Mark O'Haire's football betting tips, best bets and nap: Raining goals
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Football betting tips: Weekend
2.5pts BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals in Atalanta vs Roma at 13/10 (Sky Bet)
- Enhanced price with a £25 max stake
Atalanta vs Roma
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Sunday
- Home 21/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 5/2
The top five finishers in Serie A this season will secure Champions League qualification for 2024/25 and the battle to secure a top-five berth has intensified over the past fortnight. With only three rounds to play, we’ve Bologna in fourth on 64 points, Atalanta in fifth on 60 (with a game in-hand), Roma also on 60 points and Lazio in seventh on 56.
Atalanta and Roma now go head-to-head in what promises to be a fascinating fixture with both sides eyeing UCL football. The duo have each been involved in Europa League action over the past fortnight and so an element of fatigue could play a part here, but considering the potential prize on offer, I’m anticipating a proactive approach from the two teams.
The pair provide plenty of flair in the final-third and so the opportunity to support a shootout appeals with Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score trading around the 6/5 (2.20) mark. Atalanta have fired a solitary Serie A blank since Christmas, whilst Roma have gotten on the scoresheet in all bar one of their own domestic dates this calendar year.
The numbers support us here with Atalanta seeing Overs pay in five of six home games against top-half teams, whilst Roma have clicked in the same market in 12 of their past 16 Serie A matches, including seven of eight away. The results from those eight road trips also encourage with the capital club seeing a 2-2, a 2-1, a 0-0, a 2-2, a 4-1, a 3-0, a 2-1 and a 3-1.
Already advised
- 3pts BTTS in both of Aalesund vs Valerenga and Ranheim vs Egersund at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
- 2.5pts BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals in Atalanta vs Roma at 13/10 (Sky Bet)
Aalesund vs Valerenga and Ranheim vs Egersund
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Norway’s second-tier – the OBOS-Ligaen – has gotten off to a lively start. Six rounds into the new campaign and the 1st Division is already recording 2.98 goals per-game, with 67% of fixtures providing profitable Both Teams To Score returns. I’m targeting two matches from Saturday’s schedule to support BTTS with the double paying an appealing price.
Aalesund and Valerenga both suffered Eliteserien relegation last year and the duo have found life difficult since dropping down a division. The pair cross swords on Saturday having seen Both Teams To Score bank in five of their respective six matches in the OBOS-Ligaen with each team delivering an average of 3.33 goals per-game thus far.
Meanwhile, Ranheim welcome joint-leaders Egersund. The struggling hosts have paid-out for BTTS backers in five of their first six league dates, whilst Egersund have posted profit in the same market across all five of their openers. The visitors’ outings have proven particularly eye-catching, returning a huge 4.40 goals per-game.
Collectively, the four teams in focus have scored in 21 of their respective 23 matches and managed to keep only two clean sheets in that same sample, suggesting we’ll see plenty of goalmouth action at both ends, giving us a good run for our money at 7/5 (2.43).
Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes
- Kick-off time: 02:30 BST, Sunday
- Home 3/4 | Draw 14/5 | Away 3/1
Major League Soccer continues to provide plenty of entertainment in its embryonic stage in 2024. Across both conferences, the Stateside division is boasting a 2.87 goals per-game average with 58% of contests featuring Over 2.5 Goals winners and 62% of matches delivering Both Teams To Score profit; I’m eager to support a repeat in Colorado.
Combining Over 2.5 and BTTS pays an appealing 19/20 (1.95) when the Rapids entertain San Jose in the early hours of Sunday morning. Impressively, these two teams have combined to see the Both Teams To Score part of this wager prove profitable in 17 of their 22 opening encounters – a tasty 78% hit-rate, keeping two clean sheets between them.
Colorado arrive in decent form (W4-D1-L1), striking at least twice in five of those six MLS dates with the same strike-rate occurring for Over 2.5 Goals hunters. However, the Rapids are also still searching for their first home shutout of the new campaign and are giving up a chunky 9.00 shots from inside the box per-game across their first 11 fixtures.
Meanwhile, San Jose remain rock-bottom of the West despite a 3-1 triumph over LAFC last time out (W2-D1-L8). The visitors have conceded a league-high 26 goals (shipping multiple strikes in nine of 11), though the Earthquakes have now notched on nine occasions themselves with matches averaging 3.91 goals per-game and 9/11 hitting the Over 2.5 mark.
Odds correct at 1000 BST (09/05/24)
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