A mouthwatering tie between Manchester City and Bayern Munich gets underway on Tuesday. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pt Benjamin Pavard to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)
1pt John Stones to be carded at 17/2 (Unibet, BetUK)
What a titanic tussle we have on our hands, with the two pre-tournament favourites meeting at the quarter-final stage.
Pep Guardiola takes on his former team, Joao Cancelo is eligible to take on his parent club, and Thomas Tuchel takes over a side mid-season in a bid to repeat his heroics of 2021 when his Chelsea side beat Manchester City in the final of this competition.
The storylines are everywhere, and while this will be a high-quality encounter, the first leg factor - and Tuchel's appointment - has me believing this opening contest could be a tight one with few scoring chances.
Under 2.5 Goals nearly made the staking plan, but my head was turned by the refereeing appointment for this match.
Jesus Gil Manzano is the man in the middle, and he has been in fantastic form from a card brandishing perspective of late.
He has averaged 5.4 cards per game this season, and flashed 10 yellows in his last Champions League outing when overseeing Dortmund's clash with Chelsea.
In fact, across his five Champions League matches this term, Manzano has dished out 31 yellow cards at an average of 6.2 per game.
You could say he loves the spotlight.
Even more fascinating is that he has shown eight red cards in his last 17 games across all competitions, just again highlighting how prolific he can be from a distributing perspective.
So, with a good appointment and a tight, hard-fought contest expected, we'll throw a few darts at player cards.
We'll start with the shorter-priced pick, which is BENJAMIN PAVARD TO BE CARDED at 15/4.
Pavard has played at right-back in two of Tuchel's three games in charge as Bayern boss, only operating at centre-back at the weekend due to Dayot Upamecano's suspension, with the German tactician opting for a back four system.
The Frenchman has been trusted in that position, and will likely play there on Tuesday, which means a direct match-up with Jack Grealish - one of Europe's trickiest players.
City's new system has seen Grealish find more space than ever since his move, with the Englishman having more one-on-one opportunities which has seen his attacking output increase.
Jack Grealish: Now a key Manchester City player and thriving under Pep Guardiola ⭐️🔵 pic.twitter.com/AI83J4k5Lm
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Pavard will have his hands full then, and likely isolated, which leaves him vulnerable and rife for a card. He has been cautioned in three of his last six starts for Bayern, and also picked up a yellow card on international duty against Republic of Ireland, so Pavard's name is no stranger to the referees notebook.
A longer priced play that makes appeal is for JOHN STONES TO BE CARDED at a huge price of 17/2.
The fact he was booked at the weekend against Southampton only enhances my fancy for this bet, but the main reason I like the pick is due to the positional and tactical tweaks that have seen Stones operate as a part of a midfield two in the last few games.
It looks like a genius move by Pep, and Stones has - for the most part - taken to the switch like a duck to water, but I still think there will be some lack of positional awareness at this early stage that could see him get his pocket picked and commit fouls.
Bayern have a number of nippy midfielders and forwards that could cause issues for Stones as he adapts to his new position, and given he will likely be in the thick of the action, the price available for him to be booked looks too big.
He has a fairly clean disciplinary record over the last few seasons, but that's when he has been playing at centre-back, and this position switch will see him on the ball more and will see him called to defensive action more, which should increase the number of fouls and cards in the coming weeks.
Manchester City v Bayern Munich best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pt Benjamin Pavard to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)
- 1pt John Stones to be carded at 17/2 (Unibet, BetUK)
Score prediction: Manchester City 1-0 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1640 BST (10/04/23)
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