Football betting tips: Weekend
Saturday 15:00 - Premier League: Brighton vs Burnley
1.5pts Both teams to score at 4/5 (General)
Saturday 15:00 - Premier League: Wolves vs West Ham
1.5pts Matheus Fernandes 2+ fouls won at 10/11 (bet365)
0.5pt Fernandes 3+ fouls won at 3/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - National North/South: Chester vs Worksop
1.5pts 2+ Chester goals at 3/4 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - National South: Slough vs Eastbourne
1.5pts 2+ Slough goals at 6/5 (bet365)
Sunday 15:00 - Championship: Derby vs Wrexham
1pt Oliver Rathbone to score anytime at 7/1 (bet365)
Sunday 15:00 - Championship: Millwall vs Swansea
1pt Billy Mitchell to be booked at 9/2 (bet365)
This weekend's column was TOUGH. As always, I made a list of the fixtures to target and thought this was a juicy looking slate. However, some of the prices on offer haven’t been to my liking and things have affected the rare angles I do like.
25-goal man Rico Rees has departed Merthyr for Forest Green, crossing out the standard Merthyr 2+ goals angle I was going to put forward. The division's second top scorer Pemi Aderoju has been recalled by Peterborough from Eastbourne, so I’m coy on pro Borough angles. Finally Boreham against York – the game of the weekend – has been postponed.
Still, enough moaning, I have found a few things before I hand the reins back to the trusted hands of Jimmy The Punt.
Brighton vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
I hate backing a bet involving my beloved Brighton but we are BAD. It's now six without a win after limping to a 2-2 draw against West Ham, a game in which defensive weakness was exploited.
I was not yet in the ground when The Hammers went 1-0 up. Too busy boozing in London, I forgot it was a 19:30 kick-off. Still, the defending was shambolic and epitomised the defensive struggles we have seen so often under Fabian Hurzeler.
While last year, Bart Verbruggen was a big issue, he has been a shining light between the sticks for The Seagulls this season. The 23-year-old preserved a clean sheet in a man-of-the-match performance against Sunderland, while saving a penalty against Brentford and making a string of strong saves against West Ham; it's fair to say Albion would be a lot worse off without the Dutchman.
Still, games at the AMEX are seeing goals galore. Seven of nine home games have seen BOTH TEAMS SCORE, the most in the division. The worrying statistic is that the only two teams not to score at Brighton are the other two newly-promoted teams (Sunderland and Leeds) but the Black Cats were unlucky not to score and Leeds were awful.
Burnley have struggled on their return to the Premier League and are now six points from safety. Scott Parker’s side have taken just four points from nine on the road, with last-minute goals crucial in both the win at Wolves and Bournemouth.
Interestingly, Burnley also top the away standings for BTTS, with it clicking in eight of nine – the exception the opening day 3-0 defeat at Spurs. They scored twice at Old Trafford and once at Aston Villa, Manchester City, Newcastle and Bournemouth, so will certainly fancy their chances against a side with just two clean sheets all season.
Wolves vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Again, pre-match beer, my poor eyesight and the London Stadium away end being a mile away from the pitch means I am not the best judge when it came to the last game. However, what I did notice was how good MATHEUS FERNANDES was and how much he loves winning FOULS.
The midfielder was involved all over the pitch, winning three fouls. The 21-year-old has now won at least two in six of his last seven games. Backing 2+ FOULS WON and 3+ also appeals due to the direct opponents, with central midfielders against Wolves winning lots of fouls.
Rob Edwards is likely to again line up with a midfield three as Joao Gomes, Andre, Matheus Mane and Jhon Arias - all combative midfielders - compete for the slots.
Chester vs Worksop
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
After promotion last season, it has been a steady first half of the season in National North for Worksop who are four points clear of safety. The Tigers' four-game unbeaten run was ended by a 3-1 defeat at Buxton and they face another tough trip to CHESTER. Worksop have now conceded at least 2+ GOALS in eight of 12 away games.
Chester have had an inconsistent season but head into this game buoyed by a comfortable 2-0 win in the Cheshire derby with Macclesfield. The Seals have the play-offs in their sights and sit just three points off. Their home form was a key reason for their play-off finish last term and while they have lost just twice in front of their own fans, half of the games have ended in draws.
Still, they look strong going forward, scoring 34 in 23, so will look to continue their prolific streak against Worksop.
Slough vs Eastbourne
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Eastbourne under Tommy Widdrington continue to breed chaos. Under his guise, they have scored 26 and conceded 33 in 14 games.
While their goalscoring antics may be affected after 20-goal striker Peme Aderoju was recalled by Peterborough, I will still look to target them defensively. In the 14 games under Widdrington, they have conceded 2+ GOALS in 11, including in nine of the last 10.
In the process of writing this article, popular player-manager Scott Davies signed a new contract with SLOUGH – news that will be sure to gee up the Arbour Park crowd. The Rebels are 19th in the league, a few places above their visitors, an impressive feat when you compare the spending power of both.
Davies is an attacking-oriented coach, with his side scoring 32 and conceding 42 in 23 games. In their 12 home games, they have scored 21 goals, with seven of these seeing 2+ home goals click.
Derby vs Wrexham
- Kick-off: Sunday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
The standard of football I watched over the Christmas period was tepid and slow, with teams feeling the effects of a hectic schedule. Blackburn in particular were diabolical in the early kick-off, with Wrexham schooling them.
What I did notice was how advanced OLLIE RATHBONE was. Playing just off the striker, the midfielder found himself in great positions, registering two shots and scoring with a fine finish past Aynsley Pears in the Rovers goal.
The 29-year-old scored in his 10-minute cameo against Watford in his first Championship minutes of the season, while scoring off the bench a few games later against Preston. It means he now has three goals in 128 minutes of league football, so looks a chunky price TO SCORE ANYTIME playing off the striker again.
Millwall vs Swansea
- Kick-off: Sunday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Ryan Leonard and Alfie Doughty were preferred in the Millwall midfield against Southampton, but BILLY MITCHELL should be restored on Sunday. The tenacious midfielder came on in the 75th minute and was BOOKED late on, taking his tally for the season to four; impressive considering he has only made nine starts
Malick Yalcouye was restored to the Swansea midfield after no starts and being left in the cold since his red card against QPR in October. The Malian made the most of his opportunity, claiming man of the match in a stellar performance. What stood out was his fouls won, winning five in 71 minutes, with his average for the season just shy of three.
Yalcouye is a foul-winning machine, winning 3.21 per 90 last season in Austria and over five per 90 when in Sweden. Partnered with Goncalo Franco, who wins just shy of two fouls per 90.
Both West Brom midfielders were booked in Swansea's last game, so taking MITCHELL TO BE CARDED certainly appeals.
Odds correct at 16:20 (2/1/26)
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