Football betting tips: Nations League
19:45 - Northern Ireland vs Georgia
2pts Ciaran Brown 1+ total shot at 6/4 (BOYLESports)
0.5pt Ruairi McConville to score anytime at 16/1 (Betfred, Sky Bet)
0.5pt Ciaran Brown to score anytime at 18/1 (Betfred)
19:45 - France vs Belgium
1pt Under 2.5 goals at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
19:45 - Romania vs Sweden
1.5pts Viktor Gyokeres to score anytime at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Gyokeres 2+ goals at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
Northern Ireland vs Georgia
- Kick-off: Monday, 19:45 BST
- TV: BBC Three
- Live odds, form and stats
It's been a dream first half of the Nations League campaign for Northern Ireland. Three games in and they are top of Group 2, winning two of an unbeaten three and yet to concede a goal. One more win all-but-guarantees a top-two finish and a chance of promotion to League A.
The data backs up the results too, with their defensive metrics particularly impressive. Across three games, two away from home, Michael O'Neill's side have allowed just 2.43 non-penalty expected goals (NPxG), an average of 0.81 per game.
Georgia sit bottom of the group, still searching for a first win and a first goal, so the home win was tempting, but while they have been solid at the back, there's been a pragmatic approach which has led to underwhelming attacking numbers (3.48 xGF - 1.16 per game).
For those that want to get the hosts onside, backing them in the Draw no Bet market at a general 7/10 would be the way to go given the fine margin nature of O'Neill's side.
Instead, we'll turn our attentions to what looks to be a set-piece mismatch in the hosts' favour. Northern Ireland have scored three times from set-pieces, with over half of their total xG coming from dead-ball situations (1.83).
As for Georgia, they conceded from a long throw against Northern Ireland in their opener, and shipped a huge 1.00 xG from set-pieces against Hungary last time out, with the Hungarian centre-backs combining for four shots.
Step forward, CIARON BROWN. Believe it or not, we can back Brown, who scored a brace against Ukraine, to have 1+ TOTAL SHOT at a mammoth 6/4 and that makes great appeal. With no Dan Ballard, he is the primary threat from dead-balls.
He had two shots last time out, scoring with both, with his tally for the season already at three which is excellent for a defender, matching his total from last season. At a whopping 18/1, he will be chanced TO SCORE ANYTIME as well.
We'll also cover the other big Northern Irish set-piece threat, just in case, by taking RUAIRI MCCONVILLE TO SCORE ANYTIME at 16/1. He had a shot last time out against Ukraine, alongside averaging 0.80 shots per 90 at Norwich - already finding the net once for the Canaries.
France vs Belgium
- Kick-off: Monday, 19:45 BST
- TV: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
France continued their clunky start under Zinedine Zidane by drawing 1-1 at home to Italy on Friday and suffering a late red card.
It meant a side who turned heads with their dazzling performances at this summer's World Cup have scored just three times in their new manager's opening three games, following on from 1-0 wins away to Turkey and Belgium.
Michael Olise popped up in the 88th minute to decide a keenly-fought reverse fixture and with both teams missing plenty of their usual attacking threats - Kylian Mbappe for the hosts and Jeremy Doku for the visitors to name just a couple - UNDER 2.5 GOALS is worth backing at 7/4.
Two of Belgium's three fixtures have gone unders, with a 2-0 win in Italy and 3-0 victory over Turkey in their other games so far.
Had they not lost both Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans to suspension they would make appeal at 21/4 in the draw no bet market, a selection that gave us a good run for our money in France's last fixture as Italy (9/2) pushed them all the way.
Romania vs Sweden
- Kick-off: Monday, 19:45 BST
- TV: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
VIKTOR GYOKERES has netted in all three Nations League games and is 5/4 TO SCORE ANYTIME when Sweden travel to Romania.
He will fancy his chances against a defence which has conceded 12 times in three defeats: 2-1 to Sweden in the opener, 4-2 at home to Bosnia a week ago and 6-0 in Poland on Friday after an early red card.
Graham Potter is getting plenty from his forwards, with Gyokeres and Alexander Isak scoring 12 goals between them in Sweden's past 11 games, including 10 in seven outside the World Cup.
The Arsenal striker has been particularly prolific when Isak is absent, as he is here, scoring six in his last four games without his usual strike partner.
Given his form and Romania's defensive problems, GYOKERES 2+ GOALS at 7/1 is worth a small bet. For those looking to go bigger, he is 40/1 to score a hat-trick - something Robert Lewandowski managed against the same opponents on Friday.
While Gyokeres is getting on the end of tons of chances, he produced his most threatening performance of the international break in Friday's draw with Bosnia, having an early goal ruled out by VAR for a handball in the build-up alongside posting three further attempts.
Odd correct at 10:00 BST (05/10/26)
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