Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
2pts Erling Haaland to score anytime at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1.5pt Bruno Guimaraes to be carded at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
1.5pt Joelinton to be carded at 21/10 (bet365)
1pt Bernardo Silva to be carded at 27/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Guimaraes, Joelinton and Silva all to be carded at 25/1 (bet365)
Reigning champions Newcastle have put up an excellent defence of their crown so far in the Carabao Cup but they face their stiffest test yet as they take on Manchester City over two legs.
The first game is at St. James' Park, a fortress for Eddie Howe's men, and you just know the hosts will be going for it right from the off given they will likely need a lead to take with them to the Etihad in three weeks' time.
That should mean yet another high-scoring game, not only because the Magpies have to attack and possess a shaky defence, but because Manchester City are in the same boat.
Pep Guardiola is still without John Stones, Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol, meaning we should again see the same centre-back pairing which faced Brighton last week in 21-year-old Abdukodir Khusanov and 20-year-old Max Alleyne.
Attack is the best form of defence for both these teams, and given the sheer quality in forward areas we should anticipate a raft of goals, just as there have been in recent Newcastle home games against Bournemouth (4 in 90 mins, 7 after 120), Leeds (7), Chelsea (4) and Tottenham (4).
Understandably the markets are all over goals, so we should instead pivot to goalscorers, where City's main man ERLING HAALAND has to be backed TO SCORE ANYTIME at a shade of odds-on.
Haaland's scoring rate has slowed since the November international break, scoring a total of seven goals in 12 starts, failing to find the net in seven of those, but he will get chances here against a vulnerable Newcastle team who have been shipping chances and goals for fun.
In fact, Newcastle have conceded two or more goals in five of their last eight home games in all competitions, and in the Premier League match at St. James' Park this season City racked up 2.49 xG and were unfortunate to lose 2-1.
On that occasion Haaland failed to score, but he was on the end of chances equating to 1.54 xG, so really ought to have been on the scoresheet, but he can make up for that in this Carabao Cup first leg. I was close to tipping the brace, but 9/2 is a skinny price away at Newcastle.
Chris Kavanagh is the referee and looks a decent appointment for card-backers. He's averaged 3.88 cards per game across all competitions this season, but even more encouragement can be drawn by the fact his sole Carabao Cup game was here, at St. James' Park, where he brandished seven cards in Newcastle's win over Tottenham.
A flick through the recent head-to-heads throws up two names who seemingly can't escape having their name taken when these two teams meet - BRUNO GUIMARAES and JOELINTON.
They are priced on the short side TO BE CARDED at 5/2 and 21/10, but for good reason. Guimaraes has been carded in seven of his last eight matches against Manchester City, while Joelinton has picked up a booking in five of the last six times he's started against City.
Factor in the magnitude of the game and the importance of a positive result in this home leg of the semi-final, plus the fact Guimaraes and Joelinton have solid records for cards this season (five and eight respectively) and both had their names taken in the semi-finals last season, and I'll happily back the pair modestly.
Sticking with the midfielders, BERNARDO SILVA is worth inclusion in our staking plan too at 11/4. He is City's most-carded player this season having picked up eight across all competitions, which is likely due to him playing in a deeper central midfield role.
He committed five fouls in his last league outing against Chelsea and a repeat wouldn't be a surprise given the excellent foul-drawing nature of the Newcastle midfield and the potential of a card for accumulation.
Bernardo is one of football's great cynical foulers, and also one of the game's great moaners.
Silva was booked for complaining in the league meeting between these two sides and has been carded in two of the last three head-to-heads he's started.
At 25/1, we'll back the CARD TREBLE too, just in case.
Odds correct at 13:55 GMT (09/01/26)
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