Premier League tips: Man City v Stoke City preview

Recommended bet: Wednesday Premier League

1pt Manchester City to beat Stoke and both teams to score at 37/20 – this bet has won in each of Manchester City’s last five victories at home 

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Manchester City v Stoke (2000 GMT – Sky Sports 1)

I previewed Manchester City’s trip to Sunderland on Sunday and providing a verdict on Pep Guardiola’s men hosting Stoke City on Wednesday night feels like a very similar task. 

At the Stadium of Light, my tip for Manchester City to score two or more goals in the first half at 41/20 was the subject of late disappointment as David Silva’s effort was ruled out for offside after Sergio Aguero had put the visitors in front. 

Leroy Sane went on to net after the break to give Manchester City a comfortable 2-0 win and it’s hard to see anything other than a simple victory for Guardiola’s side once again when the Potters arrive at the Etihad Stadium. 

Manchester City have won seven of their last eight games, only slipping up in that run when drawing 0-0 at Huddersfield in the FA Cup before winning the replay 5-1.

The goals have been flowing too. Guardiola’s charges have collected 5-3, 5-1, 5-0, 4-0 and 3-0 victories during their opening 12 contests of 2017 and only Everton have defeated the top-four contenders so far this year. 

Nothing about Stoke’s season so far suggests they will be side to stop the rampant hosts at the Etihad. 

Mark Hughes’ men have lost five of their last six away games, winning 3-1 at Sunderland back in January for their only recent success on the road, and that stretch includes convincing defeats at Tottenham, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal. 

The Potters have won back-to-back home games against Crystal Palace and Middlesbrough but they’ve proved to be a long way short of the Premier League’s big-hitters this term, Burnley in 12th are the top-performing team they've beaten, so the key on Wednesday is how best to get with the home side as odds-on favourites for the victory. 

Manchester City to win and over 2.5 goals to be scored is a strong shout but it’s only best odds of 4/6 for that outcome so I’ll look instead to a 37/20 suggestion with BetStars to get some value in a victory for the hosts. 

Guardiola’s side have conceded in each of their last five wins at home (against Arsenal, Burnley, Swansea, Monaco and Huddersfield) and they’ve only been able to keep one clean sheet in their previous 13 outings at the Etihad Stadium. 

They’ve tightened up on the road since the year, bar the 4-0 capitulation at Everton, but the opposition can get at them on their own turf and that leads me to back Manchester City to win and both teams to score. 

Stoke have managed to net on the road at Chelsea (scoring two goals), Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester United this term and I think they can cause the odds-on favourites a few problems at the back. 

The Potters won’t be able to keep the home side’s attacking stars quiet but they can at least create a few chances while falling to defeat. 

Prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Stoke City 

Opta facts: 

o Manchester City have won three of their last four Premier League games against Stoke (L1), netting exactly four goals in each victory. 

o Stoke have scored just one goal in their eight Premier League visits to the Etihad, in a 1-0 win in August 2014. o Stoke have suffered five defeats in their last six Premier League away matches (W1 D0 L5). 

o Sergio Aguero has scored eight goals in seven Premier League appearances against the Potters – only against Newcastle (11) and Tottenham (10) has he scored more in the competition. 

o Pep Guardiola’s side won the reverse fixture 4-1 at the bet365 Stadium – but Manchester City haven’t done the league double over Stoke since they were in the third tier together in 1998-99. 

o At least one player has scored a brace in each of the last four Premier League meetings between these sides (Nolito, Kelechi Iheanacho, Marko Arnautovic and Sergio Aguero x2). 

o Leroy Sane has scored six goals from just eight shots on target in all competitions for Manchester City this season and the German has now netted in three successive appearances. 

o Willy Caballero has kept as many clean sheets for Man City this season as Claudio Bravo (6) despite playing nine games fewer (16 v 25). Cabellero also has a better minutes per goal conceded ratio (99 mins v 71 mins) and a better saves to shots ratio (70% v 58%).   

Posted at 1120 GMT on 07/03/17.