Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Julian Alvarez to score anytime at 11/8 (bet365)
Aside from Manchester City’s price of 1/8, Opta’s statistics probably best epitomise the lopsided nature of this second leg.
Their model suggests Pep Guardiola’s side have a measly 1.3% chance of being eliminated on Wednesday.
For context, the Cityzens do have a two goal cushion, they have not lost at the Etihad all season and no Pep-led side has ever been eliminated from a two-legged Champions League tie after winning the first leg away from home.
What's more, Copenhagen have never won on English soil in a European competition in seven attempts, they have not even found the net in any of their last four visits.
The visitors will take a shred of encouragement from the timing of this fixture with it coming in between a Manchester derby and a trip to Anfield on Sunday but all told, things look bleak for the Danes in Manchester.
What are the best bets?
Nobody wins when trying to second guess Pep but whatever side he opts to deploy on Wednesday, JULIAN ALVAREZ should be amongst the eleven purely because he did not start in the Manchester Derby on Sunday.
During the World Cup winners cameo at the weekend he notched his 23rd goal contribution of the season when he set up Phil Foden’s second goal.
All told, Alvarez has netted 19 times for club and country this term, four of which have come in this competition, a feat made even more impressive by the fact he has only started one game on the continent.
To put that further into perspective, Alvarez is averaging 2.32 goals per 90 by finding the net every 39 minutes on average. Gabriel Jesus has the next best minutes per goals average with 81.
La Araña (the spider) will fancy his chances of adding to his tally in a game where his side are odds on to score at least three. So backing the Champions League's most clinical goalscorer this season TO SCORE ANYTIME certainly appeals.
BuildABet @ 120/1
- Both teams to score
- Julian Alvarez to score anytime
- Mohamed Elyounoussi 3+ tackles
- Jordan Larsson To Commit 3+ fouls
Mohamed Elyounoussi completed four tackles in the first leg, attempting six. Although on paper the former Southampton winger started on the right of a front three, City’s domination meant he did more defending then he did attacking.
In this competition, Elyounoussi has averaged two tackles a game and looks set for another busy evening at the Etihad.
In his only Champions League start this term, Jordan Larsson committed three fouls against Galatasaray and in the 31 minutes he has played since, committed another two. The Swede is expected to lead the line on Wednesday and his price to commit another three fouls beefs up this bet builder nicely.
Team news
Fresh off the back of a derby day win, with a two goal cushion and a huge Premier League match with Liverpool on the immediate horizon, Pep Guardiola should rotate on Wednesday.
This could see Oscar Bobb, Manuel Akanji, Rico Lewis, Mateo Kovacic, Matheus Nunes and Julian Alvarez get the nod from the off at the expense of Kevin De Bruyne, Rodri and John Stones.
Jack Grealish is the hosts only expected absentee, the England international is struggling with a groin issue.
As for the visitors, Copenhagen are without Lukas Lerager, Theo Sander, Davit Khocholava and Viktor Claesson on Wednesday. Emil Hojlund, the brother of Rasmus, faces a late fitness test.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester City: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Ake, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Lewis; Bobb, Nunes, Doku; Alvarez
Copenhagen: Grabara; Jelert, Vavro, McKenna, Diks; Goncalves, Falk, Mattsson; Elyounoussi, Larsson, Achouri
Match facts
- Manchester City remain unbeaten against FC København in European competition (W3 D2), while the last meeting between the sides at the Etihad Stadium ending in a 5-0 win for the Citizens (in October 2022).
- FC København have never won away from home against English opposition in European competition, drawing two and losing five of their previous seven attempts. The Danish side have also failed to score a goal in each of the last four in this run, all of which have been in the UEFA Champions League.
- Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola has never been eliminated from a two-legged UEFA Champions League tie after winning the first leg away from home, progressing on all previous nine occasions when doing so (six times with Man City, twice with Barcelona, and once with FC Bayern München).
- This will be just FC København’s fourth game in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League, while they’re winless in the previous three (D1 L2). They’ve not won away from home in the competition since December 2016 (2-0 v Club Brugge) and have only scored two goals in their six away trips since that last victory (D2 L4).
- Manchester City have won each of their last nine games in the UEFA Champions League and could become just the third side to win 10+ in a row in the competition, after Real Madrid (a run of 10 in February 2015) and FC Bayern München (a run of 15 in November 2020 and a 10-game run in November 2013).
- Manchester City have scored at least three goals in each of their last eight home games in the UEFA Champions League, and could become the first to do so in as many as nine in a row at home in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (three other teams previously had a run of eight: FC Bayern München in 2016, Real Madrid in 1964 and Benfica in 1962).
- Manchester City have the highest pass completion rate under pressure of any team in the UEFA Champions League this season (90.6%), while FC København (76.2%) have the lowest such completion rate among all teams involved in the round of 16.
- Manchester City’s two top scorers in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League are Kevin De Bruyne (12) and Bernardo Silva (11), both of whom netted in the first leg against FC København. De Bruyne also assisted in that match, and has been directly involved in 20 goals in his last 22 appearances in the knockout stages of the competition (10 goals, 10 assists – excluding finals).
- As of the end of the first leg matches in the round of 16, the three players who had applied the most pressures in the UEFA Champions League this season were FC København trio Mohamed Elyounoussi (683), Viktor Claesson (651) and Elias Achouri (628).
- Phil Foden has been directly involved in seven goals for Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League this season (four goals, three assists), already his most in a single campaign. The 23-year-old also leads all players in the competition this term for passes that have broken the opposition’s defensive line (17).
Odds correct 1800 GMT (05/03/24)
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