Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Enzo Fernandez to be shown a card at 16/5 (General)
Back our suggested BuildABet @ 7/1
Erling Haaland to commit 1+ fouls
Nathan Ake to win 1+ fouls
Christopher Nkunku to commit 1+ fouls
Cole Palmer to commit 1+ fouls
Chelsea's 4-4 draw with Manchester City was one of, if not the, games of the Premier League season - a repeat of that would be most welcome in Saturday's late kick-off.
It's once again advantage City in the title race as victory in their game in-hand over Liverpool moves them top. That's as it stands though, and the clichéd 'plenty of football still to be played' applies here - particularly with three teams having a realistic chance of success.
Mauricio Pochettino will be frustrated that performances haven't matched the results. Wasteful at both ends undermining what is a solid system, and one that can eventually be a part of that talk at the top if he's given enough time.
They've gained points off Arsenal, City and Liverpool in games at Stamford Bridge, while winning 4-1 away at Tottenham in a bizarre, red card-affected contest in November.
There's no doubt they're underachieving, but there is long term potential if they were willing to be patient about it.
City's 3/10 price for success is understandable, but they've dropped points against Liverpool and Spurs in home contests this season - while Crystal Palace also gained a 2-2 draw.
There is little appeal in that outright market, as ever, we're looking elsewhere for multiple selections.
Value in the cards market
As is usually the case, the player card markets wildly vary depending on which bookmaker you look at.
I was surprised to see a best price of 16/5 available with a few on ENZO FERNANDEZ TO BE SHOWN A CARD when we consider his season so far and the match-up.
I'd consider 5/2 about this bet strong value too, with around 2/1 the lowest I'd go on it. The midfielder has been shown seven yellows in 30 games across all competitions in 23/24.
As Alex Keble has pointed out in his match-ups, the midfield area will be significant in deciding the outcome of this contest. Conor Gallagher has been highlighted by him but it's Fernandez who does represent the better value here.
Only Gallagher and Moises Caicedo average more fouls per league game, while his number jumps up from 1.2 overall to 1.4 in away contests.
Staying with fouls...
Our recommended multiple has a complete focus on fouls, with two players backed in two markets from both teams.
Let's start with the City side of things, where ERLING HAALAND TO COMMIT 1+ FOULS feels a strong play based on showings in home contests.
The prolific striker is normally a player to target in the goalscorer market, obviously, yet he's averaged 0.8 fouls per home league game this season.
It's been a winning pick in six of eight Premier League starts at the Etihad, which includes those games against Liverpool and Tottenham.
He also committed two fouls in the draw when these two sides met in November.
Staying with City, and the next player up is NATHAN AKE, although we're backing him to WIN 1+ FOULS.
Ake has been involved anyway, but Josko Gvardiol's injury enhances his chances of involvement. There's every chance he's carrying the ball through the middle of the pitch with the aim of creating attacks.
He's been fouled five times across their last four home league games, with this being a winner in three of those. Across the season, the winning rate is five in seven.
Flipping over to the Chelsea side, where CHRISTOPHER NKUNKU TO COMMIT 1+ FOULS is an option that stands out.
He should start here having had injury issues since signing in the summer. In six league outings, Nkunku had committed 2+ fouls in three of those.
One of those games was the away defeat at Liverpool, and we often saw him contributing in this area during his time at Leipzig.
Finally, ex-City man COLE PALMER is fancied for 1+ FOULS to complete the recommended fourfold.
With Nkunku in the centre forward role, Palmer should line up in one of the roles just behind. When featuring as the most advanced central midfielder or out wide, Palmer has committed at least a foul in seven of eight away Premier League starts.
Team news
Pep Guardiola will be without defender Gvardiol for a few weeks, while Jack Grealish is unlikely to feature after being injured in the Champions League win over Copenhagen.
Bernardo Silva, who scored in that contest, will be assessed on Friday to see if he's fit enough for involvement.
Kevin De Bruyne is likely to be given a starting role after coming off the bench in their last Premier League outing.
Chelsea's injury list remains lengthy with a number of what would be first team players still unavailable for selection.
Benoît Badiashile, Marc Cucurella, Wesley Fofana, Reece James, Romeo Lavia, Robert Sanchez, Thiago Silva and Lesley Ugochukwu will definitely be missing.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester City XI: Ederson; Walker, Stones, Dias, Ake; Rodri, De Bruyne; Foden, Alvarez, Doku; Haaland.
Chelsea XI: Petrovic; Gusto, Disasi, Colwill, Chilwell; Caicedo, Gallagher; Palmer, Fernandez, Sterling; Nkunku.
Match facts
- Manchester City and Chelsea played out a 4-4 draw in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge – the most goals scored between these sides in a single Premier League campaign is nine in 2009-10, with the Citizens winning 2-1 (h) and 4-2 (a) that season.
- The 4-4 draw between Man City and Chelsea in the reverse fixture ended a run of 16 Premier League games without a draw between the sides. The last time both meetings ended level in a season was in 2014-15.
- Manchester City have won their last six Premier League matches, having only won one of their previous six games (D4 L1). Four of those wins have come in 2024 – the only time they’ve won their first five Premier League games in a calendar year was in 2021 (won first 13 games).
- Manchester City haven’t lost any of their last 22 home Premier League matches (W18 D4), with only Liverpool on a longer unbeaten run at home (24). City are also on the longest scoring run on home soil in the competition, scoring in their last 44 games at the Etihad and netting 135 goals in these games.
- Should Chelsea score two goals in this game, it would be the first time a side managed by Pep Guardiola has conceded six league goals in a season against a single opponent; the previous most is currently five goals (eight different instances).
- Both Raheem Sterling and Cole Palmer scored for Chelsea against former club Manchester City in the reverse fixture in November – no player to have previously played for the Citizens in the Premier League has scored home and away against them in the same campaign in the competition before.
- Chelsea boss Mauricio Pochettino has lost more matches against Pep Guardiola (13) than he has against any other manager in all competitions. His four wins against him have been with three different clubs (Espanyol, Spurs x2 and PSG); the only manager to beat Guardiola with four different clubs is Jose Mourinho (Inter Milan, Real Madrid, Man Utd and Spurs).
- Kevin De Bruyne has assisted a goal in all four of Manchester City’s league games in 2024, despite only starting two of them. The Belgian could become the 11th different player to assist a goal in 5+ successive Premier League appearances and the first to do so for the Citizens. De Bruyne also has 66 Premier League assists at the Etihad Stadium; only Ryan Giggs (84 at Old Trafford) has more at a single venue in the competition.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (16/02/24)
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