Championship pair Nottingham Forest and Huddersfield Town meet for the right to progress to the FA Cup quarter-finals on Monday night. Michael Beardmore has the preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1.5pts Nottingham Forest (-1) corner handicap at 11/10 (General)
The final of eight last-16 FA Cup fifth round ties takes place at the City Ground on Monday night as Championship high-fliers Nottingham Forest and Huddersfield Town duke it out for a spot in the quarter-finals.
Both sides are enjoying better than expected second-tier seasons with surprise package Huddersfield on the cusp of the automatic promotion places and Forest recovering from a shocking start to make a run at the play-offs.
Their routes to this stage of the Cup have been somewhat polar opposites - much-changed Terriers teams eking out wins over Burnley and Barnsley while Forest have shone in front of the TV cameras to upset Premier League pair Arsenal and Leicester.
It appears the comparative seriousness with which Steve Cooper's side are taking the competition has translated to the bookmakers' odds - as Forest are considerable favourites despite Huddersfield being six places higher in the league.
Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Monday
TV channel: ITV4
Nottingham Forest 1/1 | Draw 23/10 | Huddersfield 13/5
Infogol's Expected Goals metrics suggest Huddersfield are over-performing - indeed, they should be as low as 10th in the table according to their xG process - and there is little to choose between the sides form-wise, each winning 10 of their last 15.
The main determining factor of the result could be how seriously Huddersfield choose to take the game - Wembley is now in sight and while they have fielded second strings in previous rounds, that could now change.
Of course, we are not armed with a crystal ball so it is best to find a betting area to attack that should hopefully not vary too greatly whatever side the Terriers put out - and that opportunity lies squarely in the corner markets.
It is an area where Forest have greatly outperformed their opponents this season - thus, particularly with home advantage to also factor in, we can expect that to continue whether Huddersfield go strong or make a few changes.
At the City Ground in the league this term, Forest are averaging 5.71 corners per game, among the highest in the division, and in the Championship clash between these two sides at the end of December they enjoyed eight corners to Town's three.
Huddersfield, by contrast, have the second-lowest away corner count in the Championship, averaging just 3.44 flag-kicks per game on their travels. Indeed they have registered a paltry two corners in each of their past three away games.
The Terriers are a very defence-first, cautious side on the road and with Forest's corner numbers clearly much higher, the 11/10 on FOREST (-1) CORNER HANDICAP looks a smart way in to a difficult game to predict generally.
Given their respective numbers, it would be a surprise if Forest did not register at least two more corners than their visitors.
Nottingham Forest v Huddersfield best bet and score prediction
- 1.5pts Nottingham Forest (-1) corner handicap at 11/10 (General)
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-0 Huddersfield (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1630 GMT (03/03/22)
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