Premier League free betting tips: Leicester v Man Utd; Arsenal v Chelsea | Boxing Day best bets and preview

Football betting tips: Boxing Day Premier League

1pt Ilkay Gundogan to score anytime in Manchester City v Newcastle at 15/4

1pt Everton to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 v Sheffield United at 15/8

1pt Timo Werner to have 1+ assists in Arsenal v Chelsea at 4/1

0.5pts Timo Werner to have 2+ assists in Arsenal v Chelsea at 40/1

1pt Crystal Palace/Draw on double chance v Aston Villa at 20/21

0.5pts Jannik Vestergaard to score first in Fulham v Southampton at 28/1

1pt Jannik Vestergaard to score anytime in Fulham v Southampton at 12/1

1pt A penalty taken in Leicester v Manchester United at 6/4

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Manchester City v Newcastle betting tips

• 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 1
• Match odds: Home 1/11 | Draw 9/1 | Away 22/1

Manchester City may have been held by a heroic defensive display from West Brom in their last home game, but if Tuesday's 4-1 Carabao Cup hammering of Arsenal is anything to go by then they should return to the familiar territory of sweeping aside lower-half Premier League teams by a comfortable margin when they visit the Etihad.

City are 1/11 to beat Newcastle, with -2 on the handicap still providing an odds-on price in many places. Their midweek win made it nine games unbeaten in all competitions and we can expect that to become 10 on Boxing Day. Newcastle failed to inspire in their three-game run against the newly-promoted sides, one that included a 5-2 hammering at Leeds.

It is another game where six City players can be found at an odds-on price to score anytime. It's justified considering their record in the Pep Guardiola era and the fact they beat Steve Bruce's men 5-0 when the sides last met here in July. We can expect a similar outcome this time around.

With plenty of goals for the hosts expected, and a lot of City's usual suspects a very short price to score, the best value comes in backing Ilkay Gundogan to continue his decent goalscoring start to the campaign - he has three in all competitions.

The German may occupy a deeper position in midfield but does contribute in attack, particularly in one-sided games such as this one. Recent seasons have shown how he can strike when games become so heavily dominated by City and he did score in the surprise 1-1 draw with West Brom - a match in which he registered four total shots, two on target.

Gundogan has had at least one shot in each of his last four outings and shopping around brings up a 15/4 price on a goal anytime - that is just a tad too big if it turns out to be the game that most are expecting.

Obviously, there is no value in taking City at 1/11. It's one of those games where it is so heavily favoured one way that the outright market is to be avoided. However, if we were to pick an 'acca selection', there is 21/20 available with some bookmakers on City -2.

Instead though, taking a punt on a big-price scorer provides more appeal and Gundogan can get himself on the scoresheet.

Score prediction: Manchester City 4-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Manchester City v Newcastle: Best bet

Ilkay Gundogan to score anytime at 15/4

Opta facts

• Manchester City have won each of their last 11 Premier League home games against Newcastle, scoring 39 goals and conceding just seven in return. It’s the Citizens’ longest winning home run against an opponent in their top-flight history.
• Newcastle haven’t won any of their last 16 away league games against Man City (D2 L14), last winning such a game against them in September 2000 (1-0). Their current run of 11 straight away defeats against Man City is their longest such losing streak in their league history.
• Manchester City have scored in each of their last 23 Premier League games against Newcastle (61 goals in total) – only Arsenal have had a longer run of scoring in consecutive games against an opponent in the competition (24 vs West Bromwich Albion).
• Newcastle have lost each of their last five league Boxing Day games, since a 5-1 win against Stoke in 2013. Indeed, in the Premier League the Magpies have lost more Boxing Day games (14) and conceded more Boxing Day goals (42) than any other side in the competition.

Sheffield United v Everton betting tips

• 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
• Match odds: Home 7/2 | Draw 11/4 | Away 3/4

Sheffield United's start has led to comparisons with Derby's infamous 2007/08 campaign, but they did pick up a point at Brighton last time out. They led up until the closing minutes, though in xG (Expected Goals) terms the Blades were lucky to avoid defeat - Albion posted a huge 3.01 to Sheffield United's 0.52.

This week sees them face an Everton side who have enjoyed a great run of results. Home wins over Arsenal and Chelsea either side of victory at Leicester means they will hold plenty of confidence going into a game that they are quite rightly odds-on to win.

The most impressive thing is that Carlo Ancelotti's side are doing this without fit full-backs and without their most creative player in James Rodriguez. His goals and assists rate may have dropped as the season has gone on but his attacking output has not and he is a vital part of this Toffees team.

The Blades are missing key players of their own but results have been far from acceptable in any circumstances. Generally though, Sheffield United are losing narrowly. Nine of their 12 defeats have been by a single goal, with only Chelsea, Southampton and Wolves bucking the trend.

