Burnley v Wolves free betting tips: Monday Night Football best bets and preview | Premier League
Before the headline fixture of the night in west London, in-form Burnley host a Wolves side looking for back-to-back wins. Joe Townsend looks at the betting.
Football betting tips: Monday Night Football
1pt Burnley to win and under 3.5 goals at 3/1
0.5pts e.w James Tarkowski to score first at 40/1 (e.w. terms - first 99 places at 1/3 odds)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Burnley v Wolves
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 5/2 | Draw 21/10 | Away 6/5
Burnley's season is following a very familiar pattern.
Ahead of the weekend they were 17th in the Premier League table, and while 10 points from their opening dozen games is nothing to shout about, nine points from their last six is; the only defeat in that time was a now annual 5-0 shellacking by Manchester City at the Etihad.
Even prior to this current run of good form, there will have been few alarm bells ringing for Sean Dyche given the consistency with which the Clarets have started seasons slowly over the past few years. They'll certainly go into Monday night's game full of confidence.
Wolves have been odd this term, but that is perhaps to be expected given the gradual rebuilding job Nuno Espirito Santo is undertaking having lost several key players both during and since the summer. After three-and-a-half years of three at the back, he even gave 4-4-2 a go. It was short-lived.
His favoured 3-5-2/3-4-3 delivered a much-needed come-from-behind win over Chelsea in midweek, courtesy of a 95th-minute Pedro Neto strike. The Old Gold were seconds from another under 2.5 goals game; with a three-man defence, they are 21 from 25.
I don't want to get too stat heavy so I'll keep this next one brief - the old Wolves loved getting to half-time 0-0. That has now happened in successive games as they look to return to basics. Readers of our weekly Premier League: Punting Pointers will know both these plays are long-time favourites of Sporting Life tipsters.
Six of Burnley's past nine fixtures have had one goal or fewer, with a 1-1 against Everton and heavy defeats by Chelsea and Man City make up the list.
Add into the mix that there haven't been more than two goals in any of their four meetings since Wolves won promotion from the Sky Bet Championship in 2018 and unders is the play in this contest.
It's no surprise to see under 2.5 goals trading at 8/15, but the 7/4 with 888Sport and Unibet on under 1.5 goals is a price I like.
Wolves' unpredictability, being slap bang in midtable sums up their campaign, has me slightly edgy when looking towards the outright betting, but the value in backing Burnley makes it worth taking on that little extra risk. There is simply no way that Dyche's team should be 5/2 across the board.
I would be surprised if a Burnley win was anything other than 1-0 or 2-0, and Burnley/under 2.5 offers a juicy 5/1, but the general 3/1 on offer by tagging on an extra goal is worth it to account for the slight unknown when it comes to the visitors.
One final play to small stakes that is a continuation from midweek is to oppose Wolves at set-plays.
I tipped up 25/1 Kurt Zouma to break the deadlock for Chelsea on Tuesday, only for him to thunder a header off the underside of the bar. Absolute killer. But the thinking was right - Wolves (6) trail only Leeds and Leicester for set-piece goals conceded this term.
Burnley lack a prolific defender in the mould of Zouma, but James Tarkowski has looked a threat all season. The England international has had at least one effort on goal in seven of his 10 league appearances.
His 40/1 each-way price to score first with Sky Bet is superb.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Burnley v Wolves: Monday Night Football best bets
Odds correct at 1625 GMT (18/12/20)
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