Third takes on fourth in the Championship as Norwich host Blackburn. James Cantrill previews the game picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Championship
2pts Norwich to win at 7/8 (SBK)
The expectation for Norwich pre-season was a return to the top flight, and their man at the helm, Dean Smith, has the credentials with a Championship promotion already on his CV.
So far, the Canaries pursuit of their third promotion from the second tier in five seasons has been one shrouded in angst.
High expectations have loomed over a squad very much in transition.
In their last home game before the World Cup, the players were booed off after a Riley McGree strike from range condemned the Carrow Road faithful to their seventh defeat of the season.
This was their fifth defeat over a 10 game period, during which they had only won twice, not the form of promotion contenders and the boos depicting the fans unrest.
Norwich marked their return with three points, edging past Swansea in South Wales.
Russell Martin, current Swans boss and former Norwich player, quipped that Norwich were fortunate to head back to Norfolk with a win and looking at the stats you can see why.
Swansea generated an xG of 2.55 to Norwich’s 0.83, crucially the hosts missed all three of the big chances they created, whereas Teemu Pukki took his.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Norwich 3/4 | Draw 11/4| Blackburn 18/5
Blackburn Rovers have also been a touch fortunate this season.
After 22 games, Jon Dahl Tomasson’s side may currently sit in third but the underlying data suggest that the table does in fact lie.
Infogol’s model has them in 20th, they have scored 4.1 more goals then the xG they have generated and conceded 3.7 goals fewer than their xGA suggests they should have, losing ten games in total, but the xG battle on 13 occasions.
In their two games either side of the World Cup, Blackburn did not pick up a single point, conceding seven goals to Burnley and Preston North End.
Watching Rovers, the issues appear to stem from their unwavering loyalty to playing out from the back, something that they simply do not have the quality to orchestrate.
Given this, it is no surprise to see that they have struggled on the road this season averaging just over a point per game, losing 58% of their 12 away games.
Interestingly, the aforementioned Burnley and Sheffield United both put three past Blackburn without response.
Given that the Canaries are of a very similar ilk in terms of financial clout and quality of squad, you could see this clash going a similar way, which is why I am touting NORWICH TO WIN here.
Norwich v Blackburn best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Norwich to beat Blackburn at 7/8 (SBK)
Score prediction: Norwich 2-0 Blackburn (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (15/12/22)
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