Football betting tips: Europa League
1pt A red card in the match at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Both teams to have a red card at 50/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Philip Billing to be carded at 9/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Elliot Anderson to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Billing and Anderson to be carded at 12/1 (bet365)
*All bets settled in 90 mins
Vítor Pereira’s mantra at Wolves was points first, pints second and if he manages to turn this tie around, I don’t think he’ll have to buy many in Nottingham in the coming days.
His side trail 1-0 on aggregate to Midtjylland but the statistics suggest Nottingham Forest were unlucky not to get a result at the City Ground.
They enjoyed the lion's share of possession (57.5%), outshot their opponents 22-6 and won the expected goals battle 1.72-0.69.
But there’s only one stat which matters and Cho Gue-Sung’s goal 10 minutes from time gives the Danish side a slender advantage heading into the second leg on their own patch.
Making the quarter-finals will be no mean feat for Forest, the visitors are as big as 7/4 to qualify and generally 11/10 to win the game in 90 minutes.
I am steering well clear of the 1x2 though given Pereira's side's recent form.
The 3-0 win at Fenerbahce in this competition is his only victory to date, all-told the latest Forest manager has overseen seven games and lost four (W1 D2 L4).
The hosts are no push overs either. On their own patch this season Midtjylland have only lost once (W15 D6 L1) and boast a 100% record at home in this competition.
I think cards are the best way in here considering the occasion, the dynamic of the tie and the referee appointment.
Felix Zwayer has the whistle and he’s averaged 4.96 cards a game in this competition. That’s 28 appearances, 129 yellows and 10 red cards.
Combining his Europa League and Champions League numbers and that average jumps to 5.21 cards per game, while he's dished out red cards in 31% of his 70 appearances.
Across six European appearances this season, he’s sent four players off and in Zwayer's last 10 Europa League knockout appearances, he's dished out 56 yellows and four reds cards.
Naturally, the RED CARD IN THE MATCH is worth a punt at 4/1, as is BOTH TEAMS TO HAVE A RED CARD at 50/1.
Neither side are notorious in the red card department but given the occasion and the referee, I wouldn’t rule it out.
I'll also be dipping into the player card market where PHILIP BILLING is worth a poke TO BE CARDED at 9/4.
He has three to his name in eight European appearances this season and a career cards per 90 average of 0.31.
ELLIOT ANDERSON is also worth a punt TO BE CARDED at 15/4.
He’s picked up 16 cards in the Premier League since the beginning of last season, which includes two in his last three appearances, and has two yellows and a red in this competition.
It’s also a bonus that these two should be operating in close quarters on Thursday so I’ll have a nibble on the 12/1 about the CARD DOUBLE.
Odds correct at 17:00 GMT (17/03/26)
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