Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: Matchday 32
- Jake Osgathorpe is +58.1pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Tottenham to win and BTTS vs N Forest at 8/5 (bet365, Boylesports)
0.75pts Alexis Mac Allister to score anytime in Man Utd vs Liverpool at 23/4 (Unibet)
0.75pts Alexis Mac Allister 1+ assist in Man Utd vs Liverpool at 11/2 (bet365)
Midweek started off promisingly with Alexander Isak netting for us, but it was a hard watch after that. I was excited about the chances of Arsenal winning from behind when Mikel Arteta fielded a rotated XI, but Luton didn't show up. Luis Diaz had three shots against Sheffield United but failed to score, so we go again ahead of a packed weekend.
I think everyone will be itching for this next round of fixtures after that sensational ending to a chaotic game at Stamford Bridge, as the goals continue to pour in at an unprecedented rate. It's been an excellent season for the neutral and there's plenty still to come.
Sheffield United vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Sunday
- Home 6/1 | Draw 17/4 | Away 4/11
Ten points from safety with eight games remaining, Sheffield United will be playing Championship football next season. Their defence has been horrendous, and they are only 10 goals away from having conceded the most in a single Premier League season.
Chelsea remain an enigma. Their midweek rollercoaster win against Manchester United epitomised their chaotic season, playing open football meaning chances at both ends are all but guaranteed. At least their attack is firing now, and they should score too many for the Blades to keep up in this game.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-4 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Tottenham vs Nottm Forest
- Kick-off time: 18:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 4/11 | Draw 17/4 | Away 6/1
We can back something at 8/5 in this game that has happened in 9 of 15 (60%) Spurs home matches this season - TOTTENHAM TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE.
Spurs' home record has been excellent, winning 11, but their overzealous attack combined with a shaky defence continues to see them concede good chances on a regular basis.
They have averaged 2.24 xGF per game while allowing 1.60 xGA per game when playing hosts, so given Nottingham Forest have scored in nine of Nuno's 11 league games in charge, scoring 15 times in total, it looks worthwhile chancing another Spurs win with both teams scoring.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Already advised:
2pts Under 3.0 Asian Goals in Brighton vs Arsenal at 17/20 (bet365)
1.5pts Eberechi Eze 1+ shot on target in C Palace vs Man City at 6/5 (Betway)
1pt Mathias Zanka Jorgensen 1+ total shot in Aston Villa vs Brentford at 7/4 (Betway)
1pt James Tarkowski to score anytime in Everton vs Burnley at 17/2 (Sky Bet, Unibet)
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 17/2 | Draw 17/4 | Away 3/10
Manchester City flexed their squad muscles in midweek when rotating and destroying Aston Villa. With a Champions League first leg in Madrid after this game, we may see more rotation and another controlled, not overly exerting performance from Pep's side.
That will likely be enough to get the win, but from a betting perspective my eyes have been drawn to the 6/5 best price available for EBERECHI EZE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET - with 11/10 on bet365 also value on a bet that is as short as 1/2.
Crystal Palace's talisman really is the heartbeat of the Eagles' attack, with his illusiveness, ball-carrying ability and shooting talent all again on show this season.
He's averaged 1.38 shots on target per 90 so far, a figure which rises to 1.57 when playing at home. He loves an attempt from distance and is on free-kick and penalty duty, meaning it's even more likely he tests City stopper Stefan Ortega.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Aston Villa vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/6 | Draw 16/5 | Away 18/5
Despite their lofty position in the table, Aston Villa aren't especially good at defending set-pieces. Unai Emery's side have conceded the third-highest xG from dead-ball situations in the league (13.4), while conceding the fourth most goals (14).
Brentford head to Villa Park as the second best side for creating chances from corners and free-kicks, poor finishing costing them more goals from such scenarios (14.4 xG and just 8 goals).
We can perhaps make some profit from this potential mismatch, and rather than get greedy with a big goalscorer price, the 7/4 about MATHIAS ZANKA JORGENSEN 1+ TOTAL SHOTS looks plenty big enough this weekend.
The big Dane has managed seven shots this season, but all seven have come in his last six league games, with this bet landing in five of those. He is a set-piece threat for sure, but has pulled the trigger from distance a couple of times, and that would be enough to see this bet land.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Everton vs Burnley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 11/4 | Away 17/10
I simply can't pass up this opportunity to wade in again on JAMES TARKOWSKI TO SCORE ANYTIME, this time at 17/2.
