It’s been another outrageous summer window at the top of English football defined by the Premier League’s overwhelming domination of the European market.
Over a billion pounds has already been spent and a lot of it on the best up-and-comers in Europe: Hugo Ekitike, Rayan Cherki, Florian Wirtz, Martin Zubimendi, the list goes on.
Everyone wants to be in the Premier League these days.
But the secondary lesson of the summer is far more significant. The Premier League moves in cycles, not so much exact repetitions as helixes, as variations on a theme, and in the 21st century the spiralling tends towards reinforcing the status of those lucky few who encased themselves in the elite before financial regulations shut the door behind them.
As recently as May it looked as though the fifth Champions League spot had created the possibility of a more even Premier League. Aston Villa and Newcastle were ready to step up, Tottenham and Manchester United were down, and the notion of a ‘Big Six’ was history.
To an extent that still holds in August, even if Man Utd’s remarkable ability to lure away players destined for St James Park, using historic reputation alone, tells us something of the long roots of privilege.
But any thoughts Villa or Newcastle could begin to reel in those above them have been laughed off. This is the summer in which the big clubs really flexed their muscle – and reinstated an enormous gap between the haves and have nots.
Every single middle-class club has suffered.
Villa have no PSR headroom and thus are forced to stand still. Newcastle have been pipped to no fewer than eight signings, by Man Utd for Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Sesko but also by Chelsea (Joao Pedro, Liam Delap) and Tottenham (Mohammed Kudus).
Nottingham Forest have lost Anthony Elanga and shocked the world by managing to keep Morgan Gibbs-White when Spurs were ready to pounce. Bournemouth have had almost their entire defence ripped out, losing Dean Huijsen, Milos Kerkez and Illia Zabarnyi.
Brighton have sold Pedro. Crystal Palace could soon lose Eberechi Eze. Brentford have lost Thomas Frank, Mbeumo, and Christian Noorgaad, with Yoan Wissa soon to follow.
Never has the gap to Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City – three enormous spenders this summer – looked so big, and considering Chelsea refuse to slow down there is a very real possibility we are about to witness the return to the 2000s and its Big Four, when four English super-clubs sewed up the Champions League spots year in year out.
The potential for a fifth Champions League spot, plus Villa and Forest (or Palace) standing a decent chance of back door entry to the UCL via the Europa League, thankfully adds more upward mobility than we saw in the first decade of the century, but it’s hardly an optimistic state of play so soon after a brilliantly competitive 2024/25.
What’s happening is the inevitable consequence of PSR and Uefa’s Fair Play Regulations, which unhelpfully ask teams to jump through slightly different hoops, focusing more on wages as a percentage of turnover.
Ever since these rules and regulations first came in opponents have warned it will simply entrench already existing power imbalance. This summer has been one of the starkest examples yet, the consolidation at the top bringing to mind what happened in the summer of 2016 after Leicester won the title.
It was a watershed moment for the big clubs who, drifting for years, resolved never to let something like that happen again. They spent big, brought in the best coaches in Europe (Antonio Conte, Pep Guardiola), and killed the revolution dead.
What’s happening in 2025/26 is a little less dramatic, but barely any less depressing.
The only potential disruption to this future is the charges hovering over Man City, which they strenuously deny. Should they be found guilty there would likely be another Champions League spot up for grabs, at least temporarily, while the likes of Chelsea might be left wondering about their own unique methods under BlueCo.
But if Man City are cleared of charges, then PSR might just fall apart completely, paving the way for Villa’s and Newcastle’s owners in particular to pour money into the game.
But that isn’t exactly a healthy situation either, and for now it remains a fantasy. Certainly for the time being, 2025/26 will be defined by a return to the old ways - and by an already closed shop nailing the doors shut.
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