James' European Edge 26/27 record: Staked 26.0pts | Returned 32.95pts | P/L +6.95pts | ROI 27%
Football betting tips: Milan Derby
1pt Inter to win at evens (General)
0.5pt Marcus Thuram to score anytime at 6/4 (Skybet)
INTER are deservedly clear favourites as they head into the derby against arch-rivals Milan on Saturday.
The Nerazzurri are evens (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes) TO WIN in the live televised clash even though they are the nominal visitors. Milan – who will enjoy the bulk of the support inside the San Siro – are 13/5 underdogs (Paddy Power) to collect all three points.
Some may think Inter are too short. We don’t. The first and arguably strongest factor in the visitors’ favour is their unarguable superiority over their city rivals this season.
We’re just nine rounds into Serie A 2026-27, yet already Inter have build up a seven-point lead over Milan. Inter also boast a much better goal difference (+15 vs +7), having scored more goals (25 vs 18) while conceding fewer (10 vs 11).
It is almost certain that Inter will be the fresher of the two sides, too. Several of their regular starters – defender Manuel Akanji, plus midfielders Hakan Calhanoglu and Nicolo Barella, for example – dropped to the bench for their 2-0 win at Venezia in Serie A’s midweek round of fixtures on Wednesday. All three key men are expected to return to the starting line-up for this occasion.
Blighted by injuries, Milan were unable to rotate to the same degree when they lost 4-2 at home to Bologna on the same evening. Wing-back Diego Moreira and midfielder Adrien Rabiot were among half-a-dozen Milan players that sat out the game as the Rossoneri produced a disappointing performance which ended with them suffering their second defeat in three games in all competitions. Milan manager Ruben Amorim has hinted that he may rush some of his players back into action this weekend before they are fully ready, indicating the pressure Milan are under as they prepare to take on Serie A’s top team.
There are two positives for Milan. The first is that Inter’s star striker Lautaro Martinez is out. The Argentina international has missed the last four games with a thigh injury and remains sidelined.
The second is their excellent recent head-to-head record. Milan are unbeaten in their last seven encounters (W5-D2-L0) against Inter, which may provide them with some belief that they can avoid defeat.
If anything, however, Milan’s recent dominance in head-to-head meetings suggests that this may be Inter’s time to win. Taking all factors into account, Inter are the fresher, stronger side, and their form figures are better. I expect them to collect all three points.
For those seeking a player props selection, MARCUS THURAM deserves attention. Both with and without Martinez alongside him, the France international striker has played a central role for Inter this season: he has made a key Serie A contribution every 78 minutes, with five goals and two assists in 545 minutes on the pitch.
Thuram is 6/4 in the ANYTIME GOALSCORER market (Skybet) and 13/8 (Skybet) in the 2+ shots on target market. Both selections are worth considering on a player that enjoys the limelight, and is likely to take it here.
Odds correct at 11:00 GMT (30/10/26)
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