Liverpool v Crystal Palace betting preview: Premier League predictions & best bets for midweek clash

Recommended bets

2pts Sadio Mane to make 2+ tackles at 5/6

1pt Liverpool to win and under 2.5 goals at 12/5

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Liverpool v Crystal Palace

• 2015 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
• Match Odds: Home 1/5 | Draw 17/4 | Away 10/1

Thanks to their draw in the Merseyside derby, and a so far ruthless Manchester City, Liverpool once again cannot clinch the title with victory, but they'll be desperate to get three points that will hasten their inevitable coronation.

Those of you who watched the match at Goodison will know it was far from a classic, with Everton content to sit deep and frustrate, ultimately having just 28% of the possession. And that could be a blue-print for what Liverpool will face for the remainder of the campaign.

I certainly expect Crystal Palace to replicate that game-plan on Wednesday night.

Jurgen Klopp talked in the build-up to the derby about the Reds needing to bring total intensity in an effort to make up for an understandable lack of sharpness, and while there was little work for their defenders to do, other than during a late Everton assault, there was no lack of pressing and tackling from the Reds' midfield and front three. Only Robert Firmino failed to make at least two tackles, and he was withdrawn in the 65th minute. Sadio Mane and Fabinho both made three.

With Klopp no doubt keen to further increase his calls for high-tempo play in Liverpool's second match back as they seek to return to their pre-shutdown, counter-pressing, 'heavy metal' football, those numbers shouldn't go down in a contest that's going to follow a similar pattern.

Although there were no fans inside Goodison, I'm still factoring in an element of derby motivation by not backing Mane to repeat his feat at 11/4 as a recommended bet, but it is very tempting.

One fewer tackle is tempting enough, especially when you consider Mane averages a smidgen under two tackles per game (1.81), only dipping under by virtue of a couple of late substitute showings and an appearance being quickly curtailed through injury.

• Click image for Wednesday's betting preview

Crystal Palace's phenomenal, under-the-radar season continued with a straightforward 2-0 victory at Bournemouth in their first game of the restart - a fourth win and fourth clean sheet in a row.

And their latest triumph was based on the tried and trusted method that has been adopted under Roy Hodgson, one based on organisation, discipline and pacy counter attacks.

Despite only rock bottom Norwich having scored fewer Premier League goals than the Eagles this term, they sit ninth and incredibly within four points of fifth-placed Manchester United, a position that could be good enough to secure Champions League qualification.

But I wouldn't go backing Palace at 100/1 for a top five finish just yet. Top six at 28/1 though...

Anyway, I digress. What you'd assume given the lacklustre efforts of Hodgson's men in front of goal, is that their defensive record would be exceptional relative to their league position. It isn't. They've conceded the sixth fewest number of goals and are ninth in the table, which is nothing remarkable. Nor is their record of 10 clean sheets, which puts them joint-fifth alongside Newcastle and Watford.

Quite simply, when they win, they win narrowly: eight of their 11 wins have been by the odd goal.

Palace have not hit the net more than twice in a match in all competitions this season, and 22 of their 30 league games have seen under 2.5 goals scored. That is 11/10 to happen on Wednesday.

Combine that with Liverpool's home record in the league: 22 straight wins, 37 wins and three draws in their last 40 games, unbeaten in 55 matches. A low-scoring, hard-fought home win is the smart bet.

A word of caution, especially for the superstitious amongst us, the last team to beat Liverpool at Anfield in the Premier League? You guessed it, Crystal Palace.

Christian Benteke struck twice to secure a 2-1 win on April 23, 2017.

Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)

Best bets:

• Sadio Mane to make 2+ tackles at 5/6
• Liverpool to win and under 2.5 goals at 21/10

Opta stats

• Liverpool have won their last five Premier League games against Crystal Palace since losing 1-2 at Anfield back in April 2017.
• Crystal Palace’s last three Premier League wins against Liverpool have all been at Anfield – in 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17.
• Liverpool have won their last 22 Premier League games at Anfield, the best ever winning run at home in English top-flight history. Indeed, the Reds are unbeaten in their last 55 home league games (W45 D10), with Crystal Palace the last side to win away at Anfield in the top-flight (2-1 in April 2017).
• After a run of scoring in 36 consecutive Premier League games, Liverpool have now failed to find the back of the net in two of their last three. They’ve dropped more points in these three games (5 – W1 D1 L1) than they had in their previous 38 league matches combined (4 – W36 D2 L0).
• Crystal Palace have won each of their last four Premier League matches, the longest current winning run in the competition. They’ve only won more consecutively in the competition twice – five in December 1992 and five in April 2014.
• Though they’ve scored fewer first-half goals than any other Premier League side this season (9), Crystal Palace were 2-0 ahead after just 23 minutes in their last league match. Having failed to score more than once in the first half of any of their opening 29 matches this season, the Eagles were the first side since the season resumed to net twice in the opening 45 minutes.
• Liverpool’s Sadio Mané has scored eight goals in 10 Premier League appearances against Crystal Palace, scoring exactly once in eight different games against them. His record of scoring in 80% of his appearances against Palace is the second-best ratio in Premier League history (minimum 10 games), behind Harry Kane against Arsenal (9/10, 90%).
• Of the 116 goalkeepers to have played at least 50 Premier League games, Liverpool’s Alisson has the best clean sheet ratio (54% - 32/59), while he also has the best minutes-per-goal conceded rate in the competition, conceding once on average every 159 minutes.
• Liverpool midfielder Fabinho could make his 50th Premier League appearance in this match. The Brazilian has been on the winning side in 23 of his 24 Premier League games at Anfield, the best win rate of any player to have played at least 20 times at the ground in the competition (96%).
• Crystal Palace’s Jordan Ayew is the joint-top scorer in the Premier League this season among players who haven’t scored more than once in a game (9, level with Neal Maupay). The Eagles are unbeaten in all nine games in which he’s scored this season (W7 D2).

Odds correct as of 0930 BST on 23/06/20

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