Brentford v Arsenal tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Jake Pearson previews the opening match of the Premier League season between Brentford and Arsenal, providing a best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Brentford v Arsenal
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 21/20 (MansionBet)
Brentford may have won promotion to the Premier League the hard way last season, beating Swansea in the play-off final, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that they are actually the strongest of the three newly-promoted teams.
Last term was the culmination of what has been a long-term project for the West London club, a project built on solid foundations such as shrewd recruitment, both in terms of players and managers; Thomas Frank proving the perfect fit for the Bees.
Brentford have been quietly preparing for life in the Premier League for some time now, and this will stand them in good stead now they have finally reached the promised land.
Initially, the impression of Brentford is that of a free-flowing, attack-minded outfit, and while that is certainly true to an extent – they scored the most goals in the Sky Bet Championship last season – they are a much more balanced side than most give them credit for.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Brentford 16/5 | Draw 13/5 | Arsenal 5/6
Frank’s men conceded the fourth-fewest goals in the league last term, but they actually allowed fewer chances than any other side in the division, limiting opponents to just 0.90 expected goals per game.
It seems unlikely that Brentford will come into this season simply trying to outscore opponents, as many newly-promoted teams do. Each game will be meticulously planned, and with a solid start necessary, they may try and stifle Arsenal in this opening fixture.
Arteta's Arsenal rebuild a slow one
Similarly, but in a very different way, Arsenal are also in the midst of a long-term project, with Mikel Arteta appearing to have the full support of the board as he attempts to build a new-look Gunners.
Last season was not the campaign that most people at Arsenal were hoping for, but Arteta’s men ended the term in incredibly strong form, winning their last five league matches in succession and mounting a charge up the table that saw them eventually finish eighth, just one point off a place in the Europa Conference League and just six points behind fourth-placed Chelsea.
In terms of attack, Arteta was forced to turn to youth on more than one occasion last season, but that turned out to be a blessing in disguise, with Bakuyo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe in particular stepping up to the plate and shouldering responsibility.
Long has been the narrative that Arsenal’s attacking prowess has been negated by their poor performances at the back, but last season it was almost the opposite.
Only Manchester City and Chelsea conceded fewer goals than Arsenal in the Premier League last season, and with new-signing Ben White adding further strength to their back-line, Arteta does look to have a solid foundation from which to build.
The first game of the season is always a tricky one to evaluate, and even more so when a newly-promoted team is involved.
Cases can be made for backing Arsenal, as well as taking on Arsenal, but with little crossover data available with regards to the comparative strengths of each team, the 1X2 market is probably best avoided.
Something that does immediately stand out however, is the odds-against price about this game seeing UNDER 2.5 GOALS.
54% of Brentford’s matches last season saw fewer than three goals – 57% at home – while the most common scorelines at the Brentford Community Stadium last term were 1-1 (17%) and 0-0 (17%).
In terms of Arsenal, only five teams in the Premier League last term boasted a lower average match goal total (team goals + opponent goals) than the Gunners last season, while only four sides kept more clean sheets than the Gunners; only Manchester City and Everton recorded more shutouts away from home.
How these two teams fare this season will be largely down to how they defend, so a low scoring affair should be backed in their opening fixture.
Brentford v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- Under 2.5 Goals at 21/20 (Mansion Bet, 10Bet)
Score prediction: Brentford 0-0 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1410 BST (11/08/21)
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