Mark Stinchcombe steps in for Jake Osgathorpe to provide this weekend's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions.
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday 14:00 - Brighton vs West Ham
1pt Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at evens (General)
Sunday 16:30 - Fulham vs Crystal Palace
1pt Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 (bet365)
Monday 20:00 - Wolves vs Man Utd
1pt Man Utd to win at 4/5 (General)
Brighton vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Sunday 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Is there anything more Brighton than taking an early 2-0 lead only to go 4-2 behind then set up a grandstand finish with a third goal 10 minutes from time only to lose 4-3? They are an overs dream. Nine of their last 12 games have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS and longer-term it’s 22 of their last 29 Premier League matches that have produced winners (76%). It’s now just four clean sheets in their last 26 games and the Aston Villa match in midweek perfectly encapsulates their style.
Brighton are 4/7 to win here but there’s no way I could back that but perhaps it’s understandable with them scoring at least two goals in six of their last seven games and opponents West Ham conceding at least two goals in six of their last eight games. The Hammers have shown some resilience of late however, with just one defeat in five. Four of their last six have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS but with it priced at only 8/13, let’s add BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE as well. Six of Nuno Espirito Santo’s nine games in charge have seen both sides fail to keep a clean sheet.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 West Ham
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Sunday 16:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Five of Crystal Palace’s last six games have finished with UNDER 2.5 GOALS and that looks a good p(A)lace to start.
Oliver Glasner has once again been vocal with their lack of summer business and I wonder if they’re struggling has the hectic schedule unfolds. Remember they’re involved in three fronts right now with the league, Europe and the EFL Cup meaning they will be playing a match every three/four days for the next 10 matches.
It looked like there were signs of it taking its toll in their 1-0 victory at Burnley where they managed just three shots against the side who concede the most in the league. On top of that, there is the continued absence of Ismail Sarr who has eight goals across all competitions this season. Defensively they’re very sound though conceding the joint fourth fewest shots per-game (10.9) leading to the second-best defensive record of just 11 conceded in 14 games.
Up until the madness on Tuesday night in their defeat to Man City, Fulham had only conceded three goals in six home games, and they too are only conceding 10.9 shots per-game. This looks tailor made for unders in a busy period.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 Crystal Palace
Wolves vs Manchester Utd
- Kick-off: Monday 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Over the last 10+ years it would take a brave man to back MANCHESTER UNITED TO WIN at odds-on away from home but this is against a Championship side in all but name who can’t score goals.
Wolves have lost 12 of their 14 games and it’s two defeats to nil out of two for new boss Rob Edwards. What chance have they got when they’ve only scored seven goals and conceded 29.
Man Utd have won six of their last 12 games and that looks to be result of their attack finally pulling their weight. Their averaging the second most shots in the league at 15.3 per-game and in-turn are generating the fourth most expected goals at 1.87 per-game. We’re asking the question can Man Utd outscore Wolves and the data is irrefutable.
Score prediction: Wolves 0-2 Manchester Utd
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 12:30 - Aston Villa vs Arsenal
1pt Mikel Merino anytime scorer at 16/5 (Betway)
Saturday 15:00 - Bournemouth vs Chelsea
1pt Enzo Fernandez anytime scorer at 9/2 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Everton vs N Forest
0.5pt Morgan Gibbs-White anytime scorer at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 15:00 - Man City vs Sunderland
0.5pt Erling Haaland to score 2+ goals at 11/5 (Betfred)
Saturday 15:00 - Newcastle vs Burnley
1pt Dan Burn to be shown a card at 11/2 (BetVictor)
Saturday 15:00 - Tottenham vs Brentford
1pt Richarlison to be shown a card at 9/2 (bet365, Betfred)
0.5pt Richarlison to be shown a card & anytime scorer at 12/1 (bet365)
Saturday 17:30 - Leeds vs Liverpool
1pt Joe Gomez anytime assist at 14/1 (bet365)
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
The games are coming thick and fast, yet despite the injuries, Mikel Arteta is doing a superb job in keeping Arsenal unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League matches, winning eight of those with an impressive six clean sheets in the process.
One man doing a lot of the heavy lifting is makeshift striker MIKEL MERINO. Since the beginning of last season he’s played up front 18 times and scored eight goals – a fantastic return for a midfielder playing out of position.
