Manchester City vs Young Boys betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Mohamed Ali Camara 2+ fouls at 12/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Man City to win and both teams to score at 5/2 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports)
- Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore) is +20pts in profit for the 2023/24 season
Manchester City have put their pre-international break blip firmly behind them - banishing the memories of three defeats in four games with four successive wins since and looking back to their imperious best in Saturday's 6-1 mauling of Bournemouth.
They've won all three of their Champions League Group G games by 3-1 scorelines this season, including the reverse fixture against Young Boys in Bern a fortnight ago, putting the reigning champions on the brink of qualification for the knockout phase.
Pep Guardiola's men will secure progress with victory - even a draw could do but with top spot usually earning an easier last-16 tie against a group runner-up, it is difficult to envisage them taking their feet off the gas at this stage.
Their Swiss visitors were flattered by the relatively slender margin of defeat two weeks ago, with the xG (Expected Goals) scoreline reading 0.43-4.25 in favour of City, suggesting Guardiola's men should have won far more comfortably.
What are the best bets?
As usual, the hosts are unbackable here in the majority of markets unless you like lumping on heavy odds-on near-certainties, but MAN CITY TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 5/2 looks much preferable to its 'win to nil' counterpart at 8/15.
In City's 12 wins this season, they have conceded in eight of those games. They're not quite as defensively rock-solid as they have been in the past, prone to the odd lapse or to allowing a well-beaten opponent a consolation.
Sheffield United, Fulham, West Ham, Red Star Belgrade, Wolves, Bournemouth and Young Boys themselves have all breached the City back-line this season and, as mentioned, they have conceded in every Champions League game thus far.
With City so heavily favoured, their most creative players are very short in the scorer and assists markets - and Guardiola's rotation policy makes such bets ones for punters to peruse once the teamsheets have been revealed.
The Young Boys line-up is far more predictable and I'm drawn to their somewhat ill-disciplined skipper MOHAMED ALI CAMARA TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at a very inviting 12/5.
The Guinea centre-back is averaging 1.6 fouls per game in the Swiss top flight this season, also leading the league with seven yellow cards in just 10 games.
The Champions League, of course, is a step up in quality, and that's evidenced by his eight fouls in three games thus far, including four in the reverse fixture alone. He's a big price to commit half as many this time against Grealish, Foden and co.
BuildABet @21/1
- Both teams to score
- Camara 2+ fouls
- Man City -1 handicap
- Young Boys 13+ fouls
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Camara is not the only regular offender in the fouls stakes for Young Boys - they are averaging 13.73 transgressions per game in league and Europe this season. We can expect a similar number against ball-hogs City.
Adding City -1 handicap brings the BAB to 21/1. While City are conceding more frequently than in past seasons, they are still winning games comfortably with four 3-1 victories, plus a 5-1 and 6-1 in the bag already this term.
This should be a case of men against Young Boys.
Score prediction: Man City 4-1 Young Boys (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Team news
Guardiola is unlikely to risk goal machine Erling Haaland after he came off with a twisted ankle at half-time against the Cherries on Saturday, meaning Julian Alvarez will probably lead the line for City. Kevin de Bruyne remains out long-term.
The City boss made several changes for the reverse fixture between the sides and could again shuffle his pack with Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, Rico Lewis, Jack Grealish and Phil Foden among those who could return to the XI.
The visitors will be without midfielder Lukasz Lakomy due to a foot injury while striker Meschak Elia, scorer of Young Boys' goal against City in Bern, could require a fitness test after coming off with a knock late on in their weekend win at FC Winterthur.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester City: Ederson; Akanji, Dias, Gvardiol; Walker, Rodri, Lewis, Grealish; Doku, Alvarez, Foden
Young Boys: Racioppi; Blum, Camara, Benito, Garcia; Males, Lauper, Monteiro; Ugrinic; Nsame, Elia
Match facts
- Manchester City have won two of their three UEFA Champions League games against Swiss teams, although both wins were away from home. At the Etihad, the Citizens suffered a 2-1 defeat to Basel in March 2018, when Basel were managed by current Young Boys manager Raphael Wicky.
- In all European competitions, Young Boys are winless in all five away matches in England (D2 L3), failing to beat four different teams in this run: Spurs (L1), Liverpool (D1), Everton (L1) and Man Utd (D1 L1).
- Having won their opening three UEFA Champions League matches this season, Manchester City are looking to win their first four group games for a third time, also doing so in 2017-18 and 2020-21. They could become only the fourth holders to win their first four games of the next season, along with Bayern Munich (2013-14 and 2020-21) and Real Madrid (2014-15).
- Young Boys have never won away from home in the UEFA Champions League, drawing two and losing five of their seven away trips. They have avoided defeat in each of the last two, however, drawing 1-1 against Manchester United and 2-2 versus Crvena Zvezda.
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 27 home games in the UEFA Champions League (W25 D2). Only one English team has ever had a longer run without a home defeat in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League, with Liverpool going 30 home games without a loss between 1976 and 2001 (W26 D4).
- Young Boys – who hold the UEFA Champions League record for most games in the competition without a clean sheet (15) – have faced the second-most shots (67), the joint most shots on target (32) and have the second-highest expected goals against figure (9.6) of any side in the group stages this season.
Odds correct 1130 GMT (06/11/23)
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