Premier League football predictor and correct score tips: Manchester United to be held, wins for Arsenal and Spurs

• Follow @JAKEOZZ on Twitter

Scroll to bottom for this week's Premier League TV schedule in full

• CLICK HERE for Infogol's 2022/23 Premier League xG table

Correct Score: Aston Villa 2-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

• Sunday, 14:00

Aston Villa and West Ham are both in a funk as they meet on Sunday.

Steven Gerrard's side have looked incredibly vulnerable over their past few games, shipping 2.01 and 2.93 xGA to Everton and Crystal Palace respectively.

The only bright spot to their season so far has come in their home win over the Toffees, where they played out an end-to-end contest and created 2.37 xGF.

West Ham are pointless and goalless across their opening three matches, with their best display of the season coming in their sole away game at Nottingham Forest (xG: FOR 2.19 - 2.65 WHU).

David Moyes' side are struggling badly in defence for some time, shipping an average of 1.84 xGA per game across their last 10 league matches.

With two defensively vulnerable teams going head-to-head, we should get goals on Sunday from both sides.

Correct Score: Wolves 1-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

• Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00

Wolves are yet to get going this season, but there were flashes of promise in their defeat to Spurs, though they really need to stop attempting low-probability efforts.

They amassed just 0.83 xGF in that game from 20 attempts - an average of 0.04 xG per shot, which tells us that each shot the took had around a 4% chance of being scored.

In total this term they have racked up 3.09 xGF from 42 shots, an average of 0.07 xG per shot. That is something that desperately needs improving upon.

Defensively, Bruno Lage's side haven't been all that bad, allowing an average of just 1.18 non-pen xGA per game, so if they can sort their creation issue they will be fine.

Now, a hosting of a team who just put three past Manchester City wouldn't initially appear as a great opportunity to get a first win of the season, but that's how I view this match for Wolves.

Newcastle played with reckless abandon against City, which was exceptional to watch for the neutral, but Eddie Howe's side were fortunate to get a result based on chances created (xG: NEW 2.30 - 3.77 MCI).

By re-simulating the game thousands of times, according to the quality of chances created by both sides, Infogol calculates that City would win the game 65% of the time.

This is calmer waters for Howe's men, but results away from home have flattered them. In his 14 road trips in charge Newcastle have averaged 1.00 xGF and 1.94 xGA per game.

Unless those levels improve, it's hard to see them getting another positive result here, with Wolves' defence looking solid after a struggle period and Newcastle's road defensive displays not instilling confidence in the Magpies.

Correct Score: Nottingham Forest 1-3 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

• Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30

Nottingham Forest have four points on the board through three games, but have been very fortunate to do so based on xG.

They have collected the third fewest xP heading into gameweek four, losing the xG battle in all three matches, averaging 1.15 xGF and 2.06 xGA per game - which is a relegation-worthy process.

Something has to change or they will be well-beaten by a Tottenham side who have started the campaign well.

Spurs have won the xG battle in both home games, while narrowly losing it in their draw with Chelsea (xG: CHE 1.71-1.58 TOT), though I don't expect them to be as gettable in this match as they were in that one.

Antonio Conte has improved them remarkably at home, but away from home he has had a similar impact, with Spurs losing just three of 15 road games under his tutelage.

They have won seven of those contests, with their away xG process over that period reading 1.79 xGF and 1.35 xGA per game.

If they hit those same levels here, we can expect a Spurs win.

Correct Score: Southampton 1-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

• BT Sport: Saturday, 12:30

Manchester United were impressive on Monday against Liverpool, winning their first game of the season and looking fluid in doing so.

However, it may be more difficult than many expect to back that performance and result up this weekend.

Against Liverpool, United started with energy that the Reds couldn't match - that won't be the case at Southampton - while Liverpool pinned United back which afforded space for Erik ten Hag's side on the counter attack, though this game could take a similar pattern to what we saw at Brentford.

We can expect Saints to play in the same manner as the Bees, counter attacking in a direct manner, which could again cause issues for the Red Devils.

Southampton have started the season well too, losing at Tottenham as to be expected, but their comeback at home to Leeds and win at Leicester were both impressive.

Add in the fact that United have lost seven straight away games in the Premier League, and we could see a step back after two steps forward earlier in the week.

Correct Score: Brentford 2-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

• Saturday, 15:00

Brentford came back from two goals down against Fulham before conceding late to lose 3-2, a deserved loss based on the quality of chances created in the game (xG: FUL 2.83 - 1.66 BRE).

The Bees return home this weekend, and Thomas Frank's side have been excellent in front of their own fans since promotion to the top flight.

Last season they ranked as the seventh best home side in the division, averaging 1.64 xGF and 1.07 xGA per game, and hammered Manchester United 4-0 in their only home game of the season so far.

They welcome a winless Everton side to London, with Frank Lampard's side struggling, especially defensively.

The Toffees have allowed 1.79 xGA per game across their opening trio of matches, and have a miserable away record under Lampard.

Everton collected just four points from a possible 27 on the road after the appointment of the ex-Chelsea coach.

From an underlying number perspective, in that time only relegated Watford and Norwich accumulated fewer xP per away game than Everton (0.76), while only Southampton and Norwich allowed more xGA per away game than the Toffees (2.35).

Home win.

Correct Score: Brighton 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

• Saturday, 15:00

Both Brighton and Leeds have made excellent starts to the new campaign, winning two of an unbeaten three games.

