Manchester City: Premier League champions are shining outside the spotlight
"Manchester City have developed into an immovable object at the back this season. If they return to an unstoppable force going forward without losing their new-found rigidity, it's difficult to see any team competing at the same level."
That was my deduction when looking at the numbers behind City's impressive 2020/21 title success in May; startling jump ahead to the possibility that there could be more to come from Pep Guardiola's side, an outfit that had the Premier League wrapped up with three games to spare and came desperately close to winning the quadruple.
Sure enough, although it's occurred somewhat under the radar, City have started the current campaign in a style that will strike fear into any and every team.
No Kane, no problem
Perhaps the eventual failure to prise Harry Kane away from Daniel Levy's clutches is partly to blame for the lack of fanfare surrounding the club's early efforts, an unjustifiable indication to some that City could still be a piece short after losing Sergio Agüero in the summer.
In reality, Agüero made only a small contribution in City's triumph last term, logging just 594 minutes, making his absence more than manageable.
With the significant addition being £100m man Jack Grealish, who was as close as any other player in terms of creative output to Kevin De Bruyne prior to his mid-season injury last term, it's easy to see how Pep's side would improve in attack — even without signing Kane.
Admittedly, they were neither an immovable object or an unstoppable force in the first game of the new season. It was a display full of promise, though, despite being beaten 1-0 by a Kane-less Spurs, posting solid underlying numbers at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (xG: TOT 1.30 - 2.41 MCI).
City's hoodoo at Spurs
We can maybe forgive them that result considering it is an all too familiar feeling when visiting that venue, creating an abundance of opportunities to no avail.
In four visits to the North London location, City have been defeated four times, recording a total of 8.96 xG without hitting the back of the net. To put that kind of underperformance into perspective, Infogol's model calculates a miniscule 0.01% chance that the champions would score no goals from those chances.
Pep's side have conceded six goals from 2.90 xG in those matches, too, left deflated by goals allowed on the counter-attack after dominating every game. It is a habit City simply cannot seem to shake against Spurs.
Speaking of habits, City bounced back immediately with a pair of home games ending in the same 5-0 scoreline often set aside for the annual demolition handed out to Burnley.
Granted, Norwich are newly-promoted and Arsenal were forced to play with 10-men from the 35th minute mark onwards, but the manner of the two facile victories was impressive, enforcing complete control on both opponents.
City limited Norwich and Arsenal to 0.24 xG combined. Each recorded just one attempt on goal, while being peppered by shots at the other end of the pitch.
Still, Guardiola's men were perhaps most impressive in their last league outing, a 1-0 win against Leicester at the King Power Stadium.
A meeting between the sides at a similar point last season helped provoke a significant shift in City's approach, driven to a more controlled, defensively solid style after the humbling 5-2 defeat to the Foxes was followed by a shaky display in Leeds.
There was no such trouble in the most recent fixture, with City dominating from the outset. The narrow winning scoreline doesn't represent the gulf between the two teams, encapsulated perfectly by the xG totals (LEI 0.81 - 3.02 MCI).
With three wins from four dominant performances, it's no surprise to see Manchester City leading the way in regards to expected goal difference (+9.8 xGD), edging out Liverpool in that metric.
De Bruyne and Foden to return
The fact that City have accomplished the above without Kevin De Bruyne or Phil Foden is a scary thought, too, with the pair missing time through injuries sustained at Euro 2020. Both will be given minutes in upcoming matches and integrated into a team that is performing as well as it ever has under Guardiola.
Yes, it is a small sample size, but the numbers speak volumes, averaging a +2.45 xG per game margin between themselves and their opponents across the opening four matches of the Premier League season, a stretch which was hardly thought of as a simple start.
Southampton are next on the chopping block, before we're treated to two spectacular match-ups, with City travelling to Stamford Bridge and Anfield respectively to face Chelsea and Liverpool.
Fixtures that will be a true marker of the incredibly exciting title race we all have to look forward to. On showings thus far, Manchester City are correct favourites.
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