Football betting tips: Nations League
2pts Willi Orban 1+ total shots at 17/20 (Betway)
0.5pt Willi Orban 2+ total shots at 15/4 (Betway)
1.5pts Hungary to win at 7/4 (BOYLESports)
Northern Ireland vs Hungary
- Kick-off: Monday, 19:45 BST
- TV: BBC One NI, BBC Three
- Live odds, form and stats
Northern Ireland put in an excellent display in Georgia over the weekend, keeping a clean sheet against a decent attacking side thanks to a penalty save from Pierce Charles before grabbing a 99th-minute winner through elder brother Shea.
They welcome a Hungary side who lost 1-0 at home to Ukraine (xG: HUN 2.03 - 1.29 UKR) in their opener, though they created more than enough to warrant at least a point, firing off 17 shots in total.
Interestingly, centre-back WILLI ORBAN took the most shots of any player in that match, racking up four attempts, so the 17/20 for just 1+ TOTAL SHOTS looks overpriced.
The 33-year-old is a massive set-piece threat, finding the net twice for RB Leipzig across all competitions already this season and firing eight shots in just four Bundesliga outings.
Hungary are ranked 40th in the world and Northern Ireland sit 70th, highlighting the potential gap in quality between the teams, meaning the visitors are likely to be the aggressors and rack up plenty of corners and free-kicks.
We also have to factor in that Northern Ireland's towering centre-back Dan Ballard picked up an injury in Tbilisi and is unlikely to play which does weaken the hosts from dead-ball situations, increasing Orban's chances to get shots away.
As a result we'll also take ORBAN 2+ TOTAL SHOTS at 15/4. He's 12/1 to score anytime for those interested.
Given the gap in rankings, which isn't everything of course, it is somewhat surprising to see HUNGARY priced at 7/4 TO WIN.
Before the weekend they were as short as even money - the reaction to two results seems way overblown.
Ukraine side who are the highest ranked team in the group (33rd) while Northern Ireland's narrow win came over a Georgia side who had to play behind closed doors and also happen to be the lowest-ranked team in the group (72nd).
Granted Windsor Park isn't the easiest place to visit, with Northern Ireland winning nine of their last 13, but nearly all of those wins have come against lowly ranked sides, with the only scalp coming against Denmark in 2023 and a draw against Switzerland in a 2025 friendly.
Defeats have come against Slovenia and Germany in that span, while Hungary's away results haven't been as bad as they appear given they were contesting League A of the Nations League.
Against sides ranked lower than themselves they have won four of an unbeaten five away games (Scotland, Bosnia, Azerbaijan, Rep of Ireland, Armenia) so there seems to be plenty of juice in the price.
Odds correct at 11:30 BST (28/09/26)
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