Saturday lunchtime's TV offering comes from Sky Bet League Two, where league leaders Notts County host unbeaten Mansfield. Jake Osgathorpe has the best bets.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet League Two
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 13/10 (Betfair)
1.5pts Mansfield 'Draw no Bet' at 5/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Anyone who has listened to the This Week's Acca podcast this season will know I am a huge fan of both Notts County and Mansfield, and this Saturday's game sees the league leaders hosting the only unbeaten team in Sky Bet League Two.
County have taken the fourth tier by storm following promotion last season, while Mansfield have started the campaign in a controlled manner under Nigel Clough.
These two will likely be in the mix for automatic promotion come the end of the season given what we have seen so far.
With two impressive outfits who approach things in a different manner - County expansive and attacking and the Stags more cautious and controlled - assessing the pattern of the of the game is tricky.
What are the best bets?
However, I think the goal line is completely off here, with UNDER 2.5 GOALS a huge price at 13/10.
Yes, on the face of it, it's difficult to see County involved in a low-scoring contest. They have seen 48 goals in their 12 league matches to date, but this bet revolves more around their opponents.
The Stags have conceded just nine goals this season, keeping clean sheets in half of their league dates, and that focus on defensive solidity has been needed given the tough schedule they have faced.
In their first 12 matches, Clough's side have already faced five of the current top seven, with eight of their 12 opponents residing in the top half at the time of writing.
That makes their league-leading expected goals against (xGA) per game tally of 0.91 even more impressive, and that solid defence means it's no surprise that Under 2.5 has landed in all of their last five.
The Stags are quite happy to control games, and nullify their opponents attacking strengths, which could see County stopped in their tracks, as after all, Luke Williams' side are yet to face a really strong opponent this season.
The average position of opponent County have faced thus far has been 16.6. Mansfield's has been 10.6, just putting into context the huge difference in strength of schedules of the pair, and why MANSFIELD should be backed in the DRAW NO BET market to get a result.
I think, for as good as County have been, we need to put more stock in Mansfield's results and position in the table at this stage of the season than that of Williams' side due to the added context of the schedule differences, and we can also therefore see that County have been exposed defensively by teams far inferior to the Stags already this campaign - shipping 21 goals.
Clough is a canny operator, and his side have so far been the data darlings of the fourth tier, despite a tough start, so it makes complete sense to get them on board against a team yet to be properly tested at this level.
BuildABet @ 14/1
- Mansfield +1 handicap
- George Maris 3+ total shots
- Each team 20+ booking points
- 4+ corners each team
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
The case for Mansfield getting something from the game has been made above, and their midfielder George Maris is one to keep an eye on when it comes to shots. He has averaged 2.6 per 90 this season, being happy to pull the trigger from distance.
Scott Oldham is the referee for this game, and he has so far averaged 4.3 cards per game. Sky Bet League Two has been a haven for card backers, with County having averaged 32 booking points per game this season, and the Stags 22.1. With this being a huge televised game at the top of the table, don't be surprised to see plenty of yellows flashed.
Finally, these two have been great for corners this season. Mansfield have averaged 6.8 per game and Notts County 5.8, so both should cover the 4+ line.
Score prediction: Notts County 0-1 Mansfield (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Team news
The hosts will be without Cedwyn Scott and Geraldo Bajrami, both ruled out with long term knee injuries, while Notts County could also be without Jodi Jones, who sustained an injury against Barrow.
As for Mansfield, it's unknown whether Clough will make a change up front after James Gale scored a brace in the EFL Trophy in midweek, with him and Will Swan battling out for the striker spot.
Ollie Clarke had to have five stitches in his ankle after receiving a strong challenge against Wimbledon last weekend, meaning the midfielder is a doubt for this Saturday's game.
Predicted line-ups
Notts County: Stone; Brindley, Baldwin, Cameron; Adebayo-Rowling, Palmer, Bostock, Jones; Crowley, McGoldrick, Langstaff
Mansfield Town: Pym; Bowery, Flint, Brunt, Cargill; Lewis, Reed, Maris, Keillor-Dunn; Swan, Akins
Match Facts
- This will be the first Sky Bet League Two match between Notts County and Mansfield since a 1-0 win for the Magpies in February 2019; they last enjoyed successive Football League wins over the Stags in January 1998 (run of 5).
- Mansfield have conceded just four goals in their last 11 League Two games against Notts County (W6 D4 L1), and never more than once in a match in this time.
- Notts County have completed the most passes (6271), completed the most passes in the opposition half (2583), completed the most 10+ pass sequences (198) and are averaging the most possession (62.6%) in League Two this season.
- Mansfield Town are the only unbeaten team in League Two this season (P12 W4 D8 L0). This is their longest unbeaten start to a Football League season in their history.
Odds correct at 1000 BST (12/10/23)
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