If Chris Wilder's men are to lose again here, we can expect it to be another close game.

Before defeats against Manchester United and Leicester, the Blades' five matches at Bramall Lane had all seen under 2.5 goals. It's a trend that should continue but there is a bet that covers an Everton win with the hosts getting onto the scoresheet as well.

Everton to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 is a 15/8 shout with Sky Bet and that has been the scoreline in nine of Sheffield United's losses. It was also the result in each of Everton's three recent wins, while they beat Crystal Palace 2-1 and Tottenham 1-0 earlier this season.

Taking a low-scoring away win is the best bet in this game. The Blades' problems are evident, they are already 10 points adrift of safety and the picture could look a lot worse as we head into 2021.

Score prediction: Sheffield United 0-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Sheffield United v Everton: Best bet

Everton to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 15/8

Opta facts

• After winning both Premier League meetings with Everton in the inaugural campaign of 1992-93, Sheffield United have won just one of their last six against the Toffees (D2 L3), winning 2-0 at Goodison Park last season.
• Following their 1-0 win at Bramall Lane last season, Everton are looking to win back-to-back away league games against Sheffield United for the first time since January 1897.
• The team bottom of the table haven’t won any of their last six Boxing Day Premier League games (D3 L3), with Sunderland the last such side to win against Everton in 2013 (1-0).
• Everton are unbeaten in their last five Premier League Boxing Day games (W4 D1) since losing 0-1 against Stoke in 2014. Away from home, the Toffees are unbeaten in their last seven such matches (W4 D3) since a 0-4 loss at Aston Villa in 2005.
• Sheffield United remain winless in their 14 Premier League games this season (D2 L12) and are just the third side to be without a win by Christmas in English top-flight history after Burnley in 1889-90 and Bolton in 1902-03.

Arsenal v Chelsea betting tips

• 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
• Match odds: Home 29/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 10/11

After being thumped by Manchester City in the last eight of the Carabao Cup on Tuesday, Arsenal's underwhelming season doesn't get any easier.

A game against a Chelsea side who have enjoyed beating bottom-half teams with ease is not what Mikel Arteta would have wanted as he searches for a result to both spark the Gunners' campaign into life, and - being brutally honest - to save his own skin.

They are 14th in the table and their top-four hopes are surely already over. We did make the point about trying not to write teams off too early but the statistics show nothing positive for in terms of things getting better; Arsenal fans must be following Brighton and Burnley's results more than Manchester United and Tottenham's these days.

For Chelsea, fifth place is decent enough at this stage of the season but they are trailing Liverpool by six points. We can make a case for giving Frank Lampard time to gel a team together, but a huge amount of money has been spent and anything less than involvement in the title race should be viewed as failure. The positive is that they can make it back-to-back wins here.

I'm really surprised to see Chelsea at even money in some places. Arsenal's season as a whole has been miserable and they've picked up just seven points from seven games at the Emirates - only four teams have a worse home record. There is an element of thinking Arsenal must turn things around eventually, but that is no justification to ignore such an attractive price on an away win.

The Blues' record against bottom-half teams this term is excellent, beating all of Brighton, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Leeds, Newcastle and Sheffield United by at least two goals. Whether Arsenal like it or not, for now at least, they belong in that group of teams.

This could turn out to be a very uncomfortable afternoon for Arteta, who has so far failed to find the right formula to utilise the talented attacking players at his disposal; Arsenal barely muster a shot, never mind a shot on target.

Chelsea invested heavily in their attack during the summer, including the acquisition of Timo Werner.

A lot has been made of his impact - or perceived lack of - so far but we need to judge him as a winger rather than a striker, as that looks to be his more settled role at Stamford Bridge for the moment. Even with those questions, eight goals and six assists in all competitions is a pretty good return.

Five of his assists have come in the Premier League which makes the 4/1 available on an assist surprising. He grabbed a helper on Tammy Abraham's first against West Ham and should cause some problems for the Arsenal defence.

This is a player who, despite predominantly playing as a centre forward for RB Leipzig, registered 13 assists last season - the third successive campaign Werner has ended in double figures. It's a part of the German's game that he doesn't get nearly enough credit for.

With goals expected, it's worth backing that 4/1 but also taking small stakes to the 40/1 for two or more assists. Werner had at least two assists against Mainz and Wolfsburg last season.

When it comes to the outright, we could go into the handicaps to get extra value but the near enough even money price on a Chelsea win is good enough, personally.

However, with goals expected, the better prices can be found in the assists market and backing Werner to make an impact.

