Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: Matchday 34 part 2
- Jake Osgathorpe is +63.1pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 3.0 Asian goals in Everton vs Liverpool at evens (bet365)
2pts Justin Kluivert to commit 2+ fouls in Wolves vs Bournemouth at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Over 3.5 Goals in C Palace vs Newcastle at 6/4 (General)
1pt Harry Maguire 2+ total shots in Man Utd vs Sheff Utd at 13/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Already advised:
1pt Arsenal to win and BTTS vs Chelsea at 7/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt Bukayo Saka to score anytime in Arsenal vs Chelsea at 17/10 (Unibet)
We had a slight loss last weekend but nothing too damaging (-0.7pts), mainly thanks to Crystal Palace's demolition job against West Ham saving us after a poor Saturday. But, we move on.
There are five Premier League games across Tuesday and Wednesday, and there looks to be plenty of value on offer as we head into the business end of the season, even in so-called 'dead-rubbers'.
Leicester vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 21/20 | Draw 14/5 | Away 9/4
A win for Leicester here all but secures promotion, while Southampton are still in with an outside shout of automatic promotion, meaning we should get a cracking game here.
The Foxes have won three home games on the spin all against teams with something to play for, and I see them adding a fourth here against a Saints side who have lost two of a winless last three away games. Russell Martin's side always defend on the edge, and were thoroughly exposed in the reverse game, meaning a similar outcome is likely.
Score prediction: Leicester 3-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Everton vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 11/2 | Draw 15/4 | Away 4/9
After back-to-back home wins Everton are breathing much more easily from a relegation perspective, and will be looking to play spoiler as their title chasing rivals Liverpool pay a visit to Goodison Park.
Recent head-to-heads have been far from goal-laden, with six of the last eight going under 2.5 goals and six of the last eight seeing BTTS 'no'. It usually becomes a case of whether Liverpool can break Everton down, with the Reds winning to nil in three of the last four outings without running up a huge score.
At the prices, I'm more than happy to back another low-scoring edition of the Merseyside derby, with even money available for UNDER 3.0 GOALS on the Asian goal line appealing greatly, with this selection giving our money back if there are exactly three goals and only losing if there are four or more.
Interestingly, while Liverpool have been incredibly high-scoring this season, their games away against the bottom four have all gone under 2.5. Everton have been the worst side in the league for goals this season, theirs seeing just 2.5 per game, so this one could be a lower scoring contest than the bookies believe.
Score prediction: Everton 0-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Manchester United vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- Home 2/7 | Draw 5/1 | Away 8/1
Wow, what club Manchester United are. They really are comical, continuing to out-do themselves. The 3-0 capitulation at the weekend against Coventry was just not acceptable for any Premier League club against a Championship side, never mind one of the stature of United - even if they did advance.
Hey-ho, that's Erik ten Hag's side for you. A home game against one of the worst top flight sides we have ever seen could present another opportunity for the Red Devils to do something funny. I did initially look at the shot lines, with Blades' 13+ piquing the interest at 29/20, but I didn't realise how bad they've been.
Chris Wilder's side have taken just 8.9 shots per away game against non-top-five sides, so that shot angle isn't worth taking. The Blades are two goals away from having conceded the most goals in Premier League history, which tells you all you need to know about their defence.
So, I'm actually going to take a pro-Manchester United bet here and back HARRY MAGUIRE 2+ SHOTS at a huge 13/5 - the same bet is 10/11 in places.
The former Blades centre-back remains a magnet when the ball is in the air, and has managed at least one shot in eight of his last nine matches, firing two or more in four of those matches. Across that period he's averaged 2.03 shots per 90, so the price seems huge here, especially against a side who struggle so much from set-pieces.
Score prediction: Manchester United 3-1 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 17/21)
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- Home 7/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 11/8
This game could be fun. Crystal Palace were involved in a seven goal thriller at the weekend, and I could easily see something similar in midweek with Newcastle in town. Palace now have a near-fully fit squad, with Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise fit and firing.
Those two could cause major issues for a Newcastle side who have been incredibly vulnerable defensively this season, especially on the road, but the Magpies, playing for European football, have firepower of their own.
All in all, I'm happy to wade in on OVER 3.5 GOALS at 8/5. Believe it or not, this bet has landed in seven of Palace's 16 home games and in 10 of Newcastle's 15 away games. So, combined home and away the pair have gone over 3.5 in 17 of 31 (55%), meaning the 6/4 on offer is simply too big.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 3-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)
Wolves vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
- Home 13/8 | Draw 13/5 | Away 29/20
On the face of it, this looks like a dead rubber. But, there is needle here for a couple of reasons. The obvious one is the Gary O'Neil shock sacking, with the Cherries moving on from him despite him keeping them in the division against all odds.
The second is that both sides are eyeing up a top half finish, and Bournemouth have been very open about their charge to register a best ever Premier League points tally, which they are five away from doing. That means there is plenty to play for.
One particular bet jumped off the page for this contest, and it's JUSTIN KLUIVERT TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at 11/10 - the same bet is 4/7 elsewhere.
Believe it or not, the Dutch forward is one of the most foul-heavy players in the entire division, ranking third for fouls per 90 this season (2.6). Across his last eight appearances this bet has landed five times, with his per 90 average in that span a whopping 2.8! More of the same on Wednesday please Justin.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Arsenal vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
- TV Channel: TNT Sport 1
- Home 1/2 | Draw 18/5 | Away 19/4
Arsenal bounced back well from their Champions League exit, beating Wolves 2-0 in another defensively dominant display (xG: WOL 0.17 - 1.18). They are top of the league heading into this clash, and Mikel Arteta's side should have the attacking capabilities to put Chelsea away at the Emirates.
The Blues played well against a leggy Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-final, and would have likely won if Nicolas Jackson could finish. However, Mauricio Pochettino's side have struggled greatly this season when playing away against the best sides, with their defence getting severely exposed.
They have lost four of six away at sides currently in the top eight, conceding 15 times. In total this term they have allowed a huge 1.93 xGA per game when travelling, so Arsenal should have more than enough to score two or even three here, especially given Chelsea need to win too to keep their European hopes alive, thus forcing them to be even more open.
I fully expect Arsenal to win, and the question then becomes, how will they do it? Will they concede or not? Well, Arsenal have conceded in 11 of their 16 home games this season, while Chelsea have been scoring for fun in the league - 19 in six - so ARSENAL TO WIN AND BTTS appeals at 7/4.
With Arsenal expected to be among the goals, I have to back BUKAYO SAKA TO SCORE ANYTIME here too at 17/10 - he's as short as 23/20 in places.
The Englishman has been in great form of late, scoring seven times in his last 10 Premier League games, averaging 0.69 xG per 90. He'll be up directly up against either Marc Cucurella, who's gets exposed regularly, or Ben Chilwell, who looks as though he can't control the ball at the minute. Saka can take advantage of his match-up, and I would also back whoever plays left-back for Chelsea to be carded when line-ups are announced.
- CLICK HERE to back Arsenal to win and BTTS with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Bukayo Saka to score anytime with Sky Bet
Score prediction: Arsenal 4-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 25/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 51
- Arsenal 4-2 Chelsea
- Leicester 3-1 Southampton
- Everton 0-2 Liverpool
- Man Utd 3-1 Sheff Utd
- C Palace 3-2 Newcastle
- Wolves 1-2 Bournemouth
Odds correct at 1630 BST (22/04/24)
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