Manchester City look to get back on track as they host Aston Villa in the late Super Sunday game. Liam Kelly has two bets for the fixture.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Manchester City to win with -1 goal handicap at 8/11 (PaddyPower, Betfair Sportsbook)
0.5pts Emi Buendía to be shown a card at 4/1 (Unibet)
Since the 1-0 defeat to Tottenham last weekend (xG: TOT 1.32 - 1.08 MCI), and during for that matter, the discourse surrounding Manchester City has been rather tiresome.
Granted, they were very disappointing and appeared at a loss as to how to break down Spurs, even looking thin from a squad depth perspective, but there has been an overreaction to that game.
The hysteria seen in regards to City's current form does mean there is rare value in backing Pep Guardiola's side this Sunday, though.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Man City 2/9 | Draw 21/4 | Aston Villa 12/1
While City do appear a little disjointed in attack, with Erling Haaland cutting a frustrated figure last Sunday, their defence has remained stout, perhaps due to City looking to gain yet more control over matches.
Additionally, I don't see an issue with scoring goals becoming too much of a problem for a side with such attacking talent, especially against an Aston Villa side that were cut open repeatedly when hosting Leicester last week (xG: AVL 1.74 - 1.86 LEI).
Villa have been suspect at the back in a variety of matches recently, too, so City can rebound with authority to quieten some enthusiastic critics.
With the above in mind, MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN WITH A -1 GOAL HANDICAP is a solid foundation for betting on the match-up.
Another bet that makes appeal is the 4/1 available about EMI BUENDIA TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
Buendía has shown himself to be in good form during the tenure of Unai Emery. His endeavour is clearly something Villa's manager likes, but it does get him into trouble at times.
Only Douglas Luiz (25) has a higher total than the 22 fouls committed by Buendía season, despite the Argentinian logging just 1,335 minutes played.
He has escaped the punishment of receiving a card up to now, but the possibility of repeated offences against a ball-dominant Manchester City makes it a nice play at the prices.
Manchester City v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Manchester City to win with -1 goal handicap at 8/11 (PaddyPower, Betfair Sportsbook)
- 0.5pts Emi Buendía to be shown a card at 4/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1530 GMT (10/02/23)
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