Premier League betting tips: Manchester United v Fulham best bets and preview
Manchester United can secure second place with a win over Fulham but Tom Carnduff thinks the visitors may have a route to goal.
Football betting tips: Manchester United v Fulham
2pts Joachim Andersen to have 1+ shots at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Joachim Andersen to score anytime at 28/1 (VBet)
We're now at the stage of the season where most teams have little to play for and this game is no exception. Fulham are already relegated while Manchester United will finish in the top-four - although a win here will guarantee their spot as runners-up to champions Manchester City.
One disappointing factor for United is their home form this season. They sit as the fifth-best home side in the division with just one game left to change that but they have enjoyed more success on the road. It's something they will need to address if they are to seriously contend for the title.
Fulham shouldn't cause them too many issues based on their showings this season. Scott Parker's side have won just five of their 38 top-flight games this season and they will, once again, have to look to build in the Sky Bet Championship. This is their final chance to claim a major scalp before dropping down a division.
Apart from wins away at Leicester and Liverpool, Fulham's form against the better sides isn't great. They've lost seven of their 11 games against the current top-six with six of those seeing them fail to score. However, the absence of Harry Maguire may give them a route to goal.
Fulham aren't prolific scorers from set-pieces, although Manchester United struggle to defend them and that is made even worse by Maguire's absence. The centre-back averages four successful aerial duels per game - the duo of Victor Lindelof and Eric Bailly combine for 3.9.
This led to a successful 30/1 tip for Caglar Soyuncu to score anytime in Leicester's win at Old Trafford last week, and the showings of Liverpool in their 4-2 win just days later gives hope that more set-piece goals could come against United before the season ends.
In their two games without Maguire, Manchester United have conceded from a set-piece and then saw both Liverpool centre-backs post a shot each. Combine this with them conceding from a corner without Maguire earlier on in the season against PSG and we can see how big of a problem this is.
We could be trying to work out if it's bad fortune or a genuine issue without Maguire there. Again, we're dealing with a small sample size but the centre-back sat out Europa League second leg games against Real Sociedad and then Granada - United conceded a shot to an opposition centre-back in both games.
The Carabao Cup victory over Brighton also saw both Lewis Dunk and Dan Burn have a shot each without Maguire in the back line. When you combine the games without Maguire and the attacking threat of the opposition defences, it's clear that this is becoming a weak point rather than coincidence.
Based on that and their defensive record of the last seven days, the 6/4 with Sky Bet on JOACHIM ANDERSEN HAVING 1+ TOTAL SHOTS looks really good value. This isn't a shot on target, that's just a shot and his average of 3.2 aerials won per 90 minutes gives hope to him getting the better of either United centre-back.
The Fulham defender sits just outside the top-ten for successful aerial duels among centre-backs in the Premier League this season so he has had opportunities to score. His shots count is also something that has developed significantly as the season has progressed.
Andersen's first 19 games brought just one shot - that came in his debut at West Brom. However, his last 11 games have seen a total of 12 shots. They have been coming against top-six sides too, with a shot away at Chelsea and one in the narrow home defeat to Tottenham during this run.
There are only a handful of games to work with but there is concern about United's set-piece defending without the aerial presence of Maguire there. It's been exposed in their last two games, and even with Fulham's goalscoring issues, it could become a problem again here.
Given the issues mentioned above, I'm also willing to have a small stakes play on ANDERSEN TO SCORE ANYTIME at a best price of 28/1. 25s and 22s are available elsewhere and they both look good prices - he scored against Leeds and they are the only side with a worse record than Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side at goals conceded from set-pieces.
Even with a Fulham goal, it's difficult to look past a home victory here, even with their form at Old Trafford being a small cause for concern compared with where they want to be. Fulham may have seen the majority of their points come on the road but I'm willing to side with their overall record against the top-six.
A finish in second will signal a decent enough season for United, who are likely to have one eye on the Europa League final at the end of the month. They may be made to worry on Tuesday night though, and ANDERSEN represents value given the past week for the hosts.
Manchester United v Fulham best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Joachim Andersen to have 1+ shots at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Joachim Andersen to score anytime at 28/1 (VBet)
Score prediction: Manchester United 3-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1100 BST (17/05/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
