Jake Pearson takes a look through the relegation betting for the 2021/22 Premier League season, picking out his three best bets.
Premier League betting tips: Relegation
2pts Norwich to be relegated at evens (Betfred)
1pt Newcastle to be relegated at 3/1 (General)
1pt Brighton to be relegated at 8/1 (General)
After finishing rock bottom of the Premier League in 2019/20, Norwich City wasted no time in making their return to the top flight of English football, winning the Sky Bet Championship by six points last season.
The 97 points they accrued throughout the season was the highest tally a team in the Championship has achieved since Wolves claimed 99 in 2017/18, so it is difficult to suggest that the Canaries did not deserve to finish in top spot.
However, Daniel Farke’s side conceded 36 goals from chances equating to 52.5 expected goals against (xGA), and conceding a plethora of chances, as well as goals, was a major reason for them finishing bottom of the Premier League two seasons ago, along with shortcomings in the recruitment department.
This summer has been slightly different, with Norwich’s signings looking a little shrewder, but the fact remains that they have shipped out five players, and have signed six (and counting), meaning the team that starts the first game of the Premier League season could be a far cry from the one that finished the final game of their Championship campaign.
Are Norwich worth favourites to be relegated?
Farke may feel he has learnt from his previous mistakes, but the fact that Norwich are just as open at the back as they were when they last played at this level is a worry, and they do look to be worthy favourites for relegation.
A price of even money (incidentally the same price they were to be relegated in 2019/20) for NORWICH TO BE RELEGATED, could prove big, particularly given their tough start – they start their season with matches against Manchester City and Liverpool, and do not face a side who finished in the bottom half of the Premier League last season until October.
Another relegation battle for Newcastle?
After coming in for a torrid amount of scrutiny during the first half of the season, Steve Bruce managed to steer Newcastle to a relatively comfortable 12th place finish, some 17 points clear of the relegation zone.
However, for long periods of the season the Magpies’ safety was far from assured, and the correlation between games played by Allan Saint-Maximim and Callum Wilson, and an upturn in performance and results for Newcastle, was palpable.
When Saint-Maximim played last season, Newcastle averaged 1.36 points per game, compared to the 0.85 PPG without the Frenchman. Wilson’s numbers were incredibly similar, the Magpies averaging 1.35 PPG with the forward, compared to 0.83 without.
There is every chance that either one or both of these players leave this summer, but even if not, with both players prone to injuries, pinning your hopes of survival on two players is a risky game, and with everything that is currently hanging over the club in terms of a potential takeover, a price of 3/1 for NEWCASTLE TO BE RELEGATED makes appeal.
Are Brighton in danger of relegation?
The final recommended bet will not be a popular one among football’s data analysts, with Graham Potter’s Brighton looking just too big a price at 8/1.
Brighton finished fifth in Infogol’s expected goals table last season, performing incredibly well in both expected goals for (xGF) and expected goals against (xGA) metrics, but they struggled to translate their performances into points, ending the campaign just two places above the relegation zone.
The reasons why are fairly obvious. Albion scored the sixth-fewest goals in the division, while away from home only Sheffield United and Wolves netted less than their 18. The prevailing narrative is that Brighton's main issue is the lack of a striker to convert all the chances they create, or at least a general acceptance that they are incredibly wasteful in front of goal.
The premise of xG is that results will eventually come for Potter's men if strong performances continue. As a general footballing idea it is common sense that the more often you play well, the more likely you are to win.
Will Brighton will be relegated? Probably not. Does backing them present value? Yes.
For all the praise Potter receives, the fact remains that his managerial career in Britain has hardly been laden with success. The Swansea team he only managed to guide to 10th in the Sky Bet Championship have since made successive play-offs, while his two seasons at Brighton have seen 15th and 16th placed finishes. Say it quietly, but Chris Hughton finished 15th and 17th with the same club.
Brighton have accumulated 41 points in each of the last two seasons under Potter, as well as 36 and 40 under Hughton, and with a lack of obvious relegation candidates in the Premier League this term, the Seagulls must be considered as one of the sides who are at least in some danger of dropping out of the league.
Brighton may well go on to enjoy a good season, but the fact that they are much longer in the betting than Southampton, Crystal Palace, Wolves and Newcastle, all teams who finished above them last term, means BRIGHTON TO BE RELEGATED is our final selection.
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