Football betting tips: National League and FA Trophy
National League - Saturday 3pm
1pt Carlisle to win and BTTS vs Boston at 6/4 (General)
1pt AFC Fylde to win and BTTS vs Eastleigh at 11/5 (William Hill)
1pt Harrogate to win and BTTS vs Altrincham at 9/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
2pts Worthing double chance and Worthing over 0.5 goals vs Scunthorpe at 4/5 (bet365)
1pt Worthing to win and BTTS vs Scunthorpe at 7/2 (William Hill)
1pt Corey Adjetey-Brew to score anytime in Scunthorpe vs Worthing at 11/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Corey Adjetey-Brew to score 2+ goals at 66/1 (bet365)
1pt Boreham Wood to win and BTTS vs Yeovil at 2/1 (bet365)
FA Trophy - Saturday 3pm
1.25pts Kettering or draw vs Braintree at 13/10 (bet365)
0.75pt Kettering to win at 10/3 (bet365)
God what an exciting slate this is (I used more choice words when I texted Jake before sitting down to write this column).
Last week’s column was disappointing – Johl Powell was taken off penalties for Yeovil and Guiseley scored a penalty when Wilson wasn’t on the pitch. Wimborne did give us a couple of chunky winners on Sunday with a routine 2-0 win over Crawley, with the 4/1 win and 11/1 win to nil both copping.
This week, the focus is on plenty of favourites to win alongside both teams scoring, with the National League ripe for it, while an underdog in the FA Trophy has caught the eye.
Carlisle vs Boston
Originally the National League title favourites when the markets were opened back in June, a slow start to the season under new gaffer Rob Elliot has meant CARLISLE are playing catch-up. While 18 points looks improbable to make up - especially chasing Boreham Wood - do not be surprised to see the Cumbrians finishing the season in second place.
Elliot's side are unbeaten in eight in all competitions, a run that includes dumping runaway League Two leaders Salford out of the FA Cup, beating Harrogate 3-0 despite having nine men and defeating a strong AFC Fylde side 2-0 away from home. He has one of the league’s most potent attacks, scoring 32 in 16, but they have conceded 23 goals, with BTTS landing in six of eight at Brunton Park.
Boston are the visitors to Cumbria on Saturday, sat just three points above the relegation zone. The Pilgrims will be looking over their shoulder at a resurgent Hartlepool so will be keen to get a positive result on Saturday but that will be a tough ask against a top side.
Paul Hurst’s side have scored in 13 of 16 league games, with BTTS landing in five of seven on the road.
Selection: Carlisle to win and BTTS at 6/4
Eastleigh vs AFC Fylde
I hope I don’t read this massively wrong and my admiration for Craig Mahon and FYLDE's style of play isn’t clouding my judgement. The Coasters sit fourth in the league after back-to-back 3-1 wins over Hartlepool and Hornchurch, before dismantling second place Harrogate 4-1 on the road in the FA Cup.
Mahon’s side have the third best away record in the league, taking 15 points from eight, only losing to Woking (3-2 with two stoppage time goals for Woking), Boreham Wood & Southend. BTTS has landed in six of eight on the road, only failing in the 4-0 defeat at Boreham Wood and 1-0 win at Boston United.
Eastleigh are a side I had penned in for relegation when the season started, but the Spitfires are sitting relatively comfortabley in 17th – mainly owing to their home form. So why on earth am I backing against them at home?
The simple answer is that I just don’t rate Matt Gray’s side that highly and I think they will start to regress. Commanding defender Temi Eweka was stretchered off against Barrow and looks set for a lengthy spell on the sideline, while there is an over-reliance on talisman Aaron Blair upfront who has eight of their 19 goals.
Josh Lundstram and Eweka have five goals between them but will miss out through injuries, so outside of Blair there is not much firepower. Still, BTTS has landed in seven of eight at home, so the Spitfires should at least get on the scoresheet.
Selection: AFC Fylde to win and BTTS at 11/5
Harrogate vs Altrincham
HARROGATE look strong after relegation from League Two, sitting second in the division after scoring 34 in 16. Only runaway leaders Boreham Wood have taken more home points (22) and scored more home goals (25) than the Sulphurites 19 and 23 respectively, with BTTS landing in seven of eight - a tepid Hornchurch the only side not to score at Wetherby Road.
AFC Fylde are the only club to stop Simon Weaver’s side from scoring at least two home goals in the league this season, so potent is their attack.
Altrincham are far exceeding expectations by sitting in the final playoff spot. Neil Gibson has worked wonders at The Robins who have entertained – their games average exactly three goals. Of their 16 games this campaign, BTTS has clicked in 11, so they will fancy their chances of bagging a goal against a Harrogate defence that has conceded 23.
