Newcastle vs Milan betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Newcastle to win at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1pt Martin Dubravka to be carded at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
Back when Newcastle were drawn in the Champions League's so called 'group of death' would they have taken this scenario?
Beat AC Milan in combination with PSG failing to do so at Borussia Dortmund and they will qualify for the last 16. Simply avoid defeat and they will enter the knockout stage of the Europa League.
Dortmund may already be through, but only victory will see them top Group F. Given PSG lost both their previous away fixtures, hope remains.
Milan aren't out of it either. They sit level on five points with the Magpies but their goal difference is four worse.
They must win to avoid finishing bottom, and should they manage to do so then only a PSG defeat in Germany will be enough to see them progress.
What are the best bets?
A lengthy injury list and consecutive three-goal defeats at Everton and Tottenham has left Newcastle a little battered and bruised. What a relief, then, to return for some much-needed home comforts.
Only Luton and Sheffield United have taken fewer Premier League points on the road this season, but at home they remain imperious. Darwin Nunez's late brace for Liverpool back in August is all that separates them from a 100% record after eight top-flight matches at St James'.
They now welcome a Milan team who have won just three of their last 10 matches, losing five.
Eddie Howe's side went off at a staggeringly short 8/15 at home to Dortmund in their last Champions League home game. The 10/11 about NEWCASTLE TO WIN against an inferior, out-of-form opponent is therefore advised.
While not advised, it is worth keeping an eye on NEWCASTLE TO QUALIFY which is drifting towards a backable price, although the 12/5 (3.40) quotes are still short of the 3.65 available when doubling a Newcastle win and Dortmund win/draw manually.
A second selection of MARTIN DUBRAVKA TO BE SHOWN A CARD looks worth a play.
The Slovakia international is currently deputising for the injured Nick Pope and it feels a distinct possibility that a caution could be shown to the Newcastle goalkeeper should they be leading late on and he decides to begin running down the clock.
The 13/2 with Sky Bet is a significant jump from the 15/4 elsewhere, perhaps a result of his limited playing time in recent years.
BuildABet @ 42/1
- Newcastle to win
- Over 3.5 goals
- Martin Dubravka card
- Callum Wilson to score anytime
This is a match that both teams have to win, which could result in a basketball-style contest. CALLUM WILSON should return from injury and always delivers when Newcastle need him.
Team news
Callum Wilson and Sean Longstaff both returned off the bench against Tottenham and could start.
That will be a major boost to a Newcastle side that has been unchanged in terms of outfield positions for the last five matches with 10 first-team players currently on the sidelines.
Milan have a lengthy injury list too but should have star man Rafael Leao back fit so he is expected to replace Christian Pulisic in the XI.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle: Dubravka; Trippier, Lascelles, Schar, Livramento; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Joelinton; Almiron, Wilson, Gordon.
Milan: Maignan; Calabria, Tomori, Hernandez, Florenzi; Loftus-Cheek, Reijnders, Musah; Chukwueze, Giroud, Leao.
Match facts
- The only previous European encounter between Newcastle and Milan was a goalless draw on MD1 of this season’s UEFA Champions League in which the Italian side had 25 shots without success.
- Milan are the first Italian side to visit St James’ Park to face Newcastle in Europe since Internazionale in November 2002, winning 4-1 in a UEFA Champions League group stage match.
- Milan have won just one of their 21 away major European matches in England (D7 L13), a 1-0 win at Man Utd in February 2005. They are winless against nine other teams – Ipswich Town, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Everton, Manchester City, Leeds United, Arsenal, Portsmouth and Liverpool.
- Newcastle lost 1-0 to Borussia Dortmund in their last home UEFA Champions League game – the Magpies have never lost consecutive home games in major European competition. The only season they have lost more than one game at St James’ Park was in 2002-03 (three).
- Milan have only finished bottom of their group on two previous occasions in the UEFA Champions League, doing so in the first round group stage in 1999-00 and in 2021-22 under current manager Stefano Pioli.
- Milan have only scored three goals in the UEFA Champions League, with no side scoring fewer through the opening five matchdays. They are the team with the biggest negative difference between their goals scored and expected goals this term (-4.9 – three goals from 7.9 xG).
- Newcastle drew 0-0 with Milan in the reverse fixture in the UEFA Champions League this season, despite the Italian side attempting 25 shots in that match – this is the most shots a team have had without scoring in a single game in the competition in 2023-24.
- In the opening five matchdays of the UEFA Champions League this season, Milan were the team with the highest percentage of their passes breaking at least one opposition line (15.4%). Théo Hernández is the player who has made the most line-breaking passes for the Italian side in the competition this term (41).
- Milan’s Rafael Leão (54) is one of only three players to have completed 50+ take-ons in the UEFA Champions League since the start of last season, along with Vinícius Júnior and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. The Portuguese winger also has the best take-on success rate of any of those three players (55.7%).
- Newcastle goalkeeper Nick Pope – who will be unavailable in this game – was the top-ranked goalkeeper in the UEFA Champions League this season for goals prevented, based on the quality of shots on target faced. Pope conceded just five goals from an xG on target faced total of 9.9, with the English stopper preventing just under five goals (+4.9).
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (12/12/23)
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