“It’s ridiculous to talk about titles in January, so don’t do that.” Erik ten Hag’s dismissive response to Manchester United’s win in the derby last weekend perhaps seemed a little performative but the wisdom of the sentiment revealed itself at Selhurst Park.
- Published prior to Arsenal v Manchester United on Sunday
Sometimes absurd things happen. Sometimes you can control proceedings with the stoic intelligence of potential champions only to be on the receiving end of a player’s once-in-a-decade moment of brilliance, which is why a nine-point gap to the top is almost insurmountable, no matter the ifs and buts we lay down.
Beat Palace and win at the Emirates on Sunday and Man Utd will be just three points behind the leaders, they said. Football is rarely that simple, and in a sport riddled with chance, immaculate comebacks are considerably less likely than we imagine them to be.
Nevertheless the speed with which Ten Hag has advanced his principles and restructured Man Utd is astonishing. When he lost the first two matches of his tenure it was a truth universally acknowledged that United were a complete basket case; a club so deeply entrenched in crisis and mismanagement from top to bottom it would take years, possibly a generation, before they were ready to challenge again.
Instead, Ten Hag has laid down the foundation in the space of five months and suddenly it looks as though United are only a couple of signings away from being the finished article. How on earth did he do it?
Ten Hag has channeled Solskjaer
The revolution has not been tactical, or at least not in the way we expected. Ten Hag has been considerably more flexible in his approach than anticipated, not only encouraging individualism and in-game problem solving, and not only introducing his Ajax-inspired football very slowly, but abandoning his ideas altogether when the situation demands it.
To summarise his first half-year in the job look no further than the 2-1 victory over Manchester City last weekend. United sat deep and absorbed pressure before hitting on the counter-attack via Bruno Fernandes’s distribution to the quick forwards, relying on individual quality at key junctures over a grand tactical vision.
Man United 2-1 Man City
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) January 14, 2023
• xG: 1.68 - 0.70
Marcus Rashford's red-hot form continues as he scores the winner in the Manchester derby. pic.twitter.com/ofh2i9ycS2
To put it another way, it was pure Ole Gunnar Solskjaer: a pragmatic decision from a manager with the humility to prioritise results, and an acute sharp understanding that cultural change is more important than tactical change in his first year.
Midfield improvements huge
The single biggest reason for Man Utd’s success this season is the presence of Casemiro and Christian Eriksen in central midfield. Casemiro has been ludicrously good in sweeping up loose balls, anticipating opposition attacks to cut them short, and controlling the speed of a match with his metronomic possession and leadership qualities.
Eriksen’s role has been more in keeping with Ten Hag’s long-term tactical vision – breaking the lines with sharp forward passes - but together these two have shown the maturity and charisma to create a new United.
The swapping of decent players for world-class ones and the investment in experienced leaders who can better cope with the pressure of Old Trafford: it sounds simple when put like that, but it requires intelligent and ruthless man-management skills of the sort few thought Ten Hag possessed.
The way he has dealt with Cristiano Ronaldo, dropped Harry Maguire, and put Jadon Sancho on an individual training program all speak to the commanding authority Ten Hag holds, a quality that appears to have inspired improvements from the likes of Luke Shaw, Marcus Rashford, and the recently-wilting Fernandes.
Gradually dialling up the tactical principles
These elements came first, and indeed there are still many matches in which Man Utd’s rhythm stutters slightly only for their individual quality to power them through in key moments, Solskjaer style.
But that is not to say the tactical side is missing. Slowly but surely things are falling into place, and like Mikel Arteta’s early days at Arsenal the trick is to look at what is happening in the lulls, ignoring a match’s more spectacular highlights.
In possession, note how often United players will now begin runs in anticipation of being given the ball on the next pass, not the current one. Note how often the team are able to play one-touch passes in a short sequence, suggesting the moves are either pre-prepared or the players can trust exactly where their team-mates will be without looking. Note also how often the players are spread evenly across the pitch, already stood in triangular formations and covering every angle.
What we are witnessing here is Ten Hag’s coaching of the fine-tuned details; the elite tactical sophistication in positioning and movement that is required to manage at the highest level in 2023.
Sometimes this is leading to goalscoring opportunities, although for the time being these are generally improvised flashes of quality that come in the final third, where United arrive thanks to that more subtle tactical work. But one area in which it is clearly working is in the counter-press. United now swarm the opponent in packs as soon as the ball is lost, often winning possession and rarely becoming misshapen in the process. Here is a telling sign of diligent, deep positional work being coached.
Eventually it will click into a whole other gear, but not quite yet. Ultimately Ten Hag will want to see United incorporate more verticality into their possession, and while he will be pleased United top the charts for Opta’s measure of ‘direct attacks’ (49) it is not very Ten Hagian to see United sixth for total progressive passes (561), behind even Antonio Conte’s Tottenham. He will also want more from the press, and a significant improvement on United’s 13.8 PPDA, which is the tenth lowest in the division.
Some of that will come with more time and another summer of training. Some of it simply requires better players, namely a world-class winger and/or centre-forward, a new right-back, and a new goalkeeper.
The forward(s) are required for obvious reasons, and to complete a core of Raphael Varane, Casemiro, Eriksen, and Fernandes that has the potential to be among the most effective in Europe. A better right-back would give United more balance in attack and therefore greater variety and vertical penetration, while a goalkeeper with greater technical ability and sweeping is essential to playing progressive attacking football.
Ten Hag was right, then, to dismiss the title talk and it made sense that he did it so bluntly and calmly. Things are going according to plan. All that is required is investment and patience – albeit far less of either than anyone expected when Brentford blew them away in mid-August.
