After landing 6/4 and 23/20 winners in the Sky Bet League Two play-off semi-final first legs, Michael Beardmore returns with best bets for Swindon's second-leg trip to Port Vale.
Football betting tips: League Two play-offs
1pt Harry McKirdy to score anytime at 13/5 (Paddy Power/Betfair)
1pt Harry McKirdy to have 4+ total shots at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
Swindon and Port Vale will do battle on Thursday night to complete the line-up for the Sky Bet Football League play-off finals as the Robins take a 2-1 first-leg advantage to Vale Park.
If it’s anywhere near as good as that first encounter we’re in for a treat – with Vale forced to push for a goal and Swindon a devastating side on the counter-attack, it’s all set up for a thriller.
I wrote in Wednesday night’s second-leg preview of Mansfield’s trip to Northampton that, in the past 39 Football League play-off semi-finals, only twice has the same team won both legs.
If there’s a team equipped to become the third, it’s Swindon.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Thursday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Port Vale 11/8 | Draw 23/10 | Swindon 9/5
They scored the most goals (77) in League Two this season but also conceded the most (54) of any side in the top 10 – it’s not in their nature to set up to defend a lead and that should make for an exciting spectacle at Vale Park.
Nonetheless, as in the first leg, the outright outcome is best swerved, so evenly are the sides matched before we even consider what’s at stake here. While I like the 5/2 top price you can get on a Swindon win, it has to be acknowledged a draw will suffice for them.
There are arguments to be made for the overs markets here and I’d also suggest Both Teams To Score is a probable lock at 4/5 generally for odds-on backers out there.
But we always like to seek out value and I can’t refuse the 13/5 on offer for HARRY MCKIRDY TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The pony-tailed predator has netted 10 goals in the Robins’ past 12 games, including a brace in the first leg and he will be desperate to further ram the point home to the club that released him last summer.
He’s the sort of character that will already have rehearsed his celebration in front of the Vale fans – he’s on 23 for the season and that would be a lot more if not for a couple of spells out injured.
Additionally, it's worth a punt on MCKIRDY TO HAVE 4+ SHOTS at 11/4 given the former Aston Villa trainee cannot resist trying his luck.
He has averaged 3.9 shots per game this season and that figure has increased to 4.35 over his last 20 matches - he is brimming with confidence and against his old club I see no reason that number should dip.
Port Vale v Swindon best bets and score prediction
- Harry McKirdy to score anytime at 13/5 (Paddy Power/Betfair)
- Harry McKirdy to have 4+ total shots at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Port Vale 1-2 Swindon (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 1730 BST (17/05/22)
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