Premier League betting tips: Manchester United v Leicester best bets and preview
Can Leicester capitalise on Manchester United changes on Tuesday? Tom Carnduff has three best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Manchester United v Leicester
0.5pts Caglar Soyuncu to score first at 70/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Caglar Soyuncu to score anytime at 30/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Jamie Vardy to have 1+ assists at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
Leicester would have been worried about their top-four status following a shock 4-2 defeat to Newcastle on Friday night. Things were made worse by Chelsea coming from behind to beat Manchester City on Saturday, but West Ham's loss to Everton leaves them five points clear of fifth with nine left to play for.
Liverpool have a game in-hand and are now their main competitors for Champions League football next season. Considering the final three games for the Foxes are Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham, getting something at Old Trafford would put them in a good position to just about keep hold of fourth.
For Manchester United, their focus will be on the Europa League final as City will win the title. They are ten points behind with only12 available and their 250/1 odds to win the Premier League relies on a spectacular collapse from Pep Guardiola's side. We could see some rotation here and that should benefit the visitors.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has been left furious by a schedule that has given his side three games in the space of five days but there weren't many other options for when that Liverpool game would be played. The integrity of the competition can hardly be discussed given the actions of the Old Trafford club in the past month.
What it does mean is that he may have to shuffle his pack here given the fact that they played on Sunday. Bruno Fernandes should play, he always does, but those around him are more open to rotation. Even with Leicester's shaky form at present, they will hold hope that they can get a result here.
The one key absence for United will be Harry Maguire. Solskjaer hinted that he wouldn't play all three games anyway but he could miss the remainder of the campaign with an injury picked up in the win at Aston Villa. What that creates is the possibility of striking at set-pieces for the Foxes.
Maguire averages four successful aerial duels per game, that is near enough double the next highest figure in this Manchester United squad. The concern for Solskjaer will be that Victor Lindelof and Eric Bailly average 3.8 aerial duels won per game between them - Maguire's absence from the backline could create an issue here.
There have only been a handful of United games without Maguire this season but PSG did capitalise from a corner when the centre-back was absent in their Champions League meeting at the beginning of the season - Anthony Martial directed the ball into his own net.
I'm willing to take a gamble on Leicester being able to score from a similar situation, and the prices available on CAGLAR SOYUNCU striking are worth backing. It's 70/1 that SOYUNCU SCORES THE FIRST GOAL of the game and that is the first of the two bets involving him here.
Soyuncu hasn't scored yet this season, and he did struggle in that Newcastle defeat, but Leicester will look to him to strike without Maguire in the United defence - and the absence of Jonny Evans in the Foxes' backline will place even more emphasis on Soyuncu to provide the attacking threat.
He wins an average of 2.6 aerial duels per game in a season disrupted by injury so he can challenge the Lindelof/Bailly combination. Soyuncu also sees 0.4 shots per 90 minutes which is the joint-highest of the regular Leicester centre-backs. Given the circumstances, 70/1 on the first goal is too generous.
Due to his huge first goalscorer price, we're also backing SOYUNCU TO SCORE ANYTIME at 30/1. This price is also with Betfair/Paddy Power and will be a 1pt play in case he scores later in the game. You could go each-way on the 70/1 price above but the each-way odds are around 23/1.
Staying with Leicester, the other price that stands out involves one of their forwards. While JAMIE VARDY has been known for his goals over the years, recent showings suggest that the 13/2 on VARDY TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS is worth a play instead.
With Kelechi Iheanacho hitting fine goalscoring form, Vardy has turned provider and has been racking up the assists as the season has progressed. Vardy has the same number of assists (2) in his last four Premier League games as goals in his last 12.
In fact, if we look at that period beginning after the 5-2 away win at Manchester City, Leicester's third league game of the season, Vardy has more assists (9) than goals (8). With the striker constantly a short price for a goal, as little as 6/5 in places for Tuesday night, the value play may now actually come in backing him for assists instead.
There is also a case for saying that Vardy should have had more assists in recent weeks. He's had 12 key passes across his last eight Premier League games - an average of 1.5 per 90 minutes. Looking at season averages, that figure would put him second in the Leicester squad in this area.
As mentioned above, I'm wary of the outright result, and in particular the price on a home victory, given the potential changes that will be made. United's focus may be on the Liverpool game on Thursday and ensuring they have their regular starters fit and ready to go then.
I'd settle on a draw but the better value comes in backing SOYUNCU and VARDY to have involvement in the goals.
Manchester United v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 0.5pts Caglar Soyuncu to score first at 70/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- 1pt Caglar Soyuncu to score anytime at 30/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- 1pt Jamie Vardy to have 1+ assists at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 0835 BST (10/05/21)
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