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Football betting tips: Weekend best bets
Saturday
2.5pts Liverpool Under 0.5 Cards vs Southampton (15:00) at 12/5 (bet365)
2.5pts Lech Poznan to beat Stal Mielec and Under 4.5 Goals (19:15) at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
Sunday
3pts Austria Vienna to beat Austria Klagenfurt and Under 4.5 Goals (16:00) at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 1/9 | Draw 8/1 | Away 16/1
Liverpool enjoyed a smash-and-grab success at PSG in the Champions League on Wednesday night and whilst all eyes will be on the return leg against Les Parisiens in midweek, the Reds should still be well-capable of sweeping no-hopers Southampton aside at Anfield this weekend. Arne Slot’s side are understandable strong favourites to succeed.
There’s little value to be gleaned from the major markets, though LIVERPOOL to pick up UNDER 0.5 CARDS stands-out at 12/5. This wager has won in each of the Reds' last three Premier League games, as well as five of their past 11 going further back. However, the wager really comes alive when looking at Southampton’s opposition.
Southampton’s opponents have received the following card counts of late: 1-0-3-0-0-1-0. Six of those seven sides received a maximum of one booking with four of those teams’ delivering pay-outs for our preferred play. Over the course of the campaign, home sides facing Saints have averaged just 1.29 cards, suggesting the price is too big to ignore.
Lech Poznan vs Stal Mielec
- Kick-off time: 19:15 GMT, Saturday
- Home 1/2 | Draw 29/10 | Away 19/5
Lech Poznan have recovered from a recent blip to win successive Ekstraklasa encounters and again establish themselves as the team to beat in Poland. The league leaders have proven particularly formidable on home soil, picking up maximum points in 10 of their 12 Enea Stadion outings, scoring multiple goals in nine of those 10 triumphs.
A repeat holds plenty of appeal on Saturday night – we can back LECH POZNAN TO WIN AND UNDER 4.5 GOALS at 10/11, a nice price for a side that’s averaging 2.50 goals per-game in front of their own supporters, conceding just nine times. Struggling Stal Mielec arrive following four defeats in six, with the visitors particularly soft on their travels.
Stal Mielec have posted W1-D2-L8 when playing away, failing to keep a clean sheet and notching only nine times. Janusz Niedzwiedz’s troops have already been turned over 2-0 when facing Lech on home soil and the Bialo-niebiescy have come up short in seven of their nine trips to teams inside the top-12, though none of their matches have featured 5+ goals.
Austria Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt
- Kick-off time: 16:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 1/2 | Draw 3/1 | Away 9/2
Austria Vienna bounced back from a rare Bundesliga defeat to move level on points with table-topping Strum Graz last weekend. Die Veilchen have built their campaign upon a rock-solid record at the Generali Arena (W8-D1-L1) and a home showdown against struggling Austria Klagenfurt should give Stephan Helm’s side a strong chance of another three points.
Austria Vienna have won all seven of their matches when welcoming opponents from outside of the top-four this term, whilst all of their overall 12 Bundesliga triumphs have arrived alongside Under 4.5 Goals, making the 5/6 on a repeat an appealing play.
Klagenfurt have lost six of their last nine league matches, whilst their away record reads six defeats in six when travelling to teams in the top-seven, with the visitors scoring just twice in that same sample. The guests have managed only seven goals in their 10 away days and sit rock-bottom for away expected points (xP), facing 34 big chances in those 10 tussles.
Odds correct at 0945 GMT (06/0325)
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