He so nearly landed us the bounty against Manchester United a few weeks ago and, up against the worst defensive team in the entire Premier League from set-pieces, he should get a couple of opportunities to add to his tally - against his former club no less.
Burnley have conceded the highest xG from dead-ball situations this season (14.1), while only Nottingham Forest have conceded more goals (19) than the Clarets (16) from such scenarios.
Tarkowski, playing for the best team in terms of creating chances from set-pieces (15.9 xG) has had 22 shots this season, including four in his last three outings, so this looks a good opportunity to get him on-side again in a crunch game at the foot of the table.
In the reverse fixture Everton racked up four shots equating to 0.89 xG from set-pieces, with centre-back Michael Keane scoring. Lets hope it's Tarky this time.
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Fulham vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 11/4 | Away 17/10
Fulham's midweek defeat at Nottingham Forest was in the headlines mainly for Marco Silva's decision to substitute three players after half-an-hour, something you don't see very often. It drew criticism, and rightly so, and it could have an adverse effect on the dressing room.
That, alongside the Cottagers' unpredictable performances of late, means it's tough to know what we are going to get from them here. And that is the same for Newcastle, who have won just three of their last eight league games. I could see this being an entertaining draw.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Wolves vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 5/2 | Away 17/10
If West Ham didn't have a huge Europa League game next Thursday, I would be very interested in backing them in some capacity here, simply because of Wolves' injury issues.
No Pedro Neto and Hwang Hee-chan is quite literally taking away over half of Wolves' goal threat, so despite West Ham conceding the second most xGA per game away from home this season (2.29), the Old Gold may find it tough to create without their most important attacking players.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Brighton vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 9/2 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/7
Arsenal have gone from being a laughing stock away from home to arguably the league's best travellers under Mikel Arteta. Their impressive record is built on a solid defence and they boast the best xGA per game average in the league when playing away - by some distance.
That means they can keep any team at bay, even Manchester City, so I fully expect an out of sorts, injury-hit Brighton to find it very difficult to create on Saturday.
The Seagulls are on a 14-game unbeaten run at the Amex across all competitions, last losing in September against AEK Athens, so this won't be a walkover for Arsenal, though the goals train has ground to a halt for Roberto De Zerbi's side.
In the last 11 matches at the Amex, under 2.5 goals has landed eight times. You can back that at 13/10, but I'm instead advising taking UNDER 3.0 ASIAN GOALS at 17/20, which means if there are exactly three goals scored in the game we get a push and our money back.
Two or fewer and it's a winner which gives us extra security, and looks a real runner on the south coast.
Score prediction: Brighton 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Manchester United vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 15:30 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 15/4 | Draw 18/5 | Away 4/7
ALEXIS MAC ALLISTER has been sensational for Liverpool of late. He has been playing further forward, seeing his attacking output increase, and we can profit from it in this game against one of the worst teams in the league - Manchester United.
If you want any more context on just how bad this current United team are defensively, look no further than Tom Carnduff's article on the subject.
Put simply, Liverpool should have their way with the side that knocked them out of the FA Cup in a game the Reds were in total control of before Jurgen Klopp subbed key players due to the fixture pile-up.
Mac Allister is the way to benefit. As mentioned, he's been playing higher up the pitch in his last six league outings and this has resulted in him getting among the goals and the assists. He's averaged 0.33 xG and 0.36 xA per 90 in that time - incredibly high numbers for a central midfielder, with those figures highlighting the added attacking responsibility he has undertaken with his forward move.
He's scored three times and assisted a further four goals in this six game stretch - in the 19 games he's previously played in the top flight this season he'd managed just one goal and one assist. So, backing him TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals at 23/4, as does TO REGISTER 1+ ASSIST at 11/2.
Backing both of these bets as singles makes sense not only from a value perspective, but also gives us the chance of landing both on Sunday. Mac Allister is only 13/8 in the 'to score or assist' market, so dutching the 23/4 and 11/2 gives us roughly a 23/10 shot on the same bet.
One of these bets has landed in all of the Argentine's last six league outings. Let's hope he can make it seven.
- CLICK HERE to back Alexis Mac Allister to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Alexis Mac Allister 1+ assist with Sky Bet
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Super 6 predictions for round 48
- Fulham 2-2 Newcastle
- Aston Villa 2-1 Brentford
- Wolves 1-1 West Ham
- Brighton 0-2 Arsenal
- Man Utd 1-3 Liverpool
- Sheff Utd 1-4 Chelsea
Odds correct at 1530 BST (05/04/24)
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