Newcastle v Burnley tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Newcastle face their second relegation six pointer of the week as they welcome Burnley, and Jake Osgathorpe thinks we could see an entertaining contest.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Both Teams to Score at 4/5 (William Hill)
1pt the Draw at 12/5 (General)
Newcastle's 'big week' got off to the worst possible start, as they were reduced to 10-men just nine minutes into the first of their relegation six pointers.
A 1-1 draw with Norwich could therefore be seen as a good result given the circumstances, but single points against direct rivals aren't good enough when you are in Newcastle's position.
Eddie Howe's side are bottom of the Premier League table with seven defeats and seven draws in 14 games, leaving them six points from safety.
That isn't a massive amount of ground to make up, but for a team yet to win at all this season in the league, it is a huge hurdle.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Newcastle 5/4 | Draw 12/5 | Burnley 21/10
Burnley are just three points above their hosts heading into this game, but there is more of a feel-good factor around the Clarets as they have lost just one of their last eight league games - that defeat coming away at Manchester City.
Sean Dyche's side have again proved to be resolute, and impressed when holding Wolves to a draw in midweek, but draws aren't doing them any favours.
While they have lost one of eight, they have won just one, too.
So, a game against a fellow struggler must be seen as a very winnable game, and the Clarets have shown they have the firepower to create chances and score goals.
With both sides in need of a win, goals could be on the cards, and so BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals despite it's odds-on price.
At St. James' Park this season, Newcastle have played a real gung-ho style of football that has seen chances at both ends become common place.
They are averaging a steady 1.36 xGF per game in front of their home fans, but are allowing a whopping 2.14 xGA per game - highlighting their defensive deficiencies.
Burnley have had no issues creating on the whole this season, averaging 1.24 xGF per game, but they have been easily exposed on their travels, allowing 2.10 xGA per game away from Turf Moor.
Two vulnerable defences plus two capable attacking units equals goals. It is also worth mentioning that 79% of Newcastle's league games this term have seen BTTS land, with 62% of Burnley's seeing both sides hit the net.
There isn't a great deal to separate these two sides in general, especially when we factor in home-field advantage, so chancing the DRAW is our second selection.
Newcastle and Burnley have both so far drawn half of their 14 league matches, but when we look closer at games against the current bottom six we start to see a trend.
The Magpies have drawn with ALL of the bottom six teams they have played (v SOU, v LEE, @ WAT, v NOR), as have the Clarets (v LEE, v NOR, @ SOU).
This could just be coincidence, and likely is as draws are very random, but it could tell us that all of the teams near the foot of the table are very evenly matched this season, so chancing another draw between such sides appeals as the biggest price in the W-D-L market.
Newcastle v Burnley best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Both Teams to Score at 4/5 (William Hill)
- 1pt the Draw at 12/5 (General)
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1030 GMT (02/12/21)
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