Football betting tips: Nations League
1pt Over 4.5 Wales corners at 7/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Norway's Nations League campaign hasn't quite replicated the brave showings of the World Cup - they're a side sat bottom of League A, Group 4 with two games remaining.
The positive they hold is that their remaining fixtures are somewhat favourable. Hosting Wales on Saturday presents a prime opportunity to leapfrog their opponents and condemn them to likely direct relegation from the top tier of this competition before heading to Denmark where head-to-head record could prove crucial in the quest for second.
Much of that depends on the role Portugal play, who are probably worth looking at to win this competition now Cristiano Ronaldo's gone - yes, I know they've achieved that twice in the past, it's a little light-hearted joke to get things going.
I'd love nothing more than Wales to do well but it's tricky to see them getting something in Oslo as their 11/1 best price for victory suggests. Even the 10/3 on the double chance, which would give them a perhaps vital head-to-head advantage, is difficult to get involved with.
You can question how seriously 'League A' nations treat this competition (although if you ask any manager/head coach they'll obviously answer 'very') but for Wales there is naturally going to be a desire to be at the top table given recent history in major tournaments.
It's a tough evening, no doubt, but one in which they simply won't roll over because the odds suggest they've got little chance of success.
Game state could be key and with Norway expected to lead at some stage, WALES CORNERS may be worth consideration. The best price of 7/2 on OVER 4.5, with 5/2 and above available elsewhere, is my play for the contest.
A simple look at their corners taken figure across the four games so far would leave you questioning why this is the approach when they've failed to achieve it in any but, again, we need to consider how the game is likely to play out.
Not only are Norway a best price of 1/4 to win on the night they are no bigger than 8/13 to hold the advantage at half-time. Now that's not to say it'll definitely happen on the basis of short odds but it's a good guide of what the money is expecting.
And their price to win by at least a two-goal margin on the handicap is a general 8/13. That would give Norway the head-to-head lead between the two sides as Wales only won by a single goal in Cardiff last month.
With the visitors chasing, the hope is that they then rack up their corner count to a decent amount. They did take four in Denmark when losing 2-0 and that was an earlier game in this edition of the Nations League.
Wales will want to keep their spot among Europe's elite. While it may not play out like that, we can be certain that they won't go down without a fight.
Odds correct at 11:40 GMT (12/11/26)
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