Score prediction: Arsenal 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Arsenal v Chelsea: Best bets

Timo Werner to have 1+ assists at 4/1

Timo Werner to have 2+ assists at 40/1

Opta facts

• Arsenal lost this exact fixture 1-2 last season, despite being 1-0 ahead until the 83rd minute. They’ve not lost back-to-back home league games against Chelsea since November 2009.
• Chelsea have lost just two of their last 17 Premier League meetings with Arsenal (W9 D6), with both of those defeats coming at the Emirates (0-3 in September 2016, 0-2 in January 2019).
• Arsenal are winless in their last seven Premier League games (D2 L5) – only once in the competition’s history have they had a longer run without a win, going eight games between November 1992-January 1993.
• Chelsea haven’t lost three consecutive Premier League away games since February 2019, a run which included a defeat at Arsenal.

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace betting tips

• 15:00 GMT on BBC One
• Match odds: Home 10/11 | Draw 13/5 | Away 29/10

Premier League football returns to a wider audience when Aston Villa entertain Crystal Palace at 3pm on BBC One. The hosts are starting to accumulate points following a rough patch while Palace will be looking to bounce back from a 7-0 humiliation by Liverpool.

That was a remarkable game that summed up the madness of this season pretty well. Palace had enjoyed a good few weeks before that and the Reds were struggling somewhat; out of nowhere came a 7-0 away win, all the more bizarre given that the Eagles played fairly well in the first-half.

What we have here is a meeting between Villa and Palace teams who have hardly been inspiring with their respective home and away records. Since their 7-2 win over Liverpool (again, this Premier League season) Villa have picked up just one point from four home games; a welcome 0-0 draw with Burnley given that they had conceded nine goals in the three home games prior.

Palace lost to nil at Burnley and Wolves but those games came in between victories at Fulham and West Brom. Even the draw at West Ham in their last away outing could have ended in victory as they enjoyed the better of the chances. It's important to point out that even though they lost by seven in their last game, Palace are not a bad side. It was a freak result - not altogether uncommon for any team this term.

Villa's home form is probably best summed up by defeat against Brighton, that win being the only successful outcome for Albion across their last 13 in all competitions. Dean Smith's side clearly need to improve at Villa Park, and we shouldn't rule out Palace based on one result.

The context of Villa's record on their own patch is that they have won just one of four games against teams in the bottom-seven of the table. That was a 1-0 win over a Sheffield United side that played more than an hour with 10 men, and have since moved on to just two points after 14 games.

Palace need a response. Roy Hodgson's team will have been spending the week regathering themselves and ensuring they are far more organised this time out. Who knows, if Jordan Ayew hadn't put the ball behind Wilfried Zaha early on against Liverpool it could have been a very different story.

You can get close enough to even money if you shop around on Villa not to win this game, with most bookmakers going to 5/6 or 10/11.

Even with last week's result, I'm willing to put my faith in Palace to bounce back with at least a point.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace: Best bet

Crystal Palace/Draw on double chance at 20/21

Opta facts

• Aston Villa have won just one of their last 10 Premier League matches on Boxing Day (D4 L5), though this did come against Norwich last season. They last won top-flight games on consecutive Boxing Days in 1988/1989.
• Of all teams to play at least 10 Premier League games on Boxing Day, Crystal Palace’s matches have seen the lowest goals-per-game ratio (1.5), with the Eagles scoring eight and conceding seven in their 10 matches.
• Crystal Palace have conceded in each of their last 13 Premier League games, since beating Southampton 1-0 on the opening weekend. The Eagles conceded as many goals in their 0-7 defeat to Liverpool last time out as they had in their six previous league games combined.
• This will be Crystal Palace boss Roy Hodgson’s 341st Premier League game in charge, overtaking Rafael Benítez into the top 10 for all-time games managed in the competition.

Fulham v Southampton betting tips

• 15:00 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
• Match odds: Home 21/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 5/4

Fulham are a good example for not writing teams off too early in the season. Scott Parker's men needed a few weeks to find their feet in the Premier League and, combined with a strong end to the transfer window, results have picked up recently - they have lost just one of their last five.

The Cottagers can consider themselves unlucky not to have beaten Newcastle last time out as they were the much better side in the first-half, but a red card for Joachim Andersen, which has since been overturned, and questionable penalty decision in the second-half allowed the hosts back into a game which eventually finished 1-1.

Parker will be relieved to have been successful in appealing against Andersen's suspension. The centre-back is Fulham's presence in the air defensively, with an average of 2.9 aerial duels won per game. Next best is Tosin Adarabioyo with a much lower 2.2.

They don't concede many from set-pieces, but they are facing a Southampton side who are very good when it comes to dead-ball situations. I have enough confidence in what we saw from Jannik Vestergaard last week to back him again.

The Saints defender had an effort on target saved and put a free header over the crossbar. If Southampton had won some corners in the final half-hour of their 1-0 defeat by Manchester City, I genuinely believe Vestergaard would have scored. Every set-piece was looking for his head and with James Ward-Prowse putting the ball in, it was mostly finding the target. It was easy to see why the Dane has scored three times already this season.

