Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Over 10.5 corners at 4/5 (General)
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 10/3 | Draw 16/5 | Away 7/10
While they possess a game in-hand over those sitting above them, Luton will want to ensure that the current four-point gap between themselves and safety doesn't continue to get wider.
They've had a tough run of fixtures - the visit of Aston Villa in Saturday's late kick-off is hardly ideal.
Unai Emery's men are unbeaten in their last five games away from home in all competitions, with recent trips to Fulham and Sheffield United ending in victory.
Only Burnley (5) and Sheffield United (8) have picked up fewer points than the Hatters at home this season. As the prices indicate, it points to an away win.
What are the best bets?
Luton's form is a concern when it comes to their survival hopes, although not surprising on pre-season expectations. Yet they have been competitive in contests.
The defeat to Sheffield United was a missed opportunity, but other games on this winless run have come against Liverpool, Newcastle and both Manchester clubs.
With the prices available, taking OVER 10.5 CORNERS delivers appeal at 4/5.
What helps this selection is the fact that Luton often concede the first goal in home contests. Only Sheffield United (11) have gone behind more often than Luton (8) in front of their own supporters this season.
They're chasing games more than the rest of the league. This benefits the potential of corners in home games as the crowd looks to encourage them back into the contest.
It's also why they see more corners in the second-half of games. They had one in the first-half vs Man United but seven after the break. It was 5-8 vs Sheffield United, 3-4 vs Chelsea.
Given Villa's attacking mentality is outlined in the fact they've taken the fifth-most corners in the Premier League. Expect this to be a game where Villa take the most in the first-half, followed by Luton in the second.
BuildABet @ 30/1
- Luton 6+ corners
- Teden Mengi to be shown a card
- BTTS in the second-half
Click here to back with Sky Bet
Luton's contribution to the corner count should mostly come in the second-half if they are trailing.
In 13 home games, 63% of their goals have come after the break, while BTTS IN THE SECOND-HALF has landed in Kenilworth Road contests against Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United.
TEDEN MENGI has committed two or more fouls in two of his last four league games at home, meaning he could catch the referee's attention in Saturday's late kick-off.
Team news
Luton will be without Mads Andersen and Marvelous Nakamba, while forwards Elijah Adebayo and Jacob Brown may not be fit enough to feature.
Defender Amari'i Bell is also a major doubt for the home side.
Villa could be without seven players for the trip south. Emiliano Buendia and Tyrone Mings remain long-term injuries for Unai Emery.
Jhon Duran, Boubacar Kamara and Diego Carlos are out, with the fitness of Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres being monitored. They could be forced into fielding a weakened back line.
Predicted line-ups
Luton XI: Kaminski; Mengi, Osho, Burke; Ogbene, Lokonga, Barkley, Doughty; Morris, Chong; Woodrow.
Aston Villa XI: Martinez; Cash, Lenglet, Torres, Moreno; Tielemans, Luiz; Ramsey, McGinn, Bailey; Watkins.
Match facts
- Aston Villa have won seven of their last eight Premier League games against promoted sides (D1), winning both away games in this run by an aggregate score of 8-1.
- Luton have lost five of their last seven Premier League home games (W2), including the last two in a row. They last lost three consecutively at home in April 2016 in League Two, while they last did so in the top-flight in March 1989.
- Aston Villa have won back-to-back Premier League away games for the first time this season, beating Sheffield United 5-0 and Fulham 2-1. They last won three in a row on the road in Unai Emery’s first three away games in charge between November and January last season.
- Luton Town have scored at least once in each of their last 13 Premier League games, with only Tottenham (37) on a longer current scoring streak in the competition. The Hatters have scored in 12 of their 13 games at Kenilworth Road this term, failing only against Tottenham in October (0-1).
- Only Arsenal (14) have scored more headed goals in the Premier League than Luton this season (12), with the Hatters having the highest share of headed goals in the competition so far this term (34%). However, no side has conceded fewer headers than Aston Villa (1), accounting for just 3% of their total goals conceded.
- Aston Villa have scored more first half goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (27), while only Manchester City (13) have been leading at half-time more often than the Villans (12). However, Luton have conceded the lowest share of their Premier League goals before the interval this season (33% - 17/51).
- Luton’s Carlton Morris has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League games (4 goals, 2 assists), and has either scored (2) or assisted (1) a goal in each of his last three at Kenilworth Road.
- With 14 goals and 10 assists, no player has been involved in more Premier League goals this season than Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (24). He’s scored once and assisted four goals in his last two games against promoted sides.
Odds correct 1100 GMT (01/03/24)
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