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Football betting tips: Weekend
3pts Wrexham to score 2+ goals vs Wimbledon at evens (Sky Bet)
2.5pts Man Utd 5+ corners and most corners taken vs Spurs at 4/5 (Sky Bet)
2.5pts Gladbach vs Stuttgart – Over 2.5 Goal + BTTS at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
- The above are enhanced prices with a £25 max stake
Manchester United vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- Home 23/20 | Draw 14/5 | Away 2/1
Manchester United are very difficult to trust, even against a depleted Tottenham side. The Old Trafford outfit are rated as a mid-table side according to numerous major metrics; Erik ten Hag’s team have already been beaten in nine of their 20 Premier League outings, equalling their overall number of defeats from the 2022/23 league campaign.
Even so, the Red Devils have been dominating one specific part of the game: corners. Only three top flight sides are averaging more flag-kicks per-game than Man Utd’s 6.30 with the bulk of the damage arriving at Old Trafford; in front of their own supporters, Ten Hag’s team have taken Over 6.5 Corners in nine of 10 tussles, averaging a chunky 8.70 corners per-game.
Those lofty numbers have seen United win the corner battle in eight of their 10 home tussles, with six of those victories arriving by at least a two-corner margin. I’m therefore keen to support MAN UTD 5+ CORNERS & MAN UTD MOST CORNERS with Sky Bet when Tottenham pitch up on Sunday.
Spurs have only reached the five-corner threshold in four of 10 away days, with Ange Postecoglou’s charges conceding 7.70 corners per-game on their travels. During those 10 games as guests, Spurs have faced 6+ corners on eight occasions, and lost the corner count eight times, including trips to Wolves, Nottm Forest, Crystal Palace and Burnley.
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Stuttgart
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- Home 5/2 | Draw 3/1 | Away 10/11
The Bundesliga returns from its winter hibernation this weekend and I’m eager to support goals in Sunday’s late kick-off between Borussia Monchengladbach and Stuttgart – OVER 2.5 GOALS & BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE stands-out.
These two teams have been amongst the front-runners for high-scoring matches in the German top-flight, with the league already boasting a bulbous 3.36 goals per-game – 68% of showdowns have covered the Over 2.5 Goals line with 45% of fixtures featuring four strikes or more. Collectively, Gladbach and Stuttgart have seen 27/32 (84%) tussles go Over 2.5.
Marrying their records together, the pair have combined to score in all bar four of those dates, giving us a very strong platform to work from, whilst 13 of Gladbach’s 16 games have paid-out for Both Teams To Score backers. The underlying metrics also point towards an entertaining Borussia-Park encounter.
Of course, Serhou Guirassy is away on international duty for Stuttgart but the Swabians have still scored in four of the five fixtures he’s missed this season – striking at least twice on three occasions – and his absence is arguably evened out by Gladbach missing key defender Maxi Wober through suspension on Sunday.
Wrexham vs Wimbledon
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 10/11 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/5
Wrexham are within striking distance of the Sky Bet League Two summit. The big-budget Dragons have made a seamless adjustment to life in the EFL and will be targeting top honours between now and May. Phil Parkinson’s posse have tabled 10 triumphs in their past 14 league fixtures with the majority of their best work occurring at the Racecourse Ground.
The Welsh outfit return to headquarters for Saturday’s showdown with fellow high-flyers Wimbledon and we have the opportunity to back WREXHAM TO SCORE 2+ GOALS, a selection that’s already proven profitable in all 13 of the Robins’ previous home League Two encounters this season, a remarkable effort.
In those 13 contests, Wrexham have plundered 41 goals at an average of 3.15 per-game. Parkinson’s troops put four past a well-drilled Barrow side recently, and hit both Crewe and MK Dons for three here – all teams sitting inside the top-eight, as Wimbledon are. There’s therefore little reason to suggest the Dragons can’t repeat the feat on Saturday.
Wimbledon have the ability to be obdurate opposition, although the loss of strike pair Omar Bugiel and Ali Al-Hamadi has provoked a reshuffle. The Wombles were held 1-1 at second-bottom Forest Green last time out and shipped three against struggling Colchester previously, suggesting they can be got-at. The underlying metrics have also unimpressed.
Extend the Dons’ recent run to four games (including matches against Sutton and Crawley), and we can see Johnnie Jackson’s group have conceded a total expected goals (xG) value of 6.19 xG, allowed 61 shots with 43 of those attempts arriving from inside the penalty area – concerning numbers considering three of the four sides are in League Two’s bottom-three.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (11/01/23)
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