Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Álex Moreno 1+ assists at 7/1 (bet365)
Back our suggested BuildABet @ 12/1
Álex Moreno to win 2+ fouls
Bruno Fernandes 2+ tackles
Douglas Luiz 2+ tackles
Douglas Luiz to commit 1+ fouls
A meeting between Aston Villa and Manchester United sees one team looking to play Champions League football next season and another at risk of no involvement in Europe whatsoever.
Typically though, it's been the other way around, yet Unai Emery's Villa side remain in the top four despite a recent dip in form.
They've won nine of the 11 league games in front of their own supporters, with Arsenal and Liverpool gaining just one point more in home games. Villa Park has been a big reason behind their current position.
The visitors are no longer the feared opposition they once were - five defeats in 11 away outings, with those coming against those towards the top, give further hope to a home win.
Go, Moreno!
I've had ALEX MORENO on my radar since signing for Aston Villa a year ago, yet injuries have prevented him from enjoying a real run in the team.
He suits this Villa style, particularly the rest of the back line featuring three other centre-backs. It allows him to drive forward while others stay back to cover.
And that has led to attacking output. He scored in the win over Sheffield United and has created seven chances across his last five Premier League games - including two at Old Trafford.
You can get a best price of 7/1 on MORENO 1+ ASSISTS, which is particularly appealing.
Featuring in 19 games last season, of which 14 were starts, the full-back averaged 1.2 chances created per game after joining Villa. It led to him returning three assists in that period.
From those games, nine were at Villa Park, with the average shifting up to 1.4 chances created and two of the assists.
Sticking with the Villa left-back now, and the first selection for the Sunday multiple is related to his attacking output.
MORENO TO WIN 2+ FOULS is a good option to look at considering how advanced he is likely to be when Villa have possession.
This has been a winner in four of Moreno's last five Premier League start, with the one game that fell short seeing the single foul in the home defeat to Newcastle.
He was also fouled once in the FA Cup defeat to Chelsea in midweek.
Focus on Fernandes
On the Manchester United side of things, BRUNO FERNANDES is always a name worth focusing on.
Rather than looking at things to happen when he has the ball, it's out of possession where some value can be found for a multiple.
Taking FERNANDES 2+ TACKLES is worth backing when we consider his returns this season.
The midfielder has had at least one tackle in 20 of his 22 Premier League games this season, with 2+ coming in 12 of those.
Look at Luiz
Staying with the 2+ TACKLES market, and DOUGLAS LUIZ is a name to add to a multiple.
He commits more tackles in home games than he does away, with his central midfield position a big reason as to why he's a leader in this metric among Villa players.
Backing Luiz to have a couple of tackles would have won in seven of his 11 Premier League outings at Villa Park this season.
Staying with the midfielder, and LUIZ TO COMMIT 1+ FOULS rounds off a strong looking 12/1 multiple.
Again, focusing on games at Villa Park, he's returned at least a foul in ten of those 11.
Team news
Emery remains without a few of his long-term absentees for Sunday's visit of United.
Emiliano Buendía and Tyrone Mings are still sidelined, while Ezri Konsa and Tyrone Mings will also miss out. Lucas Digne could be in contention but may have to settle for a spot on the bench.
Erik ten Hag is still without Tyrell Malacia, Anthony Martial, Lisandro Martinez and Aaron Wan-Bissaka. Mason Mount is another who is unlikely to feature as he continues to recover from injury.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa XI: Martinez; Cash, Carlos, Lenglet, Moreno; Luiz, Kamara; Bailey, McGinn, Diaby; Watkins.
Manchester United XI: Onana; Dalot, Varane, Maguire, Shaw; Mainoo, Casemiro; Garnacho, Fernandes, Rashford, Hojlund.
Match facts
- Since winning 15 home Premier League games in a row between March and December 2023, Aston Villa have won one of their last three (D1 L1), only conceding one fewer goal in the last three games (6) than they did across their entire 15 game winning run (7).
- Over their last five Premier League matches, Manchester United have scored 13 goals, converting exactly 20% of their shots in that time (65 attempts). In their five games beforehand, they only scored two goals with a conversion rate of 3% (73 attempts).
- Aston Villa’s 5-0 win over Sheffield United was their third Premier League win of the season by four or more goals (also 4-0 vs Everton & 6-1 vs Brighton), as many wins by 4+ goals as they had in their previous three seasons combined. It’s the first time they’ve had this many victories by that margin in a Premier League season since 2007-08, when they did so four times.
- Only three teams have faced more shots in the Premier League this season than Manchester United (355), whose average of 15.4 shots faced per game is their most in a season on record (2003-04 onwards). Aston Villa, meanwhile, are averaging 14.6 shots per game (335 in 23 games), their most in a Premier League season on record.
- Aston Villa boss Unai Emery has won both of his Premier League home games against Manchester United (2-0 with Arsenal in March 2019, 3-1 with Aston Villa last season). He could become the first manager to win his first three at home against the Red Devils in the competition.
- Rasmus Højlund has found the net in each of his last four Premier League appearances for Man Utd, after failing to score in any of his first 14 games in the competition. He’s the youngest player to score in four in a row for the Red Devils and the only Danish player for any team to have achieved that feat in the Premier League.
- Ollie Watkins has been directly involved in 38 goals in 47 Premier League appearances for Aston Villa under Unai Emery (24 goals, 14 assists), averaging a goal or assist every 107 minutes. Of Villa players to play at least 1,000 minutes under a manager in the Premier League, only Christian Benteke under Tim Sherwood (goal/assist every 96 mins) has a better average.
Odds correct 1045 GMT (09/02/24)
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