Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1.5pts Newcastle to qualify at 31/20 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Sergio Reguilon to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)
1pt Diogo Dalot to be carded at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Wednesday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Football
Home 23/20 | Draw 23/10 | Away 11/5
Manchester United took a pasting at the weekend at the hands of their city rivals, with the 3-0 scoreline kind on Erik ten Hag's men who shipped a whopping 4.00 xGA, making it by far and away their worst defensive display of the campaign according to xG.
Ten Hag's side look lost, lacking identity, structure and quality. They have already lost more times in their nine home games this season (4) than they did in 33 last season (2), with Brighton, Crystal Palace, Galatasaray and Manchester City the sides to have inflicted defeats.
Despite ringing the changes in the last round, Eddie Howe's side still knocked out the pre-tournament favourites Manchester City, who fielded a strong XI, and now get a crack at revenge against the team that beat them in the final of this competition last season.
What are the best bets?
The Magpies do have injuries, so Howe will make changes from the team that drew at Wolves at the weekend, but their depth is strong nowadays, and they will have ambitions of competing on all fronts this term.
They are the value play in this game, but rather than backing them to win in 90 minutes, taking the 13/10 about NEWCASTLE TO QUALIFY looks a cracking bet.
This gives us the added bonus of a Newcastle win on penalties, should the game end all-square after extra time, which wouldn't be a surprise.
Even with the changes, the Magpies will be playing against a mid-table team, with Man Utd ranking as bang average according to the underlying data.
As well as their obvious defensive issues, Ten Hag's men simply aren't generating opportunities in matches, mustering just 1.02 xGF per game over their last seven.
I'll also take a chance in the card markets for this contest, with Robert Jones a good appointment for this clash, averaging 4.83 cards per game this season.
We can't know for sure who will start at full-back for Manchester United in this game, but given their injury issues you'd expect to see DIOGO DALOT and SERGIO REGUILON in the line-up, and I'll back both TO BE CARDED as singles at 9/2 and 15/4 respectively.
- CLICK HERE to back Diogo Dalot to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Sergio Reguilon to be carded with Sky Bet
Despite issues of their own, Newcastle's style of play sees them fly down the flanks, with all of their wide players fast and tricky. This has led to plenty of opposing full backs getting booked this season.
In fact, the opposing right-back in Newcastle games has been carded eight of their 14 contests this term (57%), with the opposing left-backs picking up cautions in six of those games (43%).
Dalot has only been carded once this season, which perhaps explains his big price, but it is worth noting he picked up six yellows in 26 league games last, while Reguilon has been cautioned once in two starts for United this term.
You can back the double at 18/1 with bet365 if you want to, with BOTH opposing right and left-backs in Newcastle matches getting booked in the SAME game on three occasions this season.
BuildABet @ 37/1
- Newcastle to qualify
- Diogo Dalot to be carded
- Sergio Reguilon to be carded
Team news
Luke Shaw (muscle), Amad Diallo (knee), Tyrell Malacia (knee) and Lisandro Martinez (foot) are ruled out, while Jadon Sancho continues to be sidelined.
Neither Casemiro nor Aaron Wan-Bissaka were passed fit enough for the weekend, although both could be in with a chance of featuring here.
Raphael Varane, Sergio Reguilon, Mason Mount, Alejandro Garnacho and a fit-again Kobbie Mainoo could all come in for United.
Meanwhile, Newcastle are missing Harvey Barnes (ankle), Elliot Anderson (back), Jacob Murphy (shoulder), Lewis Miley (illness) and Alexander Isak (groin), while Sven Botman's knee problem is set to keep him out for longer than expected after a setback in his recovery.
Howe could again place his trust in the likes of Tino Livramento, Matt Targett, Joe Willock and Lewis Hall for this trip to Old Trafford.
Predicted line-ups
Man Utd: Onana; Dalot, Varane, Maguire, Reguilon; Amrabat, Eriksen; Antony, Mount, Garnacho; Hojlund.
Newcastle: Pope; Livramento, Lascelles, Dummett, Targett; Willock, Longstaff, Joelinton; Almiron, Wilson, Gordon.
Odds correct 1150 GMT (31/10/23)
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