Selection: Harrogate to win and BTTS at 9/4
Scunthorpe vs Worthing
Get some original thoughts I know. WORTHING this. Worthing that. I am sure you are all bored of my Worthing angles and I can only apologise. The Rebels sit sixth in the league after a shock 3-0 loss to Sutton arrested their ten-game league unbeaten run. I wasn’t at the game (thankfully) but it seems the pressure got to Adam Hinshelwood & Jon Meeney in a game that carried a lot of off-the-pitch baggage.
One noticeable aspect of this was Hinsh oddly switching to a back four - something he rectified once his side were already three goals down. A manager of his ilk and nous will be sure not to make the same mistake again, so a shift back to a ‘back five’ is likely, which is a good sign for those looking to side with the Rebels.
Before the defeat to Sutton, Worthing had lost just three times all season, all coming by just one goal, losing to runaway leaders Boreham Wood, Forest Green in a game where Worthing were much the better side, and Tamworth where Worthing conceded two goals in stoppage time when they had just eight men on the pitch.
They will be sure to dust themselves off and go again in Lincolnshire. BTTS has landed in all seven of Worthing's away league games and their only away defeat was that chaotic loss to Tamworth, so DOUBLE CHANCE certainly appeals.
Scunthorpe are in a spot of bother. They perhaps over-achieved by finishing fifth on their return to the National League, thus altering expectations heading into this season, despite an underwhelming summer that saw them lose key man Callum Roberts.
The Iron sit second bottom of the division, seven points from safety having lost five in a row and seven of their last eight in the league. Scunthorpe also have no manager in place (at the time of writing) after dismissing Andy Butler, with an approach for Chester’s Phil Parkinson knocked back. Still, this Worthing side’s expansive still of play will always give you a chance and with BTTS landing in five of six home games, expect the BTTS trend to continue.
If Worthing revert back to the ‘back 5’ COREY ADJETEY-BREW's GOALSCORER prices certainly appeal. I put back five in inverted commas because it’s a very fluid formation that sees Charlie Waller shift to left back in possession but left centre back out of possession.
This allows Adjetey-Brew to bomb on and get in good goalscoring positions, with him often the most advanced of the Worthing front line. The teenage sensation has five goals to his name and has four from his last four, including a BRACE against Solihull Moors. His attacking prowess was limited as part of the back four against Sutton, but he should be back in attacking positions once more on Saturday.
Selection: Worthing double chance and Worthing to over 0.5 goals at 4/5
Selection: Worthing to win and BTTS at 7/2
Selection: Adjetey-Brew to score anytime at 11/2
Selection: Adjetey-Brew to 2+ goals at 66/1
Yeovil vs Boreham Wood
It doesn’t take me to tell you that BOREHAM WOOD are good. 14 wins and two draws puts them 12 points clear of the chasing pack and Luke Garrard will be looking to maintain his sides' unbeaten start to the league after a 3-0 loss to Wigan in the FA Cup. Their attacking style of play (44 scored) always gives the opposition chances at the other end, with BTTS landing in 12 of 16.
Yeovil look to be the Wood’s next victims. And that is no slight on Yeovil who I really rate. The Glovers sit fifth in the league and only Southend and Boreham Wood have scored more goals than them.
They have also scored in every game bar 2-0 loss at Halifax, where they were down to ten men after 69 minutes, while also scoring three goals at League Two Chesterfield in the cup. This should be a belting game, and I cannot wait to be standing in the rain at Leatherhead checking the score on my phone.
Selection: Boreham Wood to win and BTTS at 2/1
FA Trophy
Braintree vs Kettering
I was going to leave it as just a National League column but KETTERING's price at Braintree was too good to ignore.
The Iron look a shambles and appear to be on a downwards spiral after relegation from the National League. I was surprised that they had won five games so far this season as I thought it was less but looking at their wins, three have come against the bottom four, while the other two were shocks against Maidstone and Dagenham & Redbridge. With 40 goals conceded in 16, there are some serious weaknesses in this Braintree side that the visitors can exploit.
Kettering sit fourth in the Southern Central and may have to take a back seat in what should be an enthralling title race between Real Bedford and Bromsgrove. The Poppies boast the third best defensive record in the league but also have serious fire power in Ed Panter. It is a squad packed full of talent and experience and possesses all the necessary tools to hurt a vulnerable Braintree side.
Selection: Kettering or draw double chance at 13/10
Selection: Kettering to win at 10/3
Odds correct at 13:00 BST (12/11/26)
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