Football betting tips: Nations League
17:00 - Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein
1pt Liechtenstein Exactly 0 Corners at 10/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
19:45 - Germany vs Serbia
3pts Germany 18+ total shots at 5/6 (Betway)
1pt Germany 20+ total shots at 13/8 (Betway)
0.5pt Germany 24+ total shots at 9/2 (Betway)
Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein
- Kick-off: Thursday, 17:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
The game everyone will be watching.
A huge Nations League D clash from Baku where a decent Azerbaijan side host the second lowest-ranked UEFA. Liechtenstein sit 206th in FIFA's rankings, just five spots ahead of last-placed San Marino (211th), which tells us all we need to know about their quality.
You have to go back to 2020 for the last time they won a game as a national team, with defeats to nil their usual go-to. While the rankings have them above San Marino, in the last edition of Nations League D, Liechtenstein were beaten twice by San Marino who ended up getting promoted, again a decent marker for where they are as a side.
As for Azerbaijan, they had a torrid time in League C last time around, but were were semi-competitive without ever threatening to qualify for the World Cup, especially at home where they drew with Ukraine and found the net against France.
They are the highest ranked side across the two League D pools, sitting 126th in FIFA's rankings, and over the course of the round-robin with Liechtenstein and Lithuania, who make up the three-team group, should finish top and secure promotion back to League C.
So, there are nearly 100 teams ranked between the two sides while Azerbaijan also have a big home-field advantage due to the travel opposition sides must endure, which explains their 1/7 price to win the game.
But, one bet I always like when we have such a mis-match, even if it is bad team versus terrible team, is taking on the minnows corner line, and at 10/1 we can back LIECHTENSTEIN EXACTLY 0 CORNERS which looks a huge price, even if we are relying on a so-so Azerbaijani team.
This bet landed in Liechtenstein's Nations League opener at home to 149th ranked Lithuania, and has in fact copped in five of their last nine competitive internationals.
Even in the last Nations League tournament they won an average of just 2.25 corners per game against sides ranked much higher than Lithuania (149) and Azerbaijan (126), with San Marino (211th) and Gibraltar (202nd) far inferior to those two.
Although Azerbaijan could only draw 1-1 at Lithuania in their opener, they held their opponents to zero corners despite being away from home, so while corners betting is volatile and one can be won in any manner of ways, at the prices on offer here I think it's absolutely worth a swing that Azerbaijan, at home, can be so dominant that Liechtenstein rarely cross the half-way line.
Germany vs Serbia
- Kick-off: Thursday, 19:45 BST
- TV: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
Jurgen Klopp's start to his Germany tenure could have gone better. A draw in the Netherlands was a decent enough result, but to follow that up with a home loss to Greece perhaps highlights the size of the job he has on his hands.
They host a Serbia side who have been on the decline for a few years, and have been beaten in both of their opening Nations League games. The results, a pair of 2-1 home losses, were one thing, the performances were another, especially defensively.
Greece racked up 2.51 xG in Serbia, and a few days later the Dutch hit 2.74 xG, with both sides firing off 25 shots on the road. The Serbs are now the travellers and if their defence continues to be as leaky, they could be on the end of a hiding in Germany against a side desperate to get a win on the board.
GERMANY 18+ TOTAL SHOTS is a cracking bet here at 5/6, and I think the Germany shot ladder is worth climbing, with 20+ SHOTS at 13/8, 24+ SHOTS at 9/2.
Klopp's men fired 16 last time out against a Greece side who are better than Serbia, and the visitors will undoubtedly sit in and try to counter here which should invite plenty of efforts from the hosts.
Odds correct at 10:00 BST (28/09/26)
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