He looks another big price TO SCORE ANYTIME at 16/5, especially when you consider recognised striker Viktor Gyokeres is 9/4.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal
Bournemouth vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Bournemouth have failed to win any of their last five league matches, losing four of them and conceding 13 goals in the process so it makes sense to want to oppose them. However, Chelsea come here off the back of a poor 3-1 defeat at a Leeds United side who had lost six of their last seven games. So we’ll go for an ANYTIME GOALSCORER at a big price.
Of the two teams combined, only Antoine Semenyo (6) has more goals than Chelsea’s ENZO FERNANDEZ (5), yet it’s 5/2 versus 9/2 and Chelsea are the 6/5 favourites.
With Cole Palmer back in the squad but seemingly not fit enough to start, this is probably our last chance to back Enzo with him still on penalty duties.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Chelsea
Everton vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
MORGAN GIBBS-WHITE has come alive under Sean Dyche. No goals in 10 games before Dyche arrived, he now has four in eight matches since Forest’s latest managerial appointment. It may well be due to being deployed consistently in the number 10 position of a 4-2-3-1 rather than being moved around to the right and up front under the previous managers this season.
With Chris Wood still injured, there’s a chance Gibbs-White will also be on penalties. He scored the opener against Porto from the spot but then missed against Sturm Graz before Elliot Anderson took and scored their most recent penalty against Leeds, albeit after Gibbs-White had been subbed.
Even so, the England man is underperforming his expected goals by -1.72, suggesting more goals are due his way soon.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Forest
Man City vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Despite Sunderland’s excellent start to the season, there are concerns that playing champions Liverpool and Manchester City in the same week in back-to-back away games might prove too much.
They were excellent at Anfield, but even so they allowed 23 shots, 13 inside the box, and despite blocking 11 of them, you wonder how long that can last against free-scoring City.
Sunderland are conceding the third most shots per game this season and are the biggest overachievers defensively when you compare their actual goals conceded (14) versus their xG against (20.29). It’s only a matter of time until they concede a few.
It's probably not the best time to face the league's best striker. Fresh from his 100th Premier League goal on Tuesday at Fulham, where he also hit the woodwork twice, ERLING HAALAND now has 20 goals in 18 starts across league and Europe and is absolutely peppering the opposition with 4.0 shots per-game.
He’s already hit a BRACE five times this season, four in the Premier League, and could do again here.
Score prediction: Man City 3-1 Sunderland
Newcastle vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
DAN BURN is Newcastle’s most carded player this season yet we can get 11/2 on the centre-back being SHOWN A CARD. He’s been carded seven times this season, including a second yellow leading to a red, in just 18 games across the Premier League and Champions League.
It should come as no surprise as he is no stranger to getting stuck in, making 1.8 fouls per game – the joint fourth most fouls in the league. And this looks a decent match-up considering Burnley striker Zian Flemming has been fouled 11 times in seven starts.
Alternative striker Lyle Foster has been fouled eight times in eight starts, then behind them, attacking midfielder Lesely Ugochukwu has been fouled 13 times in his eight starts.
Score prediction: Newcastle 3-0 Burnley
Tottenham vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
The Thomas Frank derby is here! And boy does he come into it under pressure so expect him and his troops to be up for it.
Tottenham are the joint second most carded team in the Premier League with only Bournemouth collecting more, so we have to find a Spurs player to back. And who better TO BE SHOWN A CARD than the player who has collected the most for Spurs this season RICHARLISON. It’s now six cautions in 14 starts this season and he even picked up another one as a late sub at Newcastle in midweek.
Given the tensions and Frank’s desire to get one over on his former side, I once again can’t resist adding a goal to the mix, backing RICHARLISON TO SCORE AND BE CARDED. It’s now 16 goals in his last 23 league starts and we know how fiery he is that this bet can win via an over-exuberant celebration
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-2 Brentford
Leeds vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Liverpool have looked a lot more assured with JOE GOMEZ in at right-back but it’s seemingly going under the radar that he offers a threat going forward too. In his last 15 starts across league and Europe, he’s chipped in with four ASSISTS.
It should come as no surprise either given he’s made 16 key passes in those games – a pass that leads to a shot – 1.07 per game.
He should get chances to get himself on the assist list again here, with Liverpool priced up to score two or more goals at just 4/6. Leeds have conceded at least two goals in seven of their last nine Premier League games.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-2 Liverpool
Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (4/12/25)
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