The Seagulls were impressive yet again when beating West Ham last weekend (xG: WHU 0.95 - 1.79 BHA), and continue to go from strength to strength under Graham Potter.

However, the main issue they have had since his appointment has been converting good performances to good results when playing at the Amex.

Across their last 39 home games, Brighton have created chances equating to 65.7 xGF - an average of 1.68 per game - but have scored only 41 times, an underperformance of nearly 25 goals (24.7).

Based on calculations, there was just a 0.03% chance that Potter's side would score 41 from the chances they created, with them having a greater probability of scoring exactly 90 times (0.1%).

This highlights their misfortune, though the size of this sample suggests there could be something bigger at play here, which makes me hesitate in siding with them against a Leeds team who have impressed away from home under Jesse Marsch.

Across seven away league games under the American, Leeds have won three and drawn two, averaging an impressive 1.57 xGF and 1.32 xGA per game, so will provide a stiff test to Brighton on Saturday.

Correct Score: Chelsea 3-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

• Saturday, 15:00

Something is wrong at Leicester. I have been banging the 'Leicester are in trouble' drum since midway through last season, with their defensive process utterly shocking.

Their process has remained awful this term, and while they have welcomed back players from injury, there is unrest as stars are wanting out and the Foxes are yet to bring anyone of note in.

So far this season, Brendan Rodgers' side have conceded eight times in a winless three games, with their averages of 0.53 xGF and 1.89 xGA per game highlighting that those results have been deserved.

Unless they change something, and quickly, my pre-season prediction of Leicester to finish in the bottom half could be viewed as a little too optimistic, with Rodgers mob having performed like a relegation candidate for a season and a bit.

Chelsea will be desperate for a bounce back result after getting smacked 3-0 at Leeds, a surprisingly bad away day for one of the league's better travelling teams (xG: LEE 2.13 - 0.72 CHE).

The Blues haven't exactly made Stamford Bridge a fortress over the last few seasons, but they have shown more than enough to suggest they can beat a Leicester team in disarray handily.

Correct Score: Liverpool 3-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

• Saturday, 15:00

I don't think anyone saw Liverpool's slow start coming, but they are winless through three games after three abject performances, especially defensively.

The Reds are usually extremely reliable at the back, but have shipped an average of 1.51 xGA per game this season following a 2-1 loss at Manchester United.

Jurgen Klopp's side are still creating plenty (2.13 xGF per game), but they aren't playing with the same zip we have seen over the past few years.

Welcoming Bournemouth should be the opportune time to get a first win of the season, with Manchester City (4-0) and Arsenal (3-0) both dismissing the Cherries with ease over the last few weeks.

Scott Parker's side have so far been the worst attacking team in the league this season, racking up a total of 1.02 xGF across three games - that's 0.34 per game.

If there was ever a 'get-right' game for Liverpool, it is this one, and the hosts are fancied to get themselves on the winning trail.

Correct Score: Manchester City 2-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

• Saturday, 15:00

Hands up, who thought Manchester City would concede three at Newcastle at the weekend?

No one? Just as I thought. That defensive display (2.30 xGA) definitely came out of nowhere from a team who had allowed 0.58 xGA and 0.17 xGA across their opening two games, and a side who averaged just 0.72 xGA over the entire 21/22 season.

It was City's worst defensive display based on xG since Boxing Day last year, some 21 games ago, and while it may not be repeated at the Etihad on Saturday, I do feel as though Crystal Palace can cause City similar problems.

The Eagles are a progressive, front-foot team under Patrick Vieira who won't hide from a challenge, as shown when holding Liverpool at Anfield.

They will look to play on the counter here, but they are much more than just a one-trick pony, and Palace have had City's number over the last few years.

Vieira oversaw a win in this fixture last term as well as a goalless draw at Selhurst, while over their last four meetings at the Etihad Palace have more wins (2) than City (1).

I'm not going out on a limb here to suggest the visitors will get a result here, but I think they will play their hosts incredibly close.

Correct Score: Arsenal 3-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

• Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30

This one will be short. Arsenal at the Emirates versus any team outside of the big six equals a home win.

The Gunners have started the season in excellent fashion, deservedly winning all three contests, and they should make it four from four this weekend if they maintain their excellent home underlying process.

Across their last 20 home league games Mikel Arteta's side have averaged 2.27 xGF and 1.02 xGA per game, which is simply excellent.

Fulham have been very good on their return to the top flight, unbeaten having collected five points, with first win at home to Brentford fully deserved (xG: FUL 2.83 - 1.66 BRE).

This is a big step up though, having to travel to an Arsenal side who are purring, and it should spell the end of their unbeaten start, though they will likely score.

This week's Premier League kick-off times (BST) and TV schedule

Saturday 27th August

• Southampton v Manchester United - 12:30 on BT Sport
• Brentford v Everton - 15:00
• Brighton v Leeds - 15:00
• Chelsea v Leicester - 15:00
• Liverpool v Bournemouth - 15:00
• Manchester City v Crystal Palace - 15:00
• Arsenal v Fulham - 17:30 on Sky Sports

Sunday 28th August

• Aston Villa v West Ham - 14:00
• Wolves v Newcastle - 14:00 on Sky Sports
• Nottingham Forest v Tottenham - 16:30 on Sky Sports

More from Sporting Life

• Fixtures, results and live scores
• Expert xG analysis and features
• Transfer news and done deals
• Football and other sports tips
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.