Premier League cheat sheet: Arsenal vs Aston Villa tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Ben White 1+ assists at 6/1 (Betway)
0.5pt Ben White & Oleksandr Zinchenko 1+ assists each at 50/1 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 13/2
Aston Villa 4+ corners
Youri Tielemans to commit 1+ fouls
Diego Carlos to commit 1+ fouls
Martin Odegaard 3+ total shots
Arsenal's home draw with Bayern Munich in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final encounter perhaps gives Mikel Arteta a slight selection headache here.
They sit top of the Premier League table and want to fight on both fronts. But even with that tricky contest in Germany just days later, we can expect to see the usual Gunners line-up.
Three genuine contenders for the titles means that slip-ups could be costly. After coming so close but ultimately finishing empty-handed in 22/23, they will want to ensure there are no repeats this time around.
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Aston Villa have Champions League aspirations for next season but mixed form has led them trailing in the battle for the top four. There is also real potential the England co-efficient doesn't land an extra spot.
At a price of 1/4, and with the Asian Handicap sat at -1.5 in their favour, anything less than a home win will be viewed as a big disappointment for the Emirates crowd.
Threats from out wide
But with the hosts such a short price for success, we have to look elsewhere to find some value, and I was surprised by some of the prices in this area considering the vulnerability we've seen from Villa out wide in recent weeks.
Brentford left-back Sergio Reguilon grabbed two assists in the 3-3 draw at Villa Park last time out, while Luton's Alfie Doughty claimed one in a recent 3-2 defeat.
BEN WHITE, therefore, may become a key figure in the Arsenal attack. It's 6/1 that he sees 1+ ASSISTS here.
The Gunners' right-back has five assists in all competitions this season, with one coming in the recent home draw with Bayern Munich in the Champions League.
A deeper look at Villa's recent games and the numbers behind it highlight why he should create chances.
Goals have been coming from their right side, but they've also shipped chances down the left. Jeremy Doku and Rico Lewis combined for seven key passes from Manchester City's right side, while Wolves' Pablo Sarabia and Nelson Semedo had six.
Pablo Fornals and Jarrod Bowen saw four for West Ham - Tottenham's Pedro Porro and Dejan Kulusevski returned four. These have all been in Villa's most recent five league outings.
At 50/1, we'll also pair WHITE with OLEKSANDR ZINCHENKO to each record 1+ ASSISTS in the game.
Availability issues for the visitors could see Arsenal find the net on a few occasions.
Count the corners
I'm intrigued by the way this game could play out and the potential of ASTON VILLA 4+ CORNERS to come in.
Only three sides have scored more goals from counter attacks in away games this season than Villa, while it's just three more teams who have conceded from the same situations in home games than Arsenal.
Set-piece taking is a strength of Villa's too, and while the Gunners have shown they are strong at defending them, the away side will feel that this could still be a route to success.
Four is a low enough line to gain some interest.
Foul play...
Douglas Luiz's suspension means that YOURI TIELEMANS should start in midfield. It's worth adding him TO COMMIT 1+ FOULS to a multiple.
Tielemans has committed at least one foul in each of his last five Premier League outings, with a huge total of four coming in the away draw with West Ham last month.
He's also been booked in two of his last three starts. It helps that he's featuring in a deeper role with Boubacar Kamara unavailable too.
Go for Diego
It's unclear if Clement Lenglet will be available to feature, so DIEGO CARLOS should continue in the Aston Villa defence.
He's COMMITTED 1+ FOULS in nine of his last 12 Premier League appearances and we're backing him to do the same here.
Obviously, we'd expect this to come in Villa's own half, but there is the potential for one to be made when featuring in an attacking set-piece situation.
Take a shot (or three)
In home games this season, only Liverpool (24.8) have averaged a higher number of shots than Arsenal (17.6)
Second to Bukayo Saka (3.3) in this area is MARTIN ODEGAARD, and we're siding with the Gunners' captain for 3+ TOTAL SHOTS on Sunday.
Expected rotation for Villa means that the home side may well go above the average total. Odegaard has returned at least three shots in three of his last five league appearances.
In 13 home appearances in the Premier League, Odegaard's hit at least three efforts eight times.
Team news
Arsenal have a near-full squad to choose from, with Jurrien Timber the only long-term absentee still not available.
Even with that game against Bayern to come on Wednesday, Arteta is likely to field the strongest possible side given their position in the title race.
Aston Villa have issues to contend with with seven players expected to be missing for Sunday's contest.
Emi Buendia, Matty Cash, Kamara, Tyrone Mings and Jacob Ramsey are all definitely out with injury, with Luiz is suspended. Lenglet may also not recover in time.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal XI: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Jorginho, Rice, Odegaard; Saka, Havertz, Martinelli.
Aston Villa XI: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Torres, Digne; Tielemans, McGinn; Bailey, Zaniolo, Diaby; Watkins.
Match facts
- Following their 1-0 win against them at Villa Park in December, Aston Villa are looking to complete just their third Premier League double over Arsenal, previously doing so in 1992-93 and 2020-21.
- Arsenal have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League games (D1), scoring at least twice in each victory. The Gunners have conceded just four goals across these 11 games, though three of those have been at the Emirates Stadium.
- Aston Villa lost 4-1 at Manchester City in their last Premier League away game, but haven’t lost consecutively on the road since May 2023. However, they’ve lost each of their three away games against last season’s top four so far by an aggregate score of 12-4.
- Aston Villa have caught their opponents offside 142 times in the Premier League this season, more than 40 more than any other side. Meanwhile, only Man City (33) have been flagged offside themselves less often than the Villans (38).
- Arsenal’s Kai Havertz has been involved in nine goals in his last seven Premier League appearances (5 goals, 4 assists), while overall this is his most productive Premier League campaign for both goals (9) and assists (5).
- Bukayo Saka has been involved in 11 goals in his last 11 Premier League appearances, scoring nine and assisting two. One more goal would see him become the first English player to score 15 in a league campaign for Arsenal since Ian Wright in 1996-97 (23).
- Ollie Watkins has been involved in 11 goals in his last 10 Premier League games (9 goals, 2 assists), and seven in his last four away from home (5 goals, 2 assists). His 18 goals overall this season is the second most by an Aston Villa player in a single Premier League campaign, after Christian Benteke (19 in 2012-13).
- Leandro Trossard has eight Premier League goals this season, his joint-most in a single campaign. Four of these have been as a substitute, with only Olivier Giroud ever netting more from the bench for Arsenal in a season (6 in 2016-17).
Odds correct at 1400 BST (12/04/24)
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