It's usually a mismatch whoever Vestergaard comes up against as he averages 4.2 successful aerial duels per game, much higher than any Fulham player - someone is going to have been on their mettle to stop him.

Fulham's last three Premier League games have all seen the opposition take at least five corners, with Brighton and Liverpool seeing eight each. Southampton have taken a minimum of six in each of their last three games, so we can expect plenty of opportunities for their big centre-half - all we need is one really good one.

Rather than take the 21/10 for a shot on target, it's worth playing the bigger prices in a game where Saints can end Fulham's good run of form.

Score prediction: Fulham 0-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Fulham v Southampton: Best bets

Jannik Vestergaard to score first at 28/1

Jannik Vestergaard to score anytime at 12/1

Opta facts

• Southampton have won three of their last four Premier League meetings with Fulham (L1), keeping a clean sheet in each victory. Saints had won just one of their first 10 games against Fulham in the competition (D6 L3), conceding in nine of those 10 matches.
• Fulham haven’t won a home league game on Boxing Day since 2003, drawing three and losing one of their four such games since. However, their last victory at home on 26th December was in a Premier League match against Southampton (2-0).
• Southampton have won six of their last eight league games on Boxing Day (D1 L1), with their only defeat in that run coming at Tottenham in 2017 (2-5).
• Southampton’s Danny Ings has scored nine goals in his last 11 Premier League away games – his next goal will be his 50th in the competition (11 for Burnley, 3 for Liverpool, 35 for Southampton).
• Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has been involved in seven Premier League goals this season (4 goals, 3 assists). Only in 2019-20 (5 goals, 3 assists) and 2016-17 (4 goals, 4 assists) has he been involved in more in a single campaign.

Leicester v Manchester United betting tips

• 12:30 GMT on BT Sport 1
• Match odds: Home 15/8 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/10

It's a cracker to begin the Boxing Day feast of football as Leicester welcome Manchester United with both teams seeing some good results in recent weeks. This is a top-five encounter based on the form table, although United will fancy their chances of success given their perfect away record so far.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men beat Leeds 6-2 in a thriller on Sunday which could have easily finished 10-5. The newly-promoted side have a reputation for attacking football but their makeshift defence was punished at Old Trafford; we once again have two strong attacks on show here, but we can expect a lower scoring contest.

This is a game between two of the top-five in the form table although United will be confident of victory given their perfect league record on the road. They have won and scored at least three goals in all six of their away games.

Leicester have won four of their last six in all competitions and bounced back from a disappointing 2-0 defeat to Everton by beating Tottenham by the same scoreline on Sunday. In all of their recent victories, the Foxes posted the better xG (Expected Goals) rate, so they can take extra positives too.

A regular feature for the hosts has been penalties. Leicester have been awarded nine in the Premier League this season, eight of which they scored, and that gives them a comfortable margin over the four teams in joint-second with five. One of those is Manchester United.

Bruno Fernandes often provides winning anytime goalscorer bets and fantasy football points through his success from the spot.

It's 2/1 with Sky Bet that a penalty is scored in this encounter but the 6/4 on one being taken is good enough value without having to worry about the outcome. Throw in Mike Dean as the referee and that price looks even better - he's one of the few to have awarded at least three this season.

And, of course, this is all before we even consider the VAR roulette that will undoubtedly be played throughout the Christmas period of a campaign that has already seen a record-breaking number of spot-kicks dished out by officials.

Despite both teams being above even money for victory, there is still a level of uncertainty about United even with their away record. Taking the draw may be the best outright option, but going for a penalty looks the strongest play.

Score prediction: Leicester 1-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Leicester v Manchester United: Best bet

A penalty taken at 6/4

Opta facts

• Manchester United have scored in each of their last 22 Premier League meetings with Leicester – against no side have they had a longer scoring streak in the competition (also 22 vs Aston Villa between 1997-2008).
• Since returning to the Premier League in 2014, Leicester have lost five of their six games played on Boxing Day in the competition, winning the other 2-1 against Manchester City in 2018.
• Manchester United have the most wins (21) and highest win rate (81%) of any Premier League side in Boxing Day games. They’ve lost just two games on 26th December in the competition, against Middlesbrough in 2002 (1-3) and Stoke in 2015 (0-2).
• Since Brendan Rodgers’ first game in charge of Leicester, Jamie Vardy has scored more Premier League goals than any other player (43). Only Luis Suárez (54) scored more Premier League goals under the Northern Irishman than Vardy has managed so far.
• Since his Premier League debut in February, Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes has been involved in more goals than any other player in the competition (29 – 17 goals, 12 assists). The Portuguese has been involved in 50% of the Red Devils’ league goals in that time (29/58).

Odds correct at 1400 GMT (22/12/20)

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