Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Luke Shaw to be carded at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Kieran Trippier to be carded at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
This is a pretty big football match in the race for Champions League football as sixth-placed Manchester United - how did you get there? - travel to seventh-placed Newcastle, both within touching distance of fifth-placed Tottenham and fourth-placed Aston Villa.
United's performances of late have been poor, shipping plenty of chances regularly, while the Magpies are thin on the ground in terms of players available, though they have had an extra day's rest over their visitors.
Newcastle's home form has been excellent this season, winning six of seven, and their performances excellent too, so they are the most likely winners here in my eyes, but with that reflected in the prices I'm delving into the cards markets instead.
What are the best bets?
There is a common theme with my selections this week - full-back cards. Given the width and the directness with which both teams' wingers play, the full-backs could be in for tough evenings on both sides.
The referee appointment for this one is excellent for card backers, with Robert Jones the man in the middle. He has averaged 5.42 cards per game across all competitions this season, while producing three red cards in 10 Premier League outings.
First up, opposing left-backs have been carded in eight of Newcastle's 20 games across all competitions this season, including in the recent Carabao Cup match between these two sides - Sergio Reguilon on that occasion - a strike rate of 40% which would imply blanket odds of 6/4.
United left-back LUKE SHAW was carded in midweek having made four fouls away against Galatasaray - another tough place to visit - and his price of 2/1 TO BE CARDED can't be turned down.
While still regaining full match fitness, Shaw averaged 1.5 fouls per game last season, and with Alejandro Garnacho - a winger who doesn't do much tracking - likely to start ahead of him again, the Englishman could be overrun at times during this game.
Deciding who plays right-back could be a key call for Ten Hag, but if Diogo Dalot gets the nod he could be in for an exceptionally difficult evening.
Aaron Wan-Bissaka started in midweek when Dalot was selected, so with doubts around who starts I'm not going to include in the staking plan this time around, but should Dalot start, back him to be carded.
Whereas Wan-Bissaka could deal with Anthony Gordon's straight-line runs well enough to perhaps avoid a card, Dalot would struggle.
The fact that opposing right-backs have been carded in 10 of the Magpies 20 games shows the headache Gordon in particular causes, with the 29/10 on offer for Dalot to receive a card some way above the implied odds of even-money from that strike rate.
Even Reece James, a better defender than Dalot, got run ragged last weekend, and was eventually given his marching orders in Newcastle's 4-1 win over Chelsea.
Finally, I'm going to back one of Newcastle's full-backs to pick up a card too, KIERAN TRIPPIER.
The Englishman has been booked four times in his last 11 Premier League appearances and he comes up against Garnacho, who has been fouled an average of 1.75 times per 90 this season.
It's now three straight games in which Garnacho's opposing full-back has been carded and given Newcastle are likely to be in the ascendancy, the Argentine's pace could cause issues for the hosts on the break, increasing the likelihood of a 'cynical foul' from Tripper, something he has previous in committing.
At 9/2, his price is simply too big, and with the potential for Garnacho to switch wings with Marcus Rashford in this clash, there will be no respite for Newcastle's right-back.
BuildABet @ 25/1
- Newcastle to win
- Luke Shaw to be carded
- Kieran Trippier to be carded
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Newcastle's home form has been sensational since the start of last season. They have won 18 of 26 home Premier League games, losing only to Liverpool (twice) and Arsenal.
Manchester United's underlying numbers when travelling are poor, and their defence is shaky at best, so a home win combined with full-back cards appeals.
Team news
All of Jacob Murphy (shoulder), Joe Willock (Achilles), Matt Targett (thigh), Javier Manquillo (groin), Sven Botman (knee), Harvey Barnes (foot), Elliot Anderson (back), Callum Wilson (thigh) and Dan Burn (back) are out of contention for Newcastle.
Sean Longstaff, who missed the midweek Champions League game, will be assessed ahead of the game. Eddie Howe could well call upon all 11 of his starters from the Parc des Princes again, meaning 17-year-old protege Lewis Miley should again start.
As for Manchester United, Lisandro Martinez (foot), Casemiro (thigh), Mason Mount (calf), Jonny Evans (thigh), Christian Eriksen (knee), Amad Diallo (knee) and Tyrell Malacia (knee) are all absent for this clash, as is Jadon Sancho, whose exile from the first team is now reaching the three-month mark
Erik ten Hag will have Marcus Rashford back from a Champions League suspension, so Antony - who has just battled back from a knock - may return to the substitutes bench. After a handful of alterations against Galatasaray did not bear fruit, Ten Hag could revert to a similar-looking side to the one that cruised past Everton, which would allow Kobbie Mainoo to start again, and Diogo Dalot to come in for Aaron Wan-Bissaka.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle: Pope; Trippier, Schar, Lascelles, Livramento; Joelinton, Guimaraes, Miley; Almiron, Isak, Gordon
Man Utd: Onana; Dalot, Maguire, Lindelof, Shaw; McTominay, Mainoo; Garnacho, Fernandes, Rashford; Hojlund
Match facts
- Newcastle won this exact fixture 2-0 in April – they’ve not beaten Manchester United in consecutive league games since October 1972.
- Newcastle kept a clean sheet in both Premier League meetings with Manchester United last season – they’ve not gone three league games in a row without conceding against the Red Devils since November 1897 in the second tier.
- None of Manchester United’s last 20 Premier League games has ended in a draw (W13 L7). Only once in their top-flight history have they had a longer run without a draw, going 21 games in the 1893-94 campaign (W4 L17).
- Having won just three of their first 12 Premier League away games in 2023 (D2 L7), Manchester United have now won each of their last four on the road. They last won more consecutively between June and December 2020 (10).
- Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon has been involved in six goals in his last seven Premier League games (4 goals, 2 assists), as many as in his previous 45 appearances (5 goals, 1 assist).
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (30/11/23)
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