Napoli trail 1-0 on aggregate as they welcome AC Milan for their quarter final second leg. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Victor Osimhen to score anytime in 90 minutes at 7/5 (bet365)
1pt Rafael Leao to be carded in 90 minutes at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
Yes, Napoli are having a little wobble - losing two and winning just one of their last four, failing to score in three of those - but in my mind the catalyst for the bad run of form has been the absence of star striker VICTOR OSIMHEN.
He has been injured since the last international break, but returned at the weekend for a late cameo in preparation for this game, and at a price of 7/5 TO SCORE ANYTIME, he has to be backed.
The Nigerian is the focal point of this Napoli attack, and it simply doesn't function properly when he is out, so I expect his return to bring an immediate upturn in his teams performance, which should lead to a goal for himself.
In 14 matches across Serie A and Champions League between the restart and the last international break, Osimhen scored 15 times, netting in 10 of those 14 (71%), averaging a whopping 0.92 xG per 95 minutes.
With Napoli to be in the ascendency and on the front foot given the context of the tie, their attacking firepower should come to the fore. After all, they generated 1.59 xGF in the first leg without their star man, so at home in front of a packed crowd, I Ciucciarelli should create plenty of opportunities.
Napoli v AC Milan (agg: 0-1)
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV Channel: BT Sport 2
Home 7/10 | Draw 14/5 | Away 19/5
A second bet I like the look of in this contest is for RAFAEL LEAO TO BE CARDED, which is priced at 10/3.
Leao, known for his attacking abilities, is a consistent player when it comes to collecting cards. Domestically, he has 10 goals and six assists to his name in 28 appearances this season, but has also been booked seven times and sent-off once.
He has that petulant gene in him that can see him receive a card for arguing, pushing and shoving or even diving, but also that cynical aspect to his game where he will happily pull someone's shirt back or trip them stop a counter attack.
With strict official Szymon Marciniak (4.76 cards per game this season) overseeing proceedings, and the high stakes nature of this game, I can see plenty of cards being brandished on the night, so taking a chance on Leao getting in on the action appeals.
Napoli v AC Milan best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Victor Osimhen to score anytime in 90 minutes at 7/5 (bet365)
- 1pt Rafael Leao to be carded in 90 minutes at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Napoli 2-0 AC Milan (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1520 BST (17/04/23)
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