Manchester City face Liverpool for the second time in a week and Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets for the FA Cup semi-final.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Over 3.5 goals in 90 minutes at 15/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Nathan Ake to be shown a card at 7/1 (Unibet)
Less than a week after they played out a highly-entertaining 2-2 draw at the Etihad, Liverpool and Manchester City meet again with a spot in the FA Cup final on offer for the winner.
Both progressed in the Champions League in midweek with Liverpool drawing 3-3 with Benfica - enough to go through 6-4 on aggregate - while City survived a Royal Rumble in the Wanda Metropolitano as they saw off Atletico Madrid.
It should mean that the Reds are better placed for progression here but City's squad means that they can cope with injuries a lot better than others. It's another tough one to call between these two talented sides - at least there should be more strong showings in attack.
Kick-off time: 15:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: BBC One
Venue: Wembley Stadium
Manchester City 29/20 | Draw 5/2 | Liverpool 7/4
This fixture is one that usually delivers goals and has done on both occasions this season. Two 2-2 draws did little to influence the Premier League title race but did provide some memorable contests.
This game should be no different and the pitch at Wembley should suit both sides. They met at Wembley in the Community Shield in 2019 and while it was 1-1, there were a total of 12 shots on target across the 90 minutes.
Based on what we have seen, there is appeal in taking the 15/8 available on OVER 3.5 GOALS in normal time. As said above, that would have been a winner on both occasions this season.
Liverpool's defence looked nervy in that draw on Sunday, never really appearing settled as City found ways to get shots towards goal. That is understandable in a way given that it's a meeting between two of the best attacks in Europe.
That's reflected in the fact that over 3.5 goals is a regular winning selection for this fixture. Five of the last six meetings have seen four or more scored across 90 minutes.
Add in that Liverpool rested a number of key players against Benfica and they should be fit and firing as per usual. Even with Mohamed Salah's recent quiet form in front of goal, his underlying numbers show that he is still getting opportunities.
There were five cards shown last weekend and we should see more given the competitive nature of this fixture. At a huge price of 7/1, I like the gamble on NATHAN AKE TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
The injury to Kyle Walker in midweek means that Joao Cancelo could move to right-back and the left-back slot will need to be filled. Oleksandr Zinchenko is an option but Pep Guardiola has preferred Ake in that role in recent weeks.
It also makes sense to have a more defensive-minded player down that side given that he'll be up against Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold. We can't guarantee he'll start but if he's at left-back then the 7/1 will look an incredibly high price.
Ake was booked against Atletico despite replacing Walker in the 73rd minute. While the nature of the game played its part, Ake can pick up a more conventional booking on Saturday.
Manchester City v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Over 3.5 goals in 90 minutes at 15/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- 1pt Nathan Ake to be shown a card at 7/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1100 BST (14/04/22)
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