the showings of either side on a consistent basis to take Tottenham at such a short price. This is a team who narrowly got past Sky Bet League One outfit Portsmouth at home a couple of weeks ago.
As you'd expect, the markets are heavily favoured towards Tottenham, which does open up value in siding with the hosts to have their chances to strike.
While they aren't the highest shot takers in England's second-tier, the 5/4 available on PRESTON TO HAVE 9+ TOTAL SHOTS is good enough to tempt us in.
This is more on Tottenham than anything. They sit fourth for average shots conceded in the Premier League this season (14.2) with the number jumping up to 15.5 in games on the road.
They've conceded at least nine shots in 14 of their 15 competitive away games - the only one that fell short being at struggling Bournemouth.
Game state may also come into play here if the contest is as close as it was in the last round. Expected changes for the visitors - particularly in the defensive and midfield areas - should allow Preston a way in.
Remember this is anything that counts as a shot, they don't have to be on target. The 11.0 average is by no means the highest in the Championship, the same applies to the 12.2 in home games, but Preston can capitalise on Spurs' current issues.
Preston v Tottenham best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Preston to have 9+ total shots at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Preston 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1415 GMT (25